| 00:00:03 |
HOST, -
PROVIDE CONTEXT. TRADE IS OUR TOPIC FOR THIS 45 MINUTES. OUR GUEST IS STEVE LANDEFELD. ALSO JOINING US IS RYAN AVENT FROM "THE ECONOMIST." THERE WERE...
|
| 00:00:44 |
GUEST, -
SURGE IN IMPORTS, WE HAVE BEEN ON A GOOD RIDE WITH RESPECT TO EXPORTS OVER THE LAST YEAR. WE HAVE HAD STRONG GROWTH IN EXPORTS. HOST: CLASSICALLY, AMERICA
|
| 00:01:00 |
HOST, -
HAS TAKEN IN MORE THAN IT HAS SENT OUT WHEN IT COMES TO IMPORTS AND EXPORTS. GUEST: THE CRUX
|
| 00:01:07 |
GUEST, -
OF THAT IS HISTORICALLY, THE DECADE BEFORE THE LAST RECESSION, WE WERE KNOCKING ABOUT 0.5% OF GROWTH. IN 2011, WE HAVE A CIRCUMSTANCE WHERE IT IT WAS...
|
| 00:01:27 |
HOST, -
TO THE DEFICIT, IT SAYS INCREASED TO $52.60 BILLION IN JANUARY. GUEST:
|
| 00:01:37 |
GUEST, -
WHEN LOOKING AT THINGS LIKE THE TRADE DEFICIT AND OTHER NUMBERS, YOU COMPARE TO SOMETHING. THE COMPARISON TO GDP, IS ABOUT 4%. HOST: RYAN
|
| 00:01:53 |
HOST, -
AVENT, AND HOW DO THESE NUMBERS TRANSLATE ON HOW WE'RE DOING WITH WHAT WE TAKEN AND SENT OUT TO OTHER COUNTRIES? GUEST: DURING THE
|
| 00:02:04 |
GUEST, -
PAST DECADE OR SO, WE WERE RUNNING A SIGNIFICANT BALANCE OF TRADE DEFICIT. DURING THE RECESSION, TRADE COLLAPSED EVERYWHERE. PART OF WHAT WE'RE SEEING...
|
| 00:02:45 |
HOST, -
SAY YOU SEE A TREND OF BALANCING, WHAT ELSE COULD WE ATTRIBUTE IT TO? GUEST: A STRONG
|
| 00:02:54 |
GUEST, -
DOLLAR IS NICE. IT ALLOWS US TO BUY LOTS OF GOODS FROM OTHER PLACES. IT IS CHEAPER WHEN WE GO ABROAD. A WEAKER DOLLAR IS USEFUL IN THAT IT HELPS OUR...
|
| 00:03:27 |
HOST, -
WANT TO ASK A QUESTION OF THESE GENTLEMEN, WE HAVE TWO NUMBERS TO CALL. WE HAVE PHONE NUMBERS FOR TIME ZONES AND FOR OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES. IT CAN...
|
| 00:04:14 |
GUEST, -
DECLINE OF THE VALUE OF THE DOLLAR. WE SEE THE RAISED EXPORTS WIND. IF WE WERE TO UPDATE THE CHART, WE WOULD SEE THE GROWTH WE HAVE HAD IN MANUFACTURING...
|
| 00:04:37 |
HOST, -
THAT MEAN THOSE WORKING ARE WORKING MORE TO MAKE THE GOODS? GUEST: IT MAY BE
|
| 00:04:43 |
GUEST, -
MORE HOURS, BUT IT MAY BE THE SUBSTITUTION OF CAPITAL FOR THEIR LABOR TERM. THERE MAY BE OUT SOURCING OF COMPONENTS. THERE ARE A LOT OF REASONS FOR ...
|
| 00:05:06 |
HOST, -
TO THAT AS FAR AS THE PEOPLE PUTTING THESE THINGS TOGETHER? GUEST: THERE HAS BEEN A
|
| 00:05:13 |
GUEST, -
TREND IN THE LAST HALF CENTURY PRODUCTIVITY IN MANUFACTURING TO IMPROVE. A LOT OF IT IS SUBSTITUTING MACHINES AND BETTER TECHNOLOGY FOR LABOR. THAT...
|
| 00:05:34 |
HOST, -
IS FROM PLEASANTON, CALIFORNIA, NICK, GO AHEAD. CALLER: I WANT TO QUESTION
|
| 00:05:43 |
CALLER, -
THESE PEOPLE ON HOW THE IMPORTS AND EXPORTS ARE COUNTED. WHEN WE CREATE PARTS AND SHIP THEM TO OTHER COUNTRIES TO CREATE SOMETHING AND BRING IT BACK...
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| 00:06:15 |
HOST, -
YOU GIVEN THE LATEST FIGURES IS THAT OF THE APPLE IPHONE. HOW DOES THAT RELATE TO THE CALLER'S QUESTION? GUEST: THIS IS A CASE
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| 00:06:28 |
GUEST, -
STUDY THAT HAS BECOME RATHER FAMOUS IN ILLUSTRATING GLOBAL TRADE. THE VALUE OF THE IPHONE RETAIL IS $499. THE MANUFACTURING COST IN CHINA IS $6.50. THE...
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| 00:07:23 |
HOST, -
EXAMPLES AS FAR AS THE PEACE WORK IN MANUFACTURING? GUEST: I THINK
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| 00:07:28 |
GUEST, -
IT IS FAIRLY COMMON. ONE THING AMERICA IS GOOD AT IS PUTTING IN THE INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY AND GOES IN TO THE DEVICES. SILICON VALLEY IS INCREDIBLY PRODUCTIVE...
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| 00:08:05 |
HOST, -
OF THE ISSUE BECOME THE LABOR ISSUE REGION DOES PART OF THE ISSUE BECOME THE LABOR ISSUE? -- DOES PART OF THE ISSUE BECOME THE LABOR ISSUE? GUEST: WE...
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| 00:08:19 |
GUEST, -
WANT TO SEE A HORRIBLE CONDITIONS DRIVING WORKERS TO SUICIDE. ONE THING WE NEED TO THINK ABOUT IS THE CONDITIONS FOR THESE WORKERS IN FACTORIES IS...
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| 00:08:41 |
HOST, -
TEXAS, GOOD MORNING. CALLER: I WAS WONDERING
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| 00:08:46 |
CALLER, -
HOW MUCH OIL-BASED PRODUCTS ARE HELPING TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE DECLINE IN OUR IMPORT-EXPORT DEFICIT. THE KEYSTONE PIPELINE EVERYONE IS TALKING ABOUT IS...
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| 00:09:44 |
GUEST, -
SO, ABOUT $1 TRILLION HAS BEEN FROM OPEC. IN THE CASE OF CANADA, ABOUT 25% OF OUR IMPORTS OF WILL COME FROM CANADA AND SAUDI ARABIA, PERHAPS 12%. WHEN...
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| 00:10:22 |
GUEST, -
VARIATION HAS TO DO WITH CHANGES IN THE PRICE. WHEN OIL BECOMES MORE EXPENSIVE, THE BILL GOES UP. EVEN IF WE'RE NOT IMPORTING MORE BARRELS, THE VALUE...
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| 00:10:56 |
HOST, -
AT ALL? -- CALLER: DO YOU FOLLOW INFLATION AT ALL? WHAT THE GOVERNMENT PUTS OUT AS A FACTUAL NUMBER DOES NOT AGREE WITH WHAT I HAVE TO TAKE OUT MY WALLET...
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| 00:11:54 |
HOST, -
IMPACT. GUEST: AS PRICES RISE HERE,
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| 00:11:59 |
GUEST, -
THAT WILL ENCOURAGE CONSUMERS TO BUY LESS. THAT WILL HAVE A SIMILAR EFFECT ON WHAT WE'RE PRODUCING. A LOT OF PEOPLE FEEL INFLATION NUMBERS DO NOT REFLECT...
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| 00:12:29 |
HOST, -
LOOKING AT THE TRADE PICTURE, THERE IS THE CHART THAT LOOKS AT GOODS AND SERVICES COMBINED TAKING A DIP. GOODS WERE TAKING IT. IN SERVICES, THERE WAS...
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| 00:12:46 |
GUEST, -
SURPLUS OVER TIME. THERE HAS BEEN STRONG GROWTH IN SERVICES. WE WENT FROM ONE UNDER 46 01 BILLION TO ONE UNDER $87 BILLION IN OUR SURPLUS IN SERVICES....
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| 00:13:13 |
HOST, -
FOR THE TYPES OF BUSINESSES DOING THESE THINGS? GUEST: 1 THAT SURPRISES
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| 00:13:20 |
GUEST, -
SOME PEOPLE IS TRAVEL. THAT IS ONE OF OUR BIGGEST CATEGORIES WHERE WE DO WELL. ANOTHER IS BUSINESS AND PROFESSIONAL AND TECHNICAL SERVICES. WE HAVE BEEN...
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| 00:14:19 |
HOST, -
HOST: HAVE SERVICES ALWAYS BEEN PART OF THE TRADE PICTURE? GUEST: ITS IMPORTANCE
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| 00:14:26 |
GUEST, -
IN TRADE IS A RECENT THING. I THINK EXPORTS OF SERVICES, ABOUT HALF OF THE LEVEL OF GOODS WE EXPORT, THE SERVICES AND GOODS WE EXPORT ARE RELATIVELY...
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| 00:14:52 |
HOST, -
A CALL CENTER. IS THE ACTUAL FIRMS SETTING UP ORGANIZATIONS IN OTHER COUNTRIES TO PERFORM SERVICES LIKE TAX PREPARATION? GUEST: UNDERSTANDING
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| 00:15:02 |
GUEST, -
IS THAT WOULD NOT COUNT AS AN EXPORT OF A SERVICE. THAT WOULD BE TAXES DONE HERE AND SOLD ABROAD. THAT COULD BE TO RECALL OR WEB CENTERS. YOU MAY BE...
|
| 00:15:15 |
GUEST, -
ARE CORRECT. IT IS CROSS-BORDER TRAIL. IT IS SALES FROM THE U.S. TO PEOPLE OVERSEAS. THE COMPANIES DO A SIZABLE VOLUME OF BUSINESS ABROAD THROUGH THEIR...
|
| 00:16:03 |
HOST, -
GENE, GOOD MORNING. CALLER: MY QUESTION
|
| 00:16:07 |
CALLER, -
HAS TO DO WITH YOUR GRAPH ON INCREASING EXPORTS. I WANT TO KNOW IF THAT INCLUDES MILITARY EQUIPMENT AND SERVICES OR NOT. THAT IS MY QUESTION. MY COMMENTS...
|
| 00:16:50 |
HOST, -
MILITARY EQUIPMENT IS PART OF EXPORTS? GUEST: IT IS INCLUDED
|
| 00:16:54 |
GUEST, -
BUT IS NOT A DRIVER IN MOST PERIODS. WITH THE DEMOBILIZATION, IT IS DOWN. HOST: WE HAVE
|
| 00:17:04 |
HOST, -
UPTICKS WHEN IT COMES TO TRADE WITH BRAZIL AND THE NETHERLANDS. WHY THOSE COUNTRIES?
|
| 00:17:14 |
GUEST, -
GUEST: PART OF THE BENEFIT IS THE VALUE OF THE DOLLAR THAT HAS BEEN DECLINING FOR SOME TIME. THAT RAISES THE COMPETITIVENESS OF U.S. GOODS IN THOSE COUNTRIES....
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| 00:17:56 |
HOST, -
A PICTURE OF THE LEFT COLUMN -- PAIN A PICTURE OF THE LEFT COLUMN AND WHY IT IS OUTCLASSING THE OTHERS. GUEST: GERMANS TEND
|
| 00:18:09 |
GUEST, -
TO EXPORT HIGH-VALUE CAPITAL GOODS. THEY EXPORT A LOT TO CHINA. A LOT OF IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FACT THAT THEY ARE A LARGE ECONOMY. THERE THE SECOND-LARGEST...
|
| 00:18:47 |
HOST, -
RIPPLE EFFECT OF THAT IF IT CHANGES? GUEST: IF CHINA
|
| 00:18:52 |
GUEST, -
CAN MAKE A SMOOTH TRANSITION, IT SHOULD BE GOOD FOR THE REST OF THE WORLD. THEY WILL BE ABLE TO SELL MORE GOODS TO THE GROWING CHINESE DOMESTIC MARKET....
|
| 00:19:19 |
GUEST, -
THE ACCOUNTS OF WHAT WE BUY AND SELL AND WHAT WE GIVE AWAY THROUGH FOREIGN AID. THERE IS THE FINANCING ASPECT TO THOSE. THE U.S. HAS BEEN RUNNING A DEFICIT...
|
| 00:20:17 |
HOST, -
HOST: DIANA. CALLER: I WOULD
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| 00:20:21 |
CALLER, -
LIKE TO QUESTION THOSE STATISTICS. IF THE EXPORTS ARE GOING UP AND PRODUCTIVITY IS GOING UP BUT EMPLOYMENT IS REMAINING FLAT OR BELOW, I PROPOSE IT IS...
|
| 00:21:28 |
GUEST, -
SEEN FIRMS BECOME BETTER AT GENERATING MORE OUTPUT FROM EACH WORKER. DURING THE RECESSION, IT SEEMED LIKE COMPANIES TOOK THE OPPORTUNITY TO CUT THE...
|
| 00:22:10 |
HOST, -
HOST: GO AHEAD. CALLER: I WAS
|
| 00:22:14 |
CALLER, -
CALLING ABOUT A KEYSTONE PIPELINE. I SEE THE PIPELINE IS TO BRING OIL THROUGH AMERICA, NOT TO AMERICA, ALL WE DOWN TO THE GULF TO BE SHIPPED TO EUROPE...
|
| 00:22:53 |
HOST, -
ADDRESS THE PIPELINE? GUEST: OIL
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| 00:22:57 |
GUEST, -
IS A GLOBAL MARKET. THE PRICE IS SET GLOBALLY. IT WILL AFFECT US NO MATTER WHERE THE OIL IS SHIPPED. THE WAY TO MAKE A PERMANENT REDUCTION IN OUR DEPENDENCE...
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| 00:23:13 |
HOST, -
THE TOPIC OF TRADING PARTNERS THE UNITED STATES HAS WITH THE WORLD, FROM 2000 TO 2010, ANALYSIS SHOWED IN 2000 WAS 5% WITH CHINA. IN 2010, IT WAS 12%....
|
| 00:23:41 |
GUEST, -
IT HAS BEEN THE GROWTH IN CHINA. THAT IS WHAT HAS BEEN CHANGING THE COMPOSITION OF THE GRAPHS. I WOULD NOTE ONE THING THAT HAS BEEN SOMETHING OF A CONSTANT...
|
| 00:24:39 |
HOST, -
IS A GOOD POINT. OTHER PEOPLE WOULD THINK CHINA IS THE LARGEST PART OF WE HAVE WHEN IT COMES TO TRADE. I DO NOT KNOW IF THE OTHER COUNTRIES TO RECOGNIZE...
|
| 00:24:48 |
GUEST, -
GUEST: THEY DO NOT. WE CAN OVERSTATE THE IMPORTANCE OF TRADE TO THE ECONOMY AS A WHOLE. IT ALLOWS US TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF OPPORTUNITIES TO BUY FOREIGN...
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| 00:25:14 |
HOST, -
HOST: THE PRESIDENT SAID HE WANTS TO INCREASE TRADE WITH OTHER COUNTRIES. WHERE IS SEAT ON THAT? GUEST: --
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| 00:25:21 |
GUEST, -
WHERE IS HE ON THAT? GUEST: I BELIEVE HE
|
| 00:25:25 |
GUEST, -
SAID HE WANTED TO DOUBLE EXPORTS IN FIVE YEARS. I THINK HE IS CHANNELING A DESIRE TO SEE A BROADER REBOUND IN THE ECONOMY, TO HAVE US GO BACK TO EXPORTING...
|
| 00:25:57 |
HOST, -
MORNING TO GERARD. CALLER:
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| 00:26:03 |
CALLER, -
THE DEMOCRATS KEEP SAYING PRODUCTION IS UP. THE ONLY PRODUCTION THAT IS UP IS ON PRIVATE LAND. THE EPA IS TRYING TO SHUT DOWN FRACKING. WE'RE DOWN 17%...
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| 00:26:44 |
HOST, -
THIS TO TRADE ISSUES? CALLER:
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| 00:26:48 |
CALLER, -
WE NEED TO PRODUCE MORE OIL. THE PRICE WILL GO DOWN. IT IS A SIMPLE FACT, SUPPLY AND DEMAND. PLUS WE WOULD HAVE HIGH-PAYING JOBS IN THIS COUNTRY. HOST:...
|
| 00:27:03 |
HOST, -
SIMPLE FACT, INCREASING PRODUCTION. GUEST: JOBS
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| 00:27:07 |
GUEST, -
IN ENERGY HAVE BEEN GROWING QUITE A BIT. THERE IS A BOOM IN THE PLANES IN NORTH DAKOTA BECAUSE OF THIS. IT IS NOT QUITE THAT SIMPLE. OIL IS SOLD ON THE...
|
| 00:27:39 |
HOST, -
LANDEFELD, THERE IS A CHART FOR THE GLOBAL BALANCE. IT SHOWS THE SHARE BY COUNTRY. WHAT DOES THE TITLE MEAN? GUEST:
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| 00:27:54 |
GUEST, -
THIS IS THE REBALANCING OF ECONOMIES. GERMANY, CHINA, AND JAPAN, THE CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCES ARE IN SURPLUS AND HAVE BEEN FOR SOME TIME. THEY DEPEND...
|
| 00:29:04 |
HOST, -
WHAT ELSE WOULD YOU LIKE TO ADD BEFORE WE MOVE ON? GUEST: THE
|
| 00:29:09 |
GUEST, -
FLIP SIDE OF THIS IS THE FINANCING. THE U.S. PRODUCES ONE THING NO ONE ELSE CAN PRODUCE. IT IS IN HIGH DEMAND ALL OVER THE WORLD. THAT IS TREASURY DEBT....
|
| 00:29:44 |
HOST, -
WHAT THE U.S. OWES TO FOREIGNERS IN 2010, TOTAL LIABILITIES TO CHINA. WOULD YOU MIND AN EXPLANATION OF THOSE CATEGORIES? GUEST: WE OWE A
|
| 00:29:58 |
GUEST, -
LITTLE OVER $2 TRILLION TO CHINA. WE HEAR A LOT OF CONCERNS ABOUT THE CHINESE ON IN AMERICA. BECAUSE THE UNITED STATES IS SUCH A LARGE AND RICH NATION,...
|
| 00:31:04 |
HOST, -
SIZE ALSO ADDS TO THE PICTURE AS FAR AS WE HANDLE OUR DEBT TO OTHER COUNTRIES.
|
| 00:31:12 |
GUEST, -
GUEST: ANYTIME YOU ARE BORROWING TO FUND ONGOING OPERATIONS, YOU ARE AT RISK COUNTRIES WILL DECIDE NOT TO LEND TO YOU. THE INTEREST-RATE THE GOVERNMENT...
|
| 00:31:41 |
HOST, -
GARYY, GO AHEAD. CALLER: MY
|
| 00:31:47 |
CALLER, -
QUESTION IS TO RYAN AVENT. FOR THOSE TRYING TO ALLAY THESE POINTS TO THE AMERICAN PEOPLE, I NOTICED THIS MORNING -- I AM A POLITICAL JUNKIE. MOST OF THE...
|
| 00:32:34 |
GUEST, -
ELECTION YEAR, THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF DEBATE ABOUT HOW THE ECONOMY IS DOING. IT WILL BE IN THE INTEREST OF SOME PARTIES TO SAY IT IS DOING BETTER...
|
| 00:33:18 |
HOST, -
WHY A -- HAWAII, GOOD MORNING, GO AHEAD. CALLER: ONE LADY
|
| 00:33:28 |
CALLER, -
REFERRED TO CONDITIONS OF WAR AND TERRIBLE PAY. ASK IF SHE HAS EVER HEARD THE WORDS OF " PURCHASING POWER PARITY." THE DOLLAR IS NOT GETTING STRONGER...
|
| 00:34:52 |
HOST, -
THE QUESTION IS? CALLER: MOST OF THOSE HAD
|
| 00:35:00 |
CALLER, -
BETTER RULES OF LAW AND LESS PIRACY. CHINA DOES NOT FACTOR IN ALL OF ITS COSTS. YOU CAN GO TO THE TOP OF THEM DOWN AND LOOK OUT, YOU CANNOT SEE ACROSS...
|
| 00:35:19 |
HOST, -
THE POINTS THERE. GUEST:
|
| 00:35:23 |
GUEST, -
I THINK THERE IS A PERCEPTION THAT CHINA IS DOING THINGS IN A WAY THAT IS SOMEWHAT UNFAIR. PART OF THAT IS REDUCED LABOR STANDARDS, ENVIRONMENTAL STANDARDS....
|
| 00:36:21 |
CALLER, -
WOULD BE TO THE GENTLEMAN THAT CALLED A LITTLE WHILE BACK TALKING ABOUT THE PIPELINES. I DO NOT UNDERSTAND HIS THEORY AND THE PART ABOUT THE GAS GOING...
|
| 00:36:45 |
HOST, -
OF THE LARGER ISSUES OF TRADE. WHAT WOULD BE YOUR QUESTION? CALLER: ABOUT TRADE,
|
| 00:36:51 |
CALLER, -
IT GOES INTO THE SAME THING. WE TRADE GAS. WE TRADE ALL KIND OF COMMODITIES. IT IS NEVER GOING TO END. I DO NOT UNDERSTAND WHY PEOPLE ARE SO WORRIED...
|
| 00:37:15 |
HOST, -
FINAL THOUGHTS ON THE BIG PICTURE OF WHAT WE HAVE LEARNED ON TRADE. GUEST: THE
|
| 00:37:21 |
GUEST, -
ONLY CONCLUDING COMMENT I MIGHT MAKE IS THERE IS A LOT OF DISCUSSION OF OFFSHOR ING. A LOT OF THOUGHT THAT IS SO OFTEN VILIFIED IS FOR ACCESS TO FOREIGN...
|
| 00:37:48 |
GUEST, -
THE LONG- TERM PICTURE FOR THE U.S. ECONOMY IS PRETTY GOOD. IT WILL CONTINUE TO GET BETTER. AS COUNTRIES LIKE CHINA AND INDIA GROW RICHER, THAT IS A...
|
| 00:38:01 |
HOST, -
BE REMISS WITHOUT SHOWING THESE NUMBERS AS FAR AS THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AND JOBS PICTURE. IT CURRENTLY STANDS AT 8.3% FOR FEBRUARY. 227,000 JOBS ADDED,...
|
NOTE: The transcript for this program was compiled from uncorrected Closed Captioning.