| 00:00:07 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
MINUTES. >> GOOD EVENING, WELCOME AND THANK YOU FOR JOINING US HERE. I'M RICHARD FONTAINE, THE PRESIDENT OF THE CENTER FOR NEW AMERICAN SECURITY. IT'S...
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| 00:00:19 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
TO WELCOME YOU ALL HERE TO CELEBRATE THE PUBLICATION OF ROBERT KAPLAN'S NEW BOOK, "THE REVENGE OF GEEING AGRAPH, WHAT THE MAP TELLS US ABOUT COMING CONFLICTS...
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| 00:03:06 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
THIS BOOK. IT'S EMBARRASSING HOW MARKED UP IT IS, HOW MANY YELLOW POSTIES I PUT IN IT. I'M NOT DOING THAT TO FLATTER THE TEACHER BUT BECAUSE I REALLY...
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| 00:04:35 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
WITH -- AND THIS IS EPITOMIZED BY TOM FREEDMAN'S WORK WHO I RESPECT GREATLY. WHAT WE CAN DO. IT'S ALL THE THINGS WE CAN ACCOMPLISH IF ONLY WE HAD THE...
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| 00:06:45 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
THIS AMAZINGLY SUITABLE GEOGRAPHICAL PLACE WITH ALL THESE GREAT NATURAL HARBORS AND RIVERS THAT RUN THE RIGHT WAY, BUT THAT WAS TRUE FOR THOUSANDS...
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| 00:07:38 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
VOYAGES. SO THE DEVELOPMENT OF TECHNOLOGY, WHILE IT SHORTENED DISTANCE, IT DID NOT NEGATE GEEING AGRAPH. IT MERELY MEAT IT MORE IMPORTANT BECAUSE IS...
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| 00:09:08 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
IS YOUR DESCRIPTION -- YOU'RE QUOTING A GERMAN HISTORIAN WHO CALLED GERMANY A BIG PRISON, MEANING IT WAS CAUGHT BETWEEN THE NORTH SEA, BALTIC, AND THE...
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| 00:09:59 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
AND THE NORTH AND SEAS AND SOUTH AND THE CAR PAGANS. BUT EAST IT'S FLAT PLAINS SO GERMANYS HAD WARS WITH FRANCE OR THAT AREA, AND WITH POLAND, AND WITH...
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| 00:11:50 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
THE WARSAW PACT DID NOT END RUSSIA'S INSECURITY FACING WEST. IT FACED INVASIONS BY SWEEDS, LITHUANIANS, POLS, FRENCH, THOUGHT HISTORY. SO WE'RE BACK...
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| 00:12:36 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
THE WORLD'S LODGITUDED BUT --
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| 00:12:42 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
LONGITUDES, BUT IT'S NEWSCAST. IT'S INDEFENSIBLE. THE RIVERS RUN NORTH SOUTH INSTEAD OF EAST WEST, AND IT HAS LESS PEOPLE THAN BANGLADESH. 141 MILLION...
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| 00:13:23 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
TOO OPTIMISTIC. IT MADE US TOO CONVINCED THAT HUMAN AGENCY, OUR SYSTEM OF DEMOCRACY, OUR SYSTEM OF FREE MARKETS, WOULD HAVE A TRANSFORMING POWER. TALK...
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| 00:13:52 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
IT SUDDENLY WOULD HAVE A TRANSFORMATIVE EFFECT IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND SUBS -- SUBSAHARAAN -- IT WOULD BE A LONG AND BLOOD AND -- BLOODY STORY IN THE...
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| 00:16:14 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
ABOUT YOUR OWN VIEWS. THIS IS A PLACE YOU KNEW, THAT YOU TRAVELED IN, IN THE 1980s AND THE TIME OF SADDAM HUSSEIN. YOU WERE A SUPPORTER OF THE WAR....
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| 00:16:55 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
IRAQ SIDE. IRAQ WAS LIKE A VAST PRISON YARD LIT UP BY HIGH WHATTAGE LAMPS UNDER SADDAM HUSSEIN. IT WAS SO SUFFOCATING THAT I COULD COMPARE IT TO NO...
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| 00:19:09 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
KILLED. A TRILLION DOLLARS IN COSTS. AND YOU SAID, EVEN IF IRAQ -- EVEN IF EVERYTHING TURNED OUT GREAT AND IRAQ SOMEHOW BECAME AN AMERICAN ALLY AND ...
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| 00:19:47 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
FAILURE BUT ONE THAT WAS IMMORAL. >> EVEN DEMOCRACIES THAT HAVE THE BEST OF INTENTIONS CAN TAKE ACTIONS THAT HAVE AMORAL OR
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| 00:19:58 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
IMMORAL RESULTS, DEPENDING UPON HOW THEY CARRY IT OUT AND HOW WELL THEY THINK THINGS THREW. NOT JUST ONE STEP IN ADVANCE BUT FIVE CHECK -- CHESS MOVES...
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| 00:22:00 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
THE MUNICH ANALOGY THAT COMPROMISE IS FATAL, LOOK AT MUNICH. LOOK HOW MUNICH LED THE SECOND WORLD WAR, THE RISE OF HIT HITLER, THE HOLOCAUST, AND THE...
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| 00:23:00 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
HOW I SEGWAY INTO THE DISCUSSION OF GEOGRAPHY WHICH DOMINATES THE REST OF THE BOOK. AS FAR AS MUNICH AND VIETNAM, I THINK YOU HAVE TO TAKE THEM BOTH...
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| 00:24:39 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
WE'RE IN THE MIDDLE OF A WEEK IN WHICH WE'RE SEEING JUST HOW UNSTABLE THIS GREAT BIG PART OF THE WORLD, NEAR EAST AND MIDDLE EAST, CAN BE. WE HAD TODAY...
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| 00:25:22 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
ONLY INCREASED ITS PRECIOUSNESS NOW. YOU HAVE PEOPLE IN INDONESIA WHO CARE VITALLY ABOUT WHAT THE ISRAELIS DID INTERRUPTING THE FLOTILLA BOUND FOR...
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| 00:27:32 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
THEME IN YOUR BOOK. YOU TALKED IN ONE CHAPTER ABOUT THE IRANIAN PIVOT. THE PRIME MINISTER OF ISRAEL HAS -- SEES IRAN VERY MUCH IN TERMS OF THE NEW NICK...
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| 00:28:29 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
HAVE BEEN GOVERNMENTS, PERSIAN-SPEAKING GOVERNMENTS ON THE IRANIAN PLATEAU GOING BACK TO ANTIQUITY. IRAN IS SYNONYMOUS WITH THE IRANIAN PLATEAU WHICH...
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| 00:31:08 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
GOOD ANSWER. IT MAY WELL BE THAT THE COMPLICATION IS THE WAY -- THE EVENTUAL NORMALIZATION THAT THE NORMAL SITE SEEMS ABLE TO ACHIEVE NOW. BECAUSE MY...
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| 00:32:19 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
ROME WAS OVERCOME BY WHAT THEY CALL BY IBERIAN TRIBES. BUT IT WAS CERTAINLY NOT INEVITABLE. ROME BECAME TOO BRITTLE. IT MAKES SENSE THAT WE NEED TO GRADUALLY...
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| 00:33:56 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
IT OVER. HOW WOULD YOU RESPOND IF MITT ROMNEY STOOD UP AND SAID, MR. ROBERT KAPLAN, YOU ARE BEING DEFEATIST. YOU ARE WALKING AWAY FROM AMERICA'S HISTORICAL...
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| 00:34:30 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
DECADE. THEY CANNOT DO THAT BEARING THE SAME EXACT LEVEL OF BURDEN THAT WE HAVE BEEN VERY NOW. WE CANNOT CONFRONT RUSSIA AND CHINA AND BE THE HEGEMON...
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| 00:35:37 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
KISSINGER. THIS IS OBVIOUSLY A SET OF ARGUMENTS THAT PEOPLE NEED TO CONSIDER VERY SERIOUSLY. LET'S GO TO THE ARGUMENTS FOR QUESTIONS. KEEP YOUR QUESTIONS...
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| 00:36:05 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
PRESENT IT, IT HAS BEEN ESSENTIALLY USED, THE ARGUMENT HAS BEEN USED TO JUSTIFY ANY AND ALL EXPANSIONS FROM MOSCOW TO THE AREAS IN THE SOVIET AND ETC....
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| 00:36:43 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
THE WARSAW PACT. HE IS NOT GOING TO INVADE THE BALTIC FAITH. THE LIMITED INVASION OF GEORGIA IS ABOUT ALL HE COULD MUSTER. HE LACKS THE MILITARY BANDWIDTH...
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| 00:38:34 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
IT. >> FROM OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY, PERSONAL, FIRST OF ALL, AS A PROFESSIONAL GEOGRAPHER, I WANT TO THANK YOU FOR OVER THE PAST DECADE FOR
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| 00:38:49 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
PUTTING GEOGRAPHY AND THE THOUGHT. RECENTLY THERE HAVE BEEN SOME TERRITORIAL DISPUTES AMONG CHINA AND JAPAN AND SOUTH KOREA. SO WHAT IS YOUR THEORY OF...
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| 00:39:29 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
INDONESIA, IS THAT IN THE 50s AND 60s AND 70s, ALL OF THESE COUNTRIES WERE INTERNALLY FOCUSED. THEY WERE DEVELOPING THEIR OWN ECONOMIES, THEIR OWN...
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| 00:41:30 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
OF. >> THANK YOU, VERY MUCH. BASED IN BEIRUT, LEBANON. THAT IS WHERE I'M FROM. COULD YOU
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| 00:41:48 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
GIVE US INFORMATION AS TO WHY THERE WAS A DOUBLE DETAIL WITH REGARDS TO OUR SITUATION AND THAT VETO WAS THREE TIMES OVER. AND DO YOU THINK THERE IS...
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| 00:42:22 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
SUFFERED A SETBACK THE OVERTHROW OF QADHAFI AND THE DEMISE OF SADDAM HUSSEIN WHO IS, DESPITE ALL THE INK SPILLED ABOUT HOW WE SUPPORTED HIM IN THE IRAN...
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| 00:44:17 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
YES, PLEASE. >> THANK YOU, SIR, FOR BEING HERE. I'M GOING TO TAKE A BRIEF LOOK AT
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| 00:44:33 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
DEFENSE. MY QUESTION IS THE STRATEGIC BALANCE IN TO ASIA. IN YOUR VIEW, THIS IS AN ATTEMPT TO CONTAIN CHINA AND GIVEN THE GEOGRAPHIC PROBLEMS THAT CHINA...
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| 00:45:06 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
STUDENTS HERE. YOU CANNOT USE THE WORD CONTAINMENT BECAUSE IT HAS A COLD WAR VINTAGE. IT DOESN'T CAPTURE THE COMPLEXITY OF RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE UNITED...
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| 00:47:17 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
AND MEXICO. AND HOW DO YOU VIEW THE EFFECTIVE THINGS, SUCH AS TRANSNATIONAL CRIMINAL ORGANIZATIONS AND THE CONFLUENCE OF SUCH THINGS AS RADICAL EXTREMISTS,...
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| 00:47:50 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
OLD MIDDLE IS CRUCIAL TO U.S. YESTERDAY, BUT MEXICO IS ON THE SAME LEVEL. IT IS ON THE SAME LEVEL OF IMPORTANCE BECAUSE LATIN HISTORY IS MOVING NORTH....
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| 00:49:51 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
GEOGRAPHY TELLS US THAT IT IS THAT SOUTHERN BORDER WITH MEXICO THAT'S GOING TO BE CRUCIAL. BUT IN LIGHT OF WHAT YOU SAID, THIS IS AN INEVITABLE ZONE OF...
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| 00:50:17 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
IN SYRIA, WHAT IF THE PERSIAN GULF ABOUT, WHAT IF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA ROUTES. WE HAVE TROUBLE HANDLING THAT. THAT IS WHY, IF WE COULD HAVE MORE OF...
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| 00:52:05 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
EASY? >> WHAT I SEE IN AFRICA IN GENERAL IS THAT AFTER ALL BAD NEWS IN THE 1990s,
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| 00:52:13 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
SINCE ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF THE LAST DECADE, AFRICAN ECONOMIC GROWTH HAS BEEN ABOUT SIX OR 7%, WHICH IS THE MOST IMPRESSIVE IN THE WORLD. NOW, YOU HAVE...
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| 00:54:11 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
ON THE SIDE OF. >> YES,
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| 00:54:18 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
MA'AM. >> IN THE MIDCENTURY, NICHOLAS PECHMAN SAID THAT GEOGRAPHY WAS WERE MOST IMPORTANT FACTORS IN FOREIGN AFFAIRS BECAUSE IT WAS THE MOST PERMANENT....
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| 00:54:36 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
SAW THE ARCTIC ICE CAP DROP DOWN ANOTHER 750 SQUARE KILOMETERS AND IT APPEARS TO BE OPENING MORE THIS SESSION. WHAT DO YOU THINK THIS TREND WILL MEAN,...
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| 00:55:10 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
PREDICTED THAT CHINA, WHO WAS OUR ALLY AT THE TIME, WOULD ULTIMATELY BECOME OUR ADVERSARY FOR GEOGRAPHICAL REASONS. AND HE ALSO SAID THAT WHEN EUROPE...
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| 00:56:55 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
ROW. >> ROBBER, ONE I WOULD LIKE TO OFFER IS A QUICK COMMENT ON WHAT YOU NOTED BEFORE ABOUT THE U.S. AND IRANIAN RELATIONSHIP. BUT IT NEEDS TO GO THROUGH
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| 00:57:07 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
SOME LEVEL OVER THE NEXT DECADE. I PRESUME YOU ARE NOT CASTING AGENCY ONLY ON THE UNITED STATES. BUT ALSO ON IRAN. TO SOME LEVEL OF SERIOUS BEHAVIOR...
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| 00:57:54 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
WHEN I WAS INDEBTED FOR A FEW YEARS WITH ARMY SPECIAL FORCES, THEY ALWAYS HAD TROUBLE MAKING ARRANGEMENTS TO TRAINING ARRANGEMENTS AND BRAZIL. THE BRAZILIANS...
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| 01:01:21 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
AND GEOGRAPHICAL SITUATION SO THEIR INTERESTS ARE DIFFERENT BUT THEY OFTEN CLASH. BUT WE HAVE TO RECOGNIZE THAT WE DON'T HAVE AS HARDENED IDEOLOGICAL...
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| 01:04:49 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
THE GEOGRAPHY. THERE WAS A QUESTION HERE. >> I AM A PROFESSOR OF GEOGRAPHY. YOU ARE PREACHING, I THINK, TO THE CHOIR. AND I WONDER WHAT CAN
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| 01:05:13 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
BE DONE. >> THAT IS A GOOD THING. I AGREE. BUT WHAT CAN BE DONE TO REAWAKEN AMERICANS THAT YOU HAVE SO
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| 01:05:29 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
SKILLFULLY DISPLAY? >> I CONCLUDE ON MY POINT. >> LET ME JUST SAY THAT GEOGRAPHY IS SOMETHING THAT MAY NOT BE FASHIONABLE. IT HAS A MUST-SEE THING
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| 01:05:46 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
LIKE A ONE-ROOM SCHOOLHOUSE, KIND OF. BUT I THINK THAT EVERYONE IS INTRINSICALLY INTERESTED IN GEOGRAPHY. WHAT BOOKS TO SELL THE MOST OFTEN OUR MILITARY...
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| 01:06:45 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
ARE HERE? >> I THINK WE ALREADY ARE GETTING THERE. FOR
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| 01:06:54 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
INSTANCE, I HAVE CLOSE PERSIAN FRIENDS IN OREGON WHO TOLD ME WHAT THE ALTAR -- ALTERNATE REVENGE WOULD BE, ALWAYS IRANIANS MOVED TO THE UNITED STATES...
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| 01:08:02 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
WE HAVE TIME FOR ONE LAST QUESTION. >>
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| 01:08:08 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
I AND WITH THE GLOBAL REVIEW OF FARES. IF WE COULD YOU COMMENT ABOUT WHAT THE MAP TELLS US ABOUT THE PROSPECTS FOR ERRORS PIECE
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| 01:08:18 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
IN RELATION TO WATER SCARCITY ISSUES? >> TURKEY HAS ALL THE WATER. THAT IS WHY TURKEY IS GOING TO BE A GREAT MIDDLE LEVEL POWER IN THE 20TH
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| 01:08:30 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
CENTURY. I DISCUSSED ISRAEL FOR ABOUT FOUR PAGES IN THIS BOOK. I MEAN, THAT PART OF ISRAEL. AND THIS IS WHERE I COME DOWN, UNFORTUNATELY, GEOGRAPHICALLY....
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NOTE: The transcript for this program was compiled from uncorrected Closed Captioning.