| 00:00:30 |
Barfi, Barak - Research Fellow
WELCOMED ME WHEN I WAS IN THE PROVINCE OF ALEPPO. AND RECENTLY HE WAS KILLED IN FIGHTING IN THE CITY OF ALEPPO. I WANT TO START TODAY BY TALKING ...
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| 00:16:32 |
Bergen, Peter L. - Director
WHAT HAPPENED IN BENGHAZI HAD NOTHING TO DO WITH THE PROTESTS. WE KNOW BASED ON DISCUSSIONS WITH PEOPLE THAT WERE
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| 00:16:40 |
Barfi, Barak - Research Fellow
THERE THAT NIGHT, AND IS A HIGHLY SOPHISTICATED ATTACK, COORDINATION, THE WEAPONS THAT THE PEOPLE USED AND THE USE, THE BLAME RESTS ON AN ORGANIZATION...
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| 00:17:53 |
Barfi, Barak - Research Fellow
NIGHT. >> INTERVIEW, HAVING SPENT SIX MONTHS IN LIBYA UNDER GADDAFI'S FALL, DO YOU SAY THE ATTACK ON THE CONFLICT IS SORT OF AN
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| 00:18:03 |
Bergen, Peter L. - Director
OUTLIER FOR SORT OF REPRESENT FUTURE THAT BE A? >> THAT'S AN EXCELLENT QUESTION. THE PROBLEM IN LIBYA IS THAT THERE'S JUST NO SECURITY. WE SAW THIS...
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| 00:18:20 |
Barfi, Barak - Research Fellow
CONGRESSIONAL TESTIMONY RECENTLY. IN THE SECURITY SITUATION IS MUCH WORSE THAN WE FIRST IMAGINE BASED ON SOME OF THESE DOCUMENTS. THE SECURITY SERVICES...
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| 00:20:06 |
Bergen, Peter L. - Director
10, WHERE RITCHIE SCORED THE SITUATION IN LIBYA? >> I SPENT A LOT OF TIME DURING THE WAR THERE AND I SAW THE SECURITY SITUATION PROGRESSIVELY DETERIORATE...
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| 00:20:19 |
Barfi, Barak - Research Fellow
SLOPE. I THINK RIGHT AFTER THE AMERICAN AFFECTATION IN 2003, TORE STRAIGHT BEFORE APRIL 2004, WHEN HE HAD THE INCIDENCE, WE SEE PROGRESSIVE DETERIORATION...
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| 00:20:57 |
Bergen, Peter L. - Director
TO COMPARE CHIRAC, RIGHT-CLICK >> I THINK IT'S A 90% ERA AND 10% SUNNI ARAB IN THE REST ARE MINORITIES, SO YOU'RE NOT GOING TO SEE THE MINORITY
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| 00:21:10 |
Barfi, Barak - Research Fellow
SPLIT. THE ROYALISTS ARE WE. THE GADHAFI LOYALIST, THEY ARE ENGAGED IN SOME TYPE OF ATTACKS, BUT THEY'RE NOT AS STRONG AS WHAT WE SAW IN THE INSURGENCY...
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| 00:21:47 |
Bergen, Peter L. - Director
EXAGGERATED PROBLEM? >> WELL, THE THING IS WE THOUGHT THERE WERE SMALL NUMBERS OF FOREIGNERS EARLY ON AND THEY WERE JUST
|
| 00:21:58 |
Barfi, Barak - Research Fellow
IN THE SAME UNTIL THE ATTACK. AND THEN WE WERE SHOCKED BY THE LEVEL OF SOPHISTICATION. >> SO YOU ARE SAYING THEN THE ATTACK WAS NOT AN OUTLIER, OR PERHAPS...
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| 00:22:14 |
Bergen, Peter L. - Director
HARBINGER? >> IS POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE MORE ATTACKS LIKE THIS IN THE FUTURE. >> OF NISEI FOREIGNERS, WHERE ARE
|
| 00:22:22 |
Barfi, Barak - Research Fellow
THEY FROM? >> THAT'S THE THING. WE DON'T KNOW EXACTLY WHERE THEIR FRIENDS, BUT THE PEOPLE
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| 00:22:28 |
Bergen, Peter L. - Director
INVOLVED IN THE ATTACKS
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| 00:22:32 |
Barfi, Barak - Research Fellow
DON'T APPEAR, BASED ON DISCUSSIONS WITH THE PEOPLE WHO WERE THERE THAT NIGHT, JUST DON'T FIT IN WITH THE LIBYANS. >> LET'S TURN TO ALEPPO FOR A MOMENT....
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| 00:22:53 |
Bergen, Peter L. - Director
OF WHICH YOU DID IN ALEPPO, WHAT SHE SAW, WHAT RISKS YOU TOOK, THE KIND OF DANGERS THAT INDEPENDENT RESEARCHERS, JOURNALISTS LIKE YOURSELF A STRANGER...
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| 00:23:15 |
Barfi, Barak - Research Fellow
HOURS A DAY TO THE ATTACKS AND YOU BASICALLY CAN'T RUN AWAY FROM FIGHTER JETS. SO THAT'S A PROBLEM. WHEN WE'RE IN PLACES LIKE IRAQ, AMERICAN BASES,...
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| 00:24:24 |
Bergen, Peter L. - Director
YOU WOULD WANT TO SAY PUBLICLY? AND WHAT DID YOU GO EXACTLY? >> I WAS THERE IN SEPTEMBER AND BASICALLY AT THIS POINT IN TIME, THE REBELS HAD TAKEN OVER...
|
| 00:24:37 |
Barfi, Barak - Research Fellow
ANY MOVE AROUND IN THOSE AREAS. BUT THERE ARE SOME ROWS THAT ARE VERY DANGEROUS BECAUSE SOME OF THESE ROADS ARE IN THAT THE REGIME CONTROLS AND THEY...
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| 00:25:08 |
Bergen, Peter L. - Director
INTACT TAKES? >> BASICALLY WHEN HE IS IN OR FORSAKE US, THEY'RE JUST TRYING TO SCARE PEOPLE BECAUSE THERE'S A RANDOM BOMBING WITH NO
|
| 00:25:19 |
Barfi, Barak - Research Fellow
OVERALL STRATEGY. THE BOMB LANDED IN AGRICULTURAL FIELDS, WHICH IS FAR FROM THE URBAN AREA. SO YOU WONDER WHY THEY DO THAT. MANY OF THE BOMBINGS DON'T...
|
| 00:25:59 |
Bergen, Peter L. - Director
IS THE REGIME IS TURNING MORE AND MORE PEOPLE AWAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE RURAL AREAS. ONE OF THE VILLAGES
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| 00:26:04 |
Barfi, Barak - Research Fellow
THAT IS IN WAS A VERY PROSPEROUS VILLAGE. A LOT OF NEW BUILDING WAS UP AND YOU THINK WOW, THEY BENEFITED FROM THE MACHINE POLICY. IT'S NOT A POOR VILLAGE,...
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| 00:27:22 |
Bergen, Peter L. - Director
MIDDLE-CLASS SUNNIS AND THEY WERE JUST NOT SUPPORTIVE OF THE
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| 00:27:26 |
Barfi, Barak - Research Fellow
REVOLUTION. AND YOU STILL HAVE THAT, LIKE I SAID IN THESE VILLAGES. IN ALEPPO, STILL SUPPORT THE REGIME. >> AND WHAT IS YOUR PROGNOSIS FOR THE REGIME?...
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| 00:27:46 |
Bergen, Peter L. - Director
WIN THE WAR. THEY HAVE NOT TAKEN --
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| 00:27:49 |
Barfi, Barak - Research Fellow
THE REBELS HAVEN'T TAKEN ANY IN THE CITY, BUT THE REGIME WISHES FOCUSED ON PUTTING UP RUSH FIRES IN TOO MANY PLACES THEY CAN'T DO IT AND IS GRADUALLY...
|
| 00:28:09 |
Bergen, Peter L. - Director
WHAT COULD THAT ADMINISTRATION DO TO ACTUALLY CHANGE THE FACTS ON THE GROUND? .. >> WHERE DID YOU TRAVEL AROUND? >> FAMILY AND FRIENDS HELPED US OUT,...
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| 00:30:08 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
US IN, AND THEY TOOK US AROUND, WITH FIGHTERS FROM
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| 00:30:12 |
Barfi, Barak - Research Fellow
THEIR UNITS, AND THEY -- THE FAMILIES WERE EACH IN DIFFERENT UNITS, AND THEY TOOK CARE OF US. >> WHAT DO YOU THINK, YOU KNOW, OUR COLLEAGUE HERE AT THE...
|
| 00:30:29 |
Bergen, Peter L. - Director
YOU KNOW, OTHER MILITARIES THAT ARE PARTICULARLY VIABLE, HOWEVER PARTICULARLY SUCCESSFUL, OR IS IT -- IS IT JUST A THICKET OF, YOU KNOW, SMALL GROUPS...
|
| 00:30:50 |
Barfi, Barak - Research Fellow
CAN TALK ABOUT, THERE'S A MILITARY CONFERENCE, WITH FIVE OR SIX PEOPLE ON THERE, AND THEN YOU HAVE THE BRIGADES THERE, LEADERS OF THE BRIGADES, AND...
|
| 00:31:33 |
Bergen, Peter L. - Director
A SOPHISTICATED MILITARY TACTICS THAN THE LIBYANS. >> LIBYA GOT TOGETHER AMONGST THEMSELVES AND TALK ABOUT WHAT TO DO THE NEXT DAY. THE WAY AN OPERATION...
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| 00:31:45 |
Barfi, Barak - Research Fellow
AND CARRIED OUT ON THE SYRIA SIDE SHOWS A HIGH LEVEL OF SOPHISTICATION THAT PEOPLE ARE LEARNING, CIVILIANS ARE LEARNING THE DETAILS OF WAR, AND HOW...
|
| 00:32:22 |
Bergen, Peter L. - Director
REI -- REGIME HAS BASES THAT ARE ISLANDS IN THE SEAS OF
|
| 00:32:27 |
Barfi, Barak - Research Fellow
REBELS. THEY WOULD HAVE TO GIVE UP THOSE AREAS. THEY USE THEM -- THREE OR FOUR AIR BASES, THERE'S AN AIR CORRIDOR TO SHOVEL SUPPLIES THERE AND WHATNOT,...
|
| 00:33:18 |
Barfi, Barak - Research Fellow
BETWEEN BENGHAZI AND TRIPOLI, AND BASICALLY IN LIBYA, THE LAST ARMY THAT -- LAST COP QER ABLE TO MOVE EAST TO WEST AND TAKE THE COUNTRY WERE THE ARABS...
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| 00:34:47 |
Bergen, Peter L. - Director
LEADING TO A REBEL VICTORY. WHAT WE HAVED TOO
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| 00:34:50 |
Barfi, Barak - Research Fellow
IS TRY TO WORK, FIND AND NEGOTIATE IS SETTLEMENT WITH THE REGIME TO HAVE A SOFT LANDING IN THIS POINT IN TIME. >> DO YOU THINK THE REGIME HAD PLENTY...
|
| 00:35:04 |
Bergen, Peter L. - Director
FOR ONE? >> I THINK THAT WHAT THE REGIME MADE MANY BAD DECISIONS ALONG THE WAY. THERE WERE MANY PARTNERSHIPS ALONG THE WAY IT COULD HAVE
|
| 00:35:14 |
Barfi, Barak - Research Fellow
REDUCED TENSIONS AND MAYBE ENDED THE WAR, AND IT HAS NOT DONE THAT. IT HAS NOT SHOWN THE STRATEGIC AUDACITY AND INSIGHTS THAT THE NEW GENERATION JUST...
|
| 00:35:40 |
Bergen, Peter L. - Director
LEADER RULED FOR FIVE YEARS SINCE INDEPENDENCE IN 1946. >> HIS SON
|
| 00:35:46 |
Barfi, Barak - Research Fellow
ADOPTED THE SAME APPROACH ALSO; RIGHT? REPRESSION IF IT'S AT SUFFICIENTLY HIGH LEVELS WORKS. >> THE
|
| 00:35:54 |
Bergen, Peter L. - Director
THING IS HE DIDN'T -- THAT GOES BACK TO THE POWELL DOCTRINE. YOU USE FORCE, COME OUT STRONG
|
| 00:36:01 |
Barfi, Barak - Research Fellow
WITH IT EARLY ON. HE DIDN'T DO THAT. IT WAS A SLOW ESCALATION. >> SHOULD HAVE BEEN HAMMER RULES AS FRIEDMAN SAYS? >> WELL, I DON'T KNOW -- I DON'T ADVOCATE
|
| 00:36:13 |
Bergen, Peter L. - Director
VIOLENCE, BUT MAYBE, YOU KNOW, HE GETS A RAW DEAL, HE WASN'T
|
| 00:36:19 |
Barfi, Barak - Research Fellow
THIS RUTHLESS SADISTIC MAN LIKE SADDAM WAS WHO WANTED VIOLENCE EVERY DAY. HE WANTED STATE. HE ALLOWED POCKETS OF SOME LEVELS, AND HE'S BETWEEN IS...
|
| 00:37:19 |
Bergen, Peter L. - Director
PATRICK FOCUSED TOO MUCH ON THE CONSPIRACY THEORIES OF WHY CERTAIN THINGS HAPPENED IN THE REGION. >> TURNING
|
| 00:37:25 |
Barfi, Barak - Research Fellow
TO EGYPT, YOU INTERVIEWED A LOT OF PEOPLE IN THE MOVEMENT. YOU MENTIONED THE
|
| 00:37:35 |
Bergen, Peter L. - Director
1990S, OBVIOUSLY, WHERE THE, YOU KNOW, BASICALLY THE EGYPTIANS PUT DOWN, AND IT IS ISLAMIST INSURGEON SIGH AND STAPPED TO DEATH, END OF THE MOVEMENT....
|
| 00:38:02 |
Barfi, Barak - Research Fellow
IS THERE
|
| 00:38:04 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
ANY LIKELIHOOD
|
| 00:38:05 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
OF THE HEAD
|
| 00:38:06 |
Bergen, Peter L. - Director
OF AL-QAEDA TO RESUSCITATE AN AL-QAEDA-LIKE GROUP IN EGYPT OR OTHER GROUPS OR EGYPTIANS GONE THROUGH THAT IN THE 1990S SEEN AS A DEAD END? HOW DO YOU...
|
| 00:38:31 |
Barfi, Barak - Research Fellow
OKAY? >> RIGHT. >> WHAT YOU HAVE, AND BOTH IN THE JIHAD AND THE ISLAMIC GROUPS, THEY --
|
| 00:38:39 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
THE LEADERS AND THEN THE MID LEVEL
|
| 00:38:42 |
Barfi, Barak - Research Fellow
GUYS ALL EMBRACE THE POLITICAL PROCESS. FIRST, THEY HAD THE CEASE FIRE IN 1997 RENOUNCING VIOLENCE, AND GRADUALLY OVER THE NEXT DECADE, A LOT OF...
|
| 00:39:20 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
HE WAS NOT IN PRISON WITH THESE PEOPLE AT THE TIME. THERE WAS A TRANSFORMATION IN THE 1980S AND
|
| 00:39:25 |
Barfi, Barak - Research Fellow
1990S. I SPOKE TO ONE. WE WERE
|
| 00:39:28 |
Barfi, Barak - Research Fellow
YOUNG, DIDN'T UNDERSTAND THINGS. WE WANT AND READ BOOKS. HE WAS FRIENDS WITH THE MAN ASSASSINATED IS SADDAM. TALK ABOUT THE MOST SENIOR PEOPLE SAYING...
|
| 00:40:29 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
A CAUSE FOR CONCERN THAT
|
| 00:40:31 |
Barfi, Barak - Research Fellow
SOMEBODY THAT THESE PEOPLE ARE ESTABLISHING CAMPS. THEY ARE GOING OUT, TRYING TOED RADICALIZE THE POPULATION. >> ESTABLISHING CAMPS WHERE? >> SOME IN...
|
| 00:40:49 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
THEY SELF-IDENTIFY? >> I DON'T
|
| 00:40:51 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
THINK THEY
|
| 00:40:52 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
CALL THEMSELVES AL-QAEDA FROM WHAT I UNDERSTAND.
|
| 00:40:54 |
Bergen, Peter L. - Director
THEY WANT TO BE AL-QAEDA. >> ANY SENSE OF SIZE? >>
|
| 00:40:59 |
Barfi, Barak - Research Fellow
I CAN'T GIVE YOU AN ESTIMATE ON THE SIZE. >> HAVE THEY DONE ANYTHING IN EGYPT OF
|
| 00:41:05 |
Bergen, Peter L. - Director
ANY NOTE? >> WELL, YOU KNOW,
|
| 00:41:08 |
Barfi, Barak - Research Fellow
WE SEE THE JIHADISTS
|
| 00:41:11 |
Bergen, Peter L. - Director
IN SIGH -- SINAI CARRIED OUT
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| 00:41:17 |
Barfi, Barak - Research Fellow
ATTACKS. >> THAT WAS TRUE BEFORE THE REGIME FELL. >> THEY THOUGHT THEY STOMPED IT OUT. >> YEAH. >> THEY KILL ALL THE RING LEADERS OF THOSE
|
| 00:41:26 |
Bergen, Peter L. - Director
ATTACKS. >> GREAT. LET'S THROW IT OPEN FOR THE
|
| 00:41:29 |
Barfi, Barak - Research Fellow
AUDIENCE. WAIT FOR
|
| 00:41:31 |
Barfi, Barak - Research Fellow
THE MICROPHONE, IDENTIFY YOURSELF, ASK
|
| 00:41:33 |
Bergen, Peter L. - Director
THE QUESTION RATHER THAN MAKING A STATEMENT. THE GENTLEMAN HERE. >> I'M TOM GETMAN, FORMER NGO EXECUTIVE, AND OCHA BOARD MEMBER IN THE MIDDLE EAST....
|
| 00:41:50 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
WE'RE WONDERING MORE ABOUT WHAT'S HAPPENING IN THE NORTHERN PART OF SYRIA IN REGARD TO TURKEY. YOU MENTIONED IT IS AN OPEN BORDER, COME AND GO LIKE EARLY...
|
| 00:42:28 |
Barfi, Barak - Research Fellow
DON'T HAVE THE INFRASTRUCTURE TO HOST THEM. THE CONDITION OF THE CAMPS, SOME OF THE COVERS ARE BAD. YOU HAVE TO WALK FAR TO GET TO THE BATHROOM, SANITARY...
|
| 00:43:59 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
SO TURKEY, WITH
|
| 00:44:01 |
Barfi, Barak - Research Fellow
TURKEY'S STRONG RESPONSE, IT'S REALLY TRYING TO THEN DRAW, LAY THE TRACKS FOR THE SYRIA, AND THEN HIRE CIVILIANS, AND THEN SAY LOOK WHAT'S GOING ON...
|
| 00:44:29 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
KNOW, IT'S BEEN BURNED,
|
| 00:44:32 |
Barfi, Barak - Research Fellow
DAMAGE TO THE -- A BEAUTIFUL PLACE WHEN I VISITED THERE, AND EVERYBODY THAT LOVES SYRIA, YOU KNOW, LOVES THE MIDDLE EAST, ISLAMIC MONUMENTS AND WHATEVER,...
|
| 00:45:00 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
UNIVERSITY. THANKS FOR THE CONVERSATION. I'M
|
| 00:45:03 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
INTRIGUED BY THE SUGGESTION THAT A SOLUTION COULD BE ALLOWING THE REGIME TO RETREAT TO THE ALL WHITE HEARTLAND ON THE COAST. I'D LIKE TO PRESS YOU...
|
| 00:46:03 |
Barfi, Barak - Research Fellow
DO IS WE ARE GIVENNING AN INSENTIVE, AND THEY'LL FIND EVERYTHING'S LOST AND THEY HAVE TO GO IN OR THREATEN THE USE OF FORCE THAT YOU'RE GOING TO ESCALATE....
|
| 00:47:03 |
Barfi, Barak - Research Fellow
THAT BASHAR IS NOT A RATIONAL ACTOR. BASEN ODD DISCRETIONS OF PEOPLE WHO MET HIM AND TALKED TO HIM. HE SAYS DIFFERENT THINGS TO DIFFERENT PEOPLE. HE'S...
|
| 00:47:28 |
Bergen, Peter L. - Director
REALLY BEING MUCH ADDRESSED IN ANY OF THE COVERAGE. >>
|
| 00:47:31 |
Barfi, Barak - Research Fellow
WELL, PEOPLE DON'T REALLY TALK ABOUT THINGS LIKE THAT. I MEAN,
|
| 00:47:34 |
Bergen, Peter L. - Director
YOU CAN'T SAY THOSE THINGS WITH CERTAINTY, AND THEN YOU
|
| 00:47:39 |
Barfi, Barak - Research Fellow
BRING IN WHAT GIVES YOU THE RIGHT TO SAY THINGS LIKE THAT, BUT HE DOESN'T HAVE THE STABILITY THAT WE SEE WITH OTHERS. >> RIGHT, BUT IF YOU LOOK AT THE...
|
| 00:48:04 |
Bergen, Peter L. - Director
EXIT OF A FORM -- NEGOTIATED EXIT OF A FORMER PRESIDENT. YEMEN WAS A SOMEWHAT DEMOCRATIC STATE BY REGIONAL STANDARDS. I MEAN, THERE WERE POLITICAL PARTIES...
|
| 00:48:35 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
ANIMAL. YES , YEMEN, THERE WAS -- YEMEN THERE WAS
|
| 00:48:40 |
Bergen, Peter L. - Director
ENOUGH SPACE TO COMPROMISE. >> THE REGIME CAN'T NEGOTIATE WITH THE OPPOSITION. EVEN WORSE IN EGYPT. WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IS IN EGYPT, THE RULER IS
|
| 00:48:51 |
Barfi, Barak - Research Fellow
A PHARROH RULING WITH OUT ANYBODY. THE LAST DEFENSE MINISTER WAS MOVED ASIDE IN THE 1980S. HE WANTED TO BE THE VICE PRESIDENT, AND HE WAS NOT, AND...
|
| 00:49:44 |
Bergen, Peter L. - Director
TO BE HARD TO DO THE DEAL. >> IT'S
|
| 00:49:46 |
Barfi, Barak - Research Fellow
A NEGOTIATION BETWEEN THE REGIME AND THE WEST.
|
| 00:49:49 |
Bergen, Peter L. - Director
THE REGIME AND THE, YOU KNOW, THE REBEL STAND BEHIND THE
|
| 00:49:54 |
Barfi, Barak - Research Fellow
WEST SAYING, YEAH, OKAY, WE'LL DO THAT, BUT, YOU KNOW, THE ARAB REVOLT, THE ARAB SPRING, ONLY IN OUTSIDE OF SYRIA, ONLY IN LIBYA DID WE SEE VIOLENCE....
|
| 00:51:23 |
Bergen, Peter L. - Director
WILLIAM FROM ENTERER GNARL, AND THAT SEGUES TO THE DISCUSSION ABOUT THE POLITICAL OPPOSITION.
|
| 00:51:31 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
THE U.S. GOVERNMENT HAS BEEN TRYING TO TALK WITH THE TURKS. MY UNDERSTANDING, AND I HOPE YOU KNOW MORE ABOUT THIS THAN I DO THAT THE DSNC REALLY IS...
|
| 00:52:14 |
Barfi, Barak - Research Fellow
THE OPPOSITION GROUP CREATED IN THE AFTERMATH OF THE REVOLUTION. THESE GUYS HAVE NO SUPPORT ON THE GROUND. PEOPLE DON'T KNOW THEM. THEIR NAMES AND...
|
| 00:53:35 |
Bergen, Peter L. - Director
PETER. DEPENDS WHERE YOU STAND, AND IT ALSO DEPENDS AT WHAT POINT IN TIME YOU LOOK AT
|
| 00:53:40 |
Barfi, Barak - Research Fellow
IT. THESE THE BIRTH PAINS OF IT, IT TAKES A LOT OF TIME TO TRANSITION. YOU NEED TO REALLY BUILD INSTITUTIONS. YOU CAN'T JUST IMPOSE DEMOCRACY, AND WOULD...
|
| 00:55:12 |
Bergen, Peter L. - Director
IN EGYPT. HE WAS SEEN
|
| 00:55:14 |
Barfi, Barak - Research Fellow
AS A STANDARD BEARER OF THE FORMER REGIME BECAUSE HE WAS THE FORMER TRANSPORTATION -- GENERAL OF THE FORMER TRANSPORTATIONIST, AND MUBARAK NAMED HIM...
|
| 00:55:35 |
Bergen, Peter L. - Director
HAVE A STRONG MILITARY, A SUCCESSFUL MODEL WOULD BE TURKEY AND LESS SUCCESSFUL MODEL WOULD BE PAKISTAN RIGHT NOW. IS EGYPT PERHAPS A LESS SUCCESSFUL...
|
| 00:55:55 |
Barfi, Barak - Research Fellow
ISRAEL. THEY NEED A STRONG MILITARY. THE MILITARY ALSO CONTROLS I THINK BETWEEN 10%-15% OF THE ECONOMY BASE. THE MILITARY GETS A GOOD PORTION OF THE...
|
| 00:57:02 |
Bergen, Peter L. - Director
THE CIVILIAN LEADERS REALLY
|
| 00:57:05 |
Barfi, Barak - Research Fellow
ASSERT THEIR POWER SO FORCEFULLY AND EARLY ON. >> IN PAKISTAN IN 2002, THE PRO-TALIBAN PARTIES CONTROLLED TWO OUT OF FOUR OF PAKISTAN'S PROVINCES,...
|
| 00:57:19 |
Bergen, Peter L. - Director
LOSING CONTROL, AND THEY LOST CONTROL BECAUSE THEY HAD NOT DELIVERED. HOW WOULD YOU SEE THE FORTUNES? YOU SORT OF ADDRESSED THAT IN THE OPENING REMARKS,...
|
| 00:57:56 |
Barfi, Barak - Research Fellow
GET MINISTRIES OR GIVE US ANY POWER. WITH THAT SAID, WHAT CAN THEY DELIVER? I MEAN, THEY'RE NOT GOING TO BE ABLE TO REFORM EGYPTIAN SOCIETY. THE THINGS...
|
| 01:00:24 |
Bergen, Peter L. - Director
STIPULATING DEMOCRATIC CONDITIONS. DO WE REALLY WANT
|
| 01:00:29 |
Barfi, Barak - Research Fellow
TO ALIENATE THEIR SESSION STABILITY IN THE REGION, DO WE REALLY WANT TO ALIENATE THE COUNTRY THAT IS THE PILLAR OF THE AMERICAN SUPPORT IN THE REGION?...
|
| 01:01:00 |
Bergen, Peter L. - Director
BASIC POSITION? >> THERE'S GOING TO BE NO MOVEMENT ON THE TREATY. IT WOULD ALLOW THE MILITARY TO MOVE MORE
|
| 01:01:09 |
Barfi, Barak - Research Fellow
FORCES THEN. THAT'S WHAT YOU HEAR ON THE STREET. BUT THE FUNNY THING WITH THAT IS A RETURN TO ISRAELIS ALLOW THEM TO MOVE OUR FORCES THEN, THEY DIDN'T...
|
| 01:01:35 |
Barfi, Barak - Research Fellow
DID THAT. HISTORICALLY SINCE THE EGYPTIANS TOOK OVER, BUT ONLY STATIONED ABOUT 75% OF THE FORCES THEY WERE ALLOWED TO UNDER THE CAMP DAVID ACCORD. >>...
|
| 01:01:58 |
Bergen, Peter L. - Director
AMENDED? >> THEY MAY WANT TO GET MORE FORCES AND THEIR NOT BECAUSE OF THE SITUATION, BUT THEY'RE WORKING ON IT. NOW WHEN WE
|
| 01:02:09 |
Barfi, Barak - Research Fellow
TALK ABOUT IF THERE'S GOING TO BE A PROBLEM BETWEEN ISRAEL ANISHA, MY GREATEST FEAR IS THEY ARE BOTH MOVING FORCES INTO THESE REGIONS. THE EGYPTIANS...
|
| 01:03:05 |
Bergen, Peter L. - Director
POLICY GROUP. WHILE GROWING PROSPECTS TO
|
| 01:03:09 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
USE THE FOR U.S. INFLUENCE IN THE REGION, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SECURITY PROBLEMS IN A RECENT EMBASSY ATTACKS AND CHALLENGES AWAIT GOVERNANCE AND WEAK...
|
| 01:03:34 |
Barfi, Barak - Research Fellow
WE ARE IN THE REGION AND WHAT WE CAN GET DONE AND WHAT THE PEOPLE ON THE GROUND THINK WE CAN GET DONE. WE NEED TO WORK WITH OUR ALLIES. WE NEED TO TALK...
|
| 01:04:06 |
Bergen, Peter L. - Director
THE THING IS WE HAVE A GREAT RELATIONSHIP. AT THE END OF HIS LIFE, GADHAFI,
|
| 01:04:15 |
Barfi, Barak - Research Fellow
WHEN CONDOLEEZZA RICE VISITED A THINK IN 2006 OR 2007, I THINK NIXON'S VISIT, VICE PRESIDENT NIXON'S VISIT IN 1967 OR 68 WAS THE BIG ACHIEVEMENT OF...
|
| 01:05:04 |
Bergen, Peter L. - Director
NOT AN ACCIDENT YOUR BROKERS CRITICAL MILESTONES WHILE HE WAS -- >> THEY PLAYED A VERY VIRTUAL. >> NOT AN ACCIDENT THAT ALSO HEAR HE BECAME A RADICALIZED...
|
| 01:05:23 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
IN BECAME RADICALIZED
|
| 01:05:24 |
Bergen, Peter L. - Director
IN A JORDANIAN PRISON. >> I'M FAMILIAR WITH ALL OF THOSE. >> SERVICES REALLY THE BIG QUESTION FOR ALL THOSE IS, IF YOU ACCEPT THE IDEA, AND I THINK...
|
| 01:05:36 |
Barfi, Barak - Research Fellow
AND GROUPS LIKE
|
| 01:05:38 |
Bergen, Peter L. - Director
IT REALLY CAME AS A RESULT OF THESE AUTHORITARIAN REGIMES. MANY OF THESE REGIMES ARE GOING, WHICH SUGGESTS MORE POLITICAL SPACE FOR ISLAMISTS, WHICH...
|
| 01:06:20 |
Barfi, Barak - Research Fellow
SEPTEMBER 11 ATTACKS. THIS IS WHAT HAPPENS. AND 10, 20 YEARS IN THE NEXT GENERATION, THE SOCIETIES WILL TRANSITION TO MORE STRONG, DEMOCRATIC STATES...
|
| 01:07:54 |
Bergen, Peter L. - Director
RIGHT NOW? [INAUDIBLE] >> HAVE A COME BACK? DO THEY HAVE ANY VALIDITY NOW? HAD TO CHANGE THEIR WAYS? >> IS TOO SOON FOR SOCIETY TO FORGIVE THEM FOR...
|
| 01:08:07 |
Bergen, Peter L. - Director
THEY DID. >> AND I THINK THAT LESS THAN ALSO, AS ONE OF
|
| 01:08:13 |
Barfi, Barak - Research Fellow
THE TURNING POINTS IN AL QAEDA'S FORTRESS WAS THE ATTACK ON AMERICA IN JORDAN IN 2005,
|
| 01:08:18 |
Bergen, Peter L. - Director
WHICH KILLED ALMOST ENTIRELY JORDANIANS. LACK OF WIDESPREAD COVERAGE IN THE ARAB WORLD. SO I THINK IN IRAQ PEOPLE SAW WHAT AL QAEDA LIKE REGIME WOULD...
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| 01:08:48 |
Barfi, Barak - Research Fellow
MEAN, COLLEAGUES TOOK OUT FULL-PAGE ADS IN THE PAPERS ANNOUNCING THE ATTACKS. IT IS A REAL BACKLASH AGAINST THAT. BUT SHE SEE A LOT OF THAT APPEARED...
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| 01:09:16 |
Bergen, Peter L. - Director
OF THE WEST FOR WHAT THEY DID IN OVERTHROWING GADHAFI AS OPPOSED
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| 01:09:21 |
Barfi, Barak - Research Fellow
TO OTHER COUNTRIES, WHERE NO ONE ASKED FOR AMERICAN AID AND GOT MILITARY SUPPORT. BUT THE POINT IS I USED TO LIVE IN THE ADMIN. AND IN YEMEN, PEOPLE...
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| 01:10:02 |
Bergen, Peter L. - Director
OVER HERE. >> I'M BRAIN THAT GOVERN, VETERAN INTELLIGENCE PROFESSIONALS FOR SANITY. I WAS THERE TO BROADEN THE DISCUSSION
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| 01:10:15 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
TO RUSSIA. I USED TO KNOW A LOT ABOUT RUSSIA AND I THINK I REMEMBER THEY ARE VERY INTERESTED IN SYRIA. HOW SERIOUS DO YOU THINK THE RUSSIANS CONSIDER...
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| 01:10:43 |
Barfi, Barak - Research Fellow
NOT ME. >> DID YOU HAVE A QUESTION, SIR? >> I AM MIKE BEARD AND I WONDER WHAT ROLE AREA HAS PLAYED IN THE
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| 01:10:56 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
AREA? >> EXCELLENT. IRAN IS PLAYING A BIG ROLE
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| 01:11:00 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
IN SUPPORTING THE SYRIANS. WE KNOW THAT THEY ARE
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| 01:11:05 |
Barfi, Barak - Research Fellow
TRAINING THEM, OFFERING ALL TYPES OF AID. THEY CAN'T ALLOW SYRIA TO FOLLOW BECAUSE THE CONTRARY SOME WEAPONS TO HEZBOLLAH, WHICH IS IRAN'S REALLY...
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| 01:12:24 |
Bergen, Peter L. - Director
RESPONDING TO THE REGIME AND
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| 01:12:29 |
Barfi, Barak - Research Fellow
TO BASICALLY SUPPORTING A GROUP THEY REGARD
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| 01:12:35 |
Bergen, Peter L. - Director
AS HERETICS. >> IT WAS MORE PRAGMATIC WHEN THEY STARTED THE RELATIONSHIP. THE IRANIAN STATED
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| 01:12:47 |
Barfi, Barak - Research Fellow
IN ALLY ON IRAQ STARTED THE WAR WITH THEM. SO THEY WERE ABLE TO REACH OUT BECAUSE THE WHOLE REGION WAS AGAINST THEM. SAUDI ARABIA, KUWAIT, THEY WERE...
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| 01:15:48 |
Bergen, Peter L. - Director
GENOMIC AND THE HERITAGE FOUNDATION. BURGESS WHEN I AND A NEW POSITIVE OR GIVEN ENOUGH, OR SHOULD WE GIVE MORE? AND WHAT KIND OF AID? >> IT'S A
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| 01:15:56 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
GREAT QUESTION. THE THING IS LIBYA DOESN'T NEED ANY AID DECODES IT HAS ALL THE OIL WELLS. IT NEEDS HELP IN BUILDING
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| 01:16:03 |
Barfi, Barak - Research Fellow
INSTITUTIONS. IT MEANS EXPERTS TO BRING IN JUDGES BEING TO BUILD UP TECHNICAL CAPACITY. LIBYA'S OIL MONEY CAN SUPPORT ALL THAT. ANYTHING WOULD BE AN...
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| 01:16:36 |
Bergen, Peter L. - Director
WITH THE REGIME AND NOT OF COURSE WAS A PEACE DEAL WITH GADHAFI. TO WHAT EXTENT WAS THAT HELD ON THE ISLAM THAT FIGHTING GROUP. WHAT IS HAPPENING WITH...
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| 01:17:01 |
Barfi, Barak - Research Fellow
POLITICAL PARTY. YOU HAVE ALI'S BROTHER, A MEMBER OF ANOTHER PARTY. I THINK THE IDEOLOGUE IS ALSO PLAYED FOR POLITICAL GAINS WHEN THE REVOLUTION TALKED...
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| 01:18:05 |
Bergen, Peter L. - Director
QUESTIONS? >> IF I COULD GET A SECOND QUESTION. YOU LOOK AT VARIOUS TRANSITIONS THAT HAVE GONE ON IN LIBYA AND SYRIA,
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| 01:18:21 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
THE LEADERSHIP DOESN'T HAVE ANY ACCENT. YOU KNOW, THEY'RE GOING TO GET SHOT AND RUN OUT OF TOWN, WHERE IN TUNISIA AND YEMEN, CERTAINLY ALSO SOMEWHAT...
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| 01:19:04 |
Barfi, Barak - Research Fellow
TO DO TO THEM. THESE PEOPLE REALLY HAVE THEIR BACK AGAINST THE WALL AND NEED TO BE SMARTER. IT'S JUST A DOOMSDAY SCENARIO FOR THEM. THE OTHER MINORITIES,...
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| 01:20:16 |
Bergen, Peter L. - Director
YOU CAME AND SPOKE ABOUT IT. >> THE ORIGINAL PRESENTED THE RISK WAS PETER IN AFGHANISTAN A LONG TIME AGO. [APPLAUSE] [INAUDIBLE
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| 01:20:26 |
Barfi, Barak - Research Fellow
CONVERSATIONS] >>
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NOTE: The transcript for this program was compiled from uncorrected Closed Captioning.