| 00:00:00 |
HOST, -
WE'RE PLEASED TO INTRODUCE YOU TO STEVE LANDEFELD THE DIRECTOR OF THE BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS, AND THIS IS OUR AMERICA BY THE NUMBERS SERIES, AND...
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| 00:00:22 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
TWO AGENCIES THATTISTICAL AGENCIES. OUR BIG SISTER IS THE CENSUS BUREAU. WE PUT TOGETHER DATA FROM PUBLIC AND PRIVATE SOURCES AND ASSEMBLE IT INTO...
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| 00:00:46 |
HOST, -
THOSE STATISTICS YOU ALL CREATE IS G.D.P. GUEST: RIGHT. HOST: WHAT
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| 00:00:51 |
HOST, -
IS G.D.P. K35C9LY AND HOW IS IT MEASURED? GUEST: THE
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| 00:00:58 |
GUEST, -
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT IS THE OVERALL ECONOMIC ACTIVITY INCLUDING CONSUMER SPENDING AND INVESTMENT BY THE PRIVATE AND BUSINESS SECTOR AND THE NET...
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| 00:01:27 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
THE CHANGE? AND IS THERE STILL THE G.N. SNMENT >>
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| 00:01:31 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
YES. IT INCLUDES, HOWEVER, OUR NET EARNINGS ABROAD. AND WHILE IT'S AN IMPORTANT CONCEPT IN TERMS OF -- IT DOESN'T ROLE REFLECT THE PRODUCTION IN...
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| 00:01:52 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
OUR SAME MEASURES AS THE BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS? >>
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| 00:01:56 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
YES. ONE OF THE BEAUTIES OF G.D.P. OR NATIONAL ACCOUNTING AS IT IS CALLED MORE BROADLY IS A SYSTEM OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS WHICH IS ESSENTIALLY ACCOUNTING...
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| 00:02:18 |
HOST, -
OK. THERE ARE SOME CHARTS THAT WE WANT TO SHOW YOU. THIS IS COMPONENTS OF REAL G.D.P. ACCORDING TO THE BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS CONSUMPTION...
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| 00:02:52 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
G.D.P. IS INCLUDED SPENDING ON DURABLE AND NON-DURABLE GOODS. THINGS LIKE TV'S AND AUTOMOBILES. HOST: DOESN'T
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| 00:03:02 |
HOST, -
MATTER WHERE THEY ARE PRODUCED? GUEST:
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| 00:03:05 |
GUEST, -
NO. WE NET THAT OUT LATER IN THE COMPUTATION OF G.D.P. BUT IT'S WHAT WE SPEND AND THEN WE HAVE NON-DURABLE GOODS, WHICH IS YOUR CLOTHING AND THOSE...
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| 00:03:40 |
HOST, -
UNDER CONSUMPTION WHICH IS 70% OF THE ECONOMY. GUEST: YES, AND THINGS
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| 00:03:48 |
GUEST, -
LIKES PLANT AND EQUIPMENT AND EXPLORATION EXPENDITURES FOR OIL WELLS AS WELT AS SPENDING ON THINGS LIKE SOFTWARE AND OTHER INSTANGIBLES THAT WE MEASURE....
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| 00:04:10 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
AND SERVICES ABROAD. THEN FINALLY THE GOVERNMENT PIECE. I SHOULD NOTE WHEN WE TALK ABOUT THIS SHARE OF GOVERNMENT, WE ARE TALKING ABOUT ACTUAL...
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| 00:04:39 |
HOST, -
AND MEDICARE WOULD NOT BE PART OF G.D.P.? >> NO. >> AND WHEN THEY
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| 00:04:46 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
PAY FEDERAL SALARIES, IT IS. HOST:
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| 00:04:50 |
HOST, -
SO THAT'S GOVERNMENT SPENDING. CURRENTLY GOVERNMENT SPENDING MAKES UP 21% OF OUR G.D.P. HAS THAT FIGURE GROWN OVER THE LAST YEARS? YOU'VE BEEN DIRECTOR...
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| 00:05:14 |
GUEST, -
WE TRACK TOTAL GOVERNMENT SPENDING AND OUTLAYS YOU SEE A BIGGER INCREASE. THAT'S WHAT MOST PEOPLE TEND TO FOCUS ON. IT'S ABOUT 25% WHICH IS A RECORD...
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| 00:05:34 |
HOST, -
OUR NUMBERS ON THE SCREEN IF YOU WOULD LIKE TO TALK TO STEVE LANDEFELD, HE IS THE DIRECTOR OF BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS. WE HAVE DIVIDED THEM...
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| 00:06:47 |
GUEST, -
YOU'RE SEEING IS WHEN YOU HAVE SMALL NUMBERS, YOU'RE GOING TO GET THAT KIND OF GROWTH. WHERE YOU DO SEE THE SIGNIFICANCE IN TERMS OF GROWTH, THE...
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| 00:07:12 |
HOST, -
HERE AND YOU CAN SEE OUR G.D.P. ALMOST DOUBLED. GUEST: I SHOULD POINT OUT
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| 00:07:25 |
GUEST, -
IN THE 1970'S WE DID HAVE A RAMPUP IN INFLATION, SO PEOPLE TEND TO LOOK AT REAL OR INFLATIONARY G.D.P. WHAT WAS THE FIGURE YOU PUT OUT ZED GUEST:...
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| 00:07:53 |
GUEST, -
OUT AN ESTIMATE OF G.D.P. WHICH WAS OUT WITHIN A MONTH TO THE END OF THE QUARTER WHICH WAS ONE OF THE MOST TIMELY G.D.P. ESTIMATES IN THE WORLD. WE...
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| 00:08:50 |
HOST, -
A REVISED G.D.P. >> THE BUDGET AND
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| 00:08:57 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
FEDERAL PROJECTIONS OF IT? THE POLICY IS BASED ON OUR G.D.P. ESTIMATES AND IT'S QUITE IMPORTANT, BECAUSE OUR ESTIMATES TREND GROWTH, AND SOME THINGS...
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| 00:09:44 |
HOST, -
ONE HALF OF A PERCENTAGE POINT? GUEST: YES. HOST: I DON'T HAVE THAT
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| 00:09:50 |
HOST, -
CHART. DO YOU HAVE IT? HERE. IF YOU COULD EXPLAIN TO THIS TO OUR VIEWERS. THIS IS A FEDERAL BUDGET DEFICIT PROJECTION. GUEST: THAT IS
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| 00:10:08 |
GUEST, -
THE CUMULATIVE ERROR YOU WILL GET IF IT'S OFF BY A HALF A PERCENTAGE POINT. HOST: SO THE ERROR COULD
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| 00:10:17 |
HOST, -
BE WORTH HALF A BILLION? GUEST:
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| 00:10:23 |
GUEST, -
YES. TOTAL IS A TRILLION DOLLARS. SO WHEN WE TALK ABOUT THE DEFICIT REDUCTION DISCUSSIONS WE'RE HAVING, YOU BEGIN TO SEE THE BASELINE NUMBERS TO GOVERNMENTAL...
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| 00:10:45 |
GUEST, -
YES. $170 BILLION WORTH OF HOUSEHOLD AND BUSINESS ASSETS THAT ARE CONTROLLED THROUGH CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS, HOUSEHOLD EXPECTATIONS AND EXCHANGE RATES....
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| 00:11:16 |
HOST, -
THAT G.D.P. IS TIED TO THE ALLOCATION OF FEDERAL SNUNDS IF THEY WANT TO SPEND X AMOUNT OF DOLLARS ON THIS FEDERAL PROGRAM, WHAT DOES YOUR ECONOMIC ANALYSIS...
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| 00:11:32 |
GUEST, -
BY SOMETHING CALLED THE ASMATH FORMULA USING THE STATE PERSONAL INCOME AND BECAUSE WE TAKE IT AND BREAK IT DOWN. HOST: SO IT PROVIDES THE FORMULA?...
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| 00:11:52 |
GUEST, -
NUMBERS THAT GO INTO THE FORMULA. I LIKE TO THINK OF IT AS PROVIDING THE TOOL KIT FOR PUBLIC AND PRIVATE DECISIONS. HOST: I WANT TO ASK
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| 00:12:01 |
HOST, -
YOU ABOUT THIS CHART RECESSIONS AND REAL G.D.P. YOU HAVE THE CHART THAT SHOWS THE GREAT DEPRESSION, 1930'S, NEGATIVE 27.7%. POST WORLD WAR II AVERAGE...
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| 00:12:21 |
HOST, -
CURRENTLY FROM 2007, THE CURRENT QUARTER THROUGH 2009 SECOND QUARTER, 2EN.0%. GUEST: I THINK WHEN
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| 00:12:58 |
GUEST, -
THE G.D.P. DECLINED OVER A FOUR-YEAR PERIOD BY 27% AND THE UNEMPLOYMENT WAS ABOVE 25. HOST: STEVE LANDEFELD IS
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| 00:13:07 |
HOST, -
OUR GUEST THE DIRECTOR OF THE BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND THIS IS OUR SEGMENT, AMERICA BY THE NUMBERS. RUTH, YOU'RE FIRST UP. GO AHEAD. ...
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| 00:13:20 |
CALLER, -
LOOKING INTO TRYING TO UNDERSTAND THIS WHOLE THING. THE CHART IS REALLY INTERESTING. ONE THING I HAVEN'T BEEN ABLE TO UNDERSTAND IS HOW FINANCIAL SERVICES...
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| 00:13:46 |
GUEST, -
PAYMENTS SHOW UP IN G.D.P. THE INTEREST IN OUR HOME AND HOUSING AND SERVICES NUMBERS. THAT'S WHERE THOSE PAYMENTS SHOW UP. BECAUSE WE'RE ALWAYS RECORDING...
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| 00:14:12 |
HOST, -
FOR STEVE LANDEFELD COMES FROM MASSACHUSETTS. HI, ANTHONY. CALLER: HI, GOOD MORNING. HOST: PLEASE GO AHEAD. CALLER: YES, THE CHART YOU
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| 00:14:20 |
CALLER, -
HAD EARLIER WHERE YOU SHOWED G.D.P. AND WITH THE ADJUSTED INFLATION, I'M JUST WONDERING WHAT MODEL HAS BEEN USED TO CALCULATE THE INFLATION? BECAUSE...
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| 00:15:25 |
GUEST, -
SAME MODEL FOR G.D.P. OVER TIME, SO I'M UNAWARE WHAT YOU'RE SPEAKING OF IN TERMS OF A DIFFERENCE. HOST: HAVE WE USED THE SAME MODEL? GUEST: THE...
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| 00:15:41 |
GUEST, -
USED DOMESTIC VERSUS INTERNATIONAL MODELS GOES BACK TO THE 1950'S WE HAVE MADE OTHER UPDATES, OF COURSE, YOU HAVE TO. IN THE WAY WE CALCULATE G.D.P....
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| 00:16:20 |
HOST, -
THESE CHARTS AVAILABLE AT B.E.A..GOV? GUEST: A LOT OF
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| 00:16:27 |
GUEST, -
THEM ARE AVAILABLE THROUGH OUR PRESS RELEASES AND OTHERS IN BUSINESS. WE CAN CERTAINLY PUT THEM UP ON OUR DIRECTOR'S PAGE IF ANYONE WANTS TO ACCESS...
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| 00:16:49 |
CALLER, -
YOU HAD AT FIRST SEEMED TO ADD UP TO MORE THAN 100%. I WAS WONDERING HOW YOU RECONCILE THAT AND HOW DO YOU ACCOUNT FOR THINGS LIKE DEGRADATION LIKE...
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| 00:17:15 |
GUEST, -
CATCH. YOU MUST BE AN ACCOUNT YOURSELF. WHAT I LEFT OUT OF THAT CHART IS IMPORTS. THEY ARE COUNTED AS A NEGATIVE IN G.D.P., BECAUSE THEY ARE NOT ...
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| 00:18:46 |
HOST, -
DETROIT. YOU'RE ON. >> I HAVE A COMMENT AND THEN
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| 00:18:50 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
A COUPLE QUESTIONS CALLER: I'M REALLY
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| 00:18:53 |
CALLER, -
INTERESTED IN THE FACT THAT THEY SWITCHED FROM MAINLY REPORTING G.N. FOMENT G.D.P. I NOTICED YOU HADN'T MENTIONED -- THE [INAUDIBLE] THE WORLD IS ...
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| 00:19:54 |
GUEST, -
SORRY. WE DO ADJUST AND DE DUCT IMPORTS. FOR EXAMPLE, FOR 2010 WE DEDUCTED $2.4 TRILLION IN IMPORTS TO ACCOUNT FOR OUR G.D.P. IT'S A FINANCIAL CONCEPT...
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| 00:20:31 |
HOST, -
G.N.P. ALWAYS LARGER THAN G.D.P.? GUEST: YES, BECAUSE WE
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| 00:20:37 |
GUEST, -
TEND TO HAVE A SURPLUS. HOST: WHAT'S N.R.
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| 00:20:43 |
HOST, -
INFLATION RATE? IS THAT SOMETHING YOU MEST MEASURE? GUEST:
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| 00:20:48 |
GUEST, -
THE BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS IS THE OFFICIAL MEASURER FOR INFLATION, BUT WE DO PUT OUT A PROTECT THELY USED NUMBERS WHICH IS A PERSONAL CONSUMPTION...
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| 00:21:18 |
HOST, -
THAT DOWN BETWEEN SERVICES, GOODS, DURABLE GOODS AND NON-DURABLE GOODS. GUEST: YES. HOST:
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| 00:21:34 |
HOST, -
DOES BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS DECIDE IF WE'RE IN A RECESSION OR NOT?
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| 00:21:40 |
GUEST, -
GUEST: NO. THE N.B.R. DISCUSS IT AND FRANKLY WE'RE GLAD THEY DO, BECAUSE IT'S A VERY POLITICAL DECISION AND BEST LEFT TO EXTERNAL PEOPLE RATHER THAN...
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| 00:21:53 |
HOST, -
GOOD MORNING. YOU'RE ON WITH STEVE LANDEFELD. CALLER: GOOD
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| 00:21:56 |
CALLER, -
MORNING. I WAS WONDERING IF ANY OF HIS STATISTICS GATHER THE COMMONWEALTH LIKE PUERTO RICO. DO YOU FACTOR IN WHAT THEY PRODUCE AND BUY OR SELL? ...
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| 00:22:19 |
GUEST, -
U.S. G.D.P. DOES NOT INCLUDE PUERTO RICO. BUT WE CURRENTLY HAVE A PROJECT FUNDED BY THE DEPARTMENT OF INTERIOR IN COLLABORATION WITH PUERTO RICO...
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| 00:22:58 |
CALLER, -
YOU PRESSED YOUR CHAURTS IN OUNCES OF GOLD INSTEAD OF DOLLARS, WOULDN'T THEY BE FLAT? GUEST: WELL, UGH, WE
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| 00:23:07 |
GUEST, -
DON'T YOUZHNY PARTICULAR COMMODITY PRICING IN GREAT PART BECAUSE THEY ARE SO VOLATILE, AND YOUR PICTURE WILL TEND TO VARY DRAMATICALLY DEPENDING UPON...
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| 00:23:34 |
HOST, -
I GUESS I EXPECTED ONE OF THOSE FOUR QUADRANTS OF G.D.P., WHICH YOU HAVE TO BE MANUFACTURING. HOW COME? >> ACTUALLY, WE DO
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| 00:23:47 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
ESTIMATE IT, BUT IT'S IN A DIFFERENT COMPONENT. G.D.P. IS SLICED AND DICED IN MANY DIFFERENT WAYS. WE DO IT BY INDUSTRY WHICH IS WHERE MANUFACTURING...
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| 00:24:05 |
HOST, -
DOES THAT MEAN ALSO THAT MANUFACTURING ITSELF HAS DECLINED IN THE UNITED STATES? GUEST: NO. IT'S GROWN, BUT AS A SHARED ACTIVITY, PARTICULARLY SERVICES...
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| 00:24:34 |
HOST, -
BY JOE, REMEMBER, YOU'RE MEASURING PRODUCTION NOT THE SPENDING. DO YOU
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| 00:24:39 |
GUEST, -
UNDERSTAND THAT? GUEST: YES. I DO. EXCEPT THE ANSWER IS WE DO IT ALL DIFFERENT WAYS. WE MEASURE IT BY THE PRODUCTION MEASURE, WHICH IS WHERE YOU GET THE...
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| 00:25:13 |
HOST, -
CHICAGO. GO, PLEASE. CALLER: HI,
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| 00:25:17 |
CALLER, -
STEVE. YOU MENTIONED IF YOUR G.D.P. ESTIMATE IS OFF BY A HALF A PERCENTAGE THEN THE GOVERNMENT'S BUDGET CAN BE OFF BY AS MUCH AS A TRILLION DOLLARS...
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| 00:25:43 |
GUEST, -
PERCENT ERROR IS IN OUR TREND OF GROWTH FOR G.D.P., SO IT'S A PERSISTENT ERROR. AND THEY BUDGET EACH YEAR A TABLE OF -- IT SHOWS THE ALTERNATIVE...
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| 00:26:12 |
HOST, -
PORTLAND, OREGON, HI, YOU'RE ON WITH STEVE LANDEFELD, DIRECTOR OF THE BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS. CALLER: HEY, GOOD
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| 00:26:23 |
CALLER, -
MORNING. I NOTICE THE CALLER, I THINK IT WAS THREE CALLERS BACK ASKED THE QUESTION WHAT IS THE -- DO YOU TRACK THE AMOUNT OF MONEY THAT ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS...
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| 00:26:59 |
GUEST, -
LOCAL SPENDING BY THE -- WITH A WE -- HOST: FOR JUSTICE TWEETS IN
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| 00:27:07 |
HOST, -
OUR GROWING DEBT HAS OR SOON WILL EXCEED G.D.P., AND THERE IS A GROWING CHANCE OF A DECLINE IN G.D.P. IN ENSUING YEARS. I GUESS AND HE'S OR SHE IS...
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| 00:27:26 |
GUEST, -
A THATTISTICAL AGENCY, WE HAVE NOW ENOUGH TROUBLELY SAY THAT YES THAT THE U.S. DEBT FEDERAL DEBT IS APPROACHING G.D.P. I THINK IT'S AROUND 80-PLUS PERCENT....
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| 00:27:53 |
GUEST, -
VIEWERS YOU'RE COMPARING STOCK TO NBLING SO THOSE ARE TWO DIFFERENT SETS OF STATISTICS, JUAN BALANCE SHEET AND THE OTHER A FLOW. AND WE FIND THAT...
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| 00:29:26 |
HOST, -
FOR STEVE LANDEFELD OF THE BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS. CALLER: GOOD
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| 00:29:31 |
CALLER, -
MORNING. MY QUESTION IS WHAT I WAS CURIOUS ABOUT IS DOES THE G.D.P., THE MONEY WE LEND TO OTHER COUNTRIES, THE PERCENTAGES ON THE INTEREST RATE,...
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| 00:30:25 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
A COMPREHENSIVE ACCOUNTING SYSTEM, SO WE HAVE ANYTIME OUR ACCOUNTING AND ALL THOSE WRITE-DOWNS WHICH WOULD BE REFLECTED IN THE BALANCE SHEET THEN...
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| 00:30:55 |
HOST, -
MR. STEVE LANDEFELD YOU HAVE BEEN THE DIRECTOR IN BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS. BUT YOUR BACKGROUND, DID YOU NOT WORK FOR THE BUSH ONE WHITE HOUSE? IS...
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| 00:31:28 |
GUEST, -
TIME AS DIRECTOR OF B.E.A., WE REALLY HAVE HAD NO POLITICAL PRESSURE. INDEED I RECALL AN INSTANCE WHERE WE HAD TO CHANGE AN UPDATE WHICH LOWERED THE...
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| 00:32:20 |
CALLER, -
THINK YOU SAID 1997 TO THE PRESENT, I'LL USE MY EXAMPLE. WHEN WE GET THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, WHAT ARE THE COMP OPPONENTS OF THAT? NON-FARM PAYROLL...
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| 00:32:51 |
GUEST, -
KEEP UP WITH THE RAPID CHANGES IN THE ECONOMY -- WE ARE CONSTANTLY TRYING TO COME UP WITH TRYING TO KEEP UP WITH THEM. BUT THERE ARE SOME GAPS IN OUR...
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| 00:33:28 |
HOST, -
WITH CHANGES TO THE ECONOMY, THE RISE OF THE INTERNET? I MEAN, HOW DO YOU CREATE NEW MEASURES? >> WE DRAW PRIVATE AND
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| 00:33:43 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
PUBLIC DATA. SO ANYTHING OUT THERE FOR USAGE FOR EXAMPLE EARLY ON WHEN WE SAW THE RISE AND WE THOUGHT IT WASN'T BEING INCORPORATED IN THE NORMAL RESAIL...
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| 00:34:33 |
HOST, -
NUMBERS THAT YOU WERE GOING TO RELEASE AT 9:30 A.M. WHAT WERE THEY? GUEST: WE SHOWED
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| 00:34:41 |
GUEST, -
PERSONAL INCOME, AND WE SHOWED A DROP IN PERSONAL INCOME. ALSO SHOWED A DROP IN REAL DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME AND CONSUMER SPENDING IN REAL TERMS...
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| 00:34:56 |
HOST, -
THE EXPECTATIONS WHEN THEY SAY SUCH AND SUCH WAS EXPECTED, HOWEVER, THE REAL NUMBERS ARE BLAH? GUEST:
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| 00:35:05 |
GUEST, -
WELL, WALL STREET AND FORECASTERS USING THE SAME SOURCE DATA WE DO ATTEMPT TO FORECAST. THEY USUALLY DO A PRETTY GOOD JOB OF FORECASTING. THEY DON'T...
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| 00:35:35 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
LINE WITH THE EXPECTATION NUMBERS? GUEST: I'M
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| 00:35:38 |
GUEST, -
SORRY. I USUALLY KNOW THE G.D.P. EXPECTATIONS ALTHOUGH THEY ARE USUALLY PRETTY IMPORTANT BECAUSE THIS AUGUST NUMBER IS AS WE JUST TALKED ABOUT, CONSUMER...
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| 00:35:59 |
HOST, -
TO CLARIFY FROM K.P. PATAO. G.D.P. IS OFF BY ONE HALF PERCENT REGULARLY. MAKE YOU FEEL GOOD? THIS MEANS A TRILLION-DOLLAR MISTAKE IS TAKEN FOR GRANTED....
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| 00:36:16 |
GUEST, -
THAT YES, OUR NUMBERS DO ACTUALLY -- IF THE READER IS INTERESTED, YOU CAN GO TO THE GENERAL -- TO THE B.E.A. WEBSITE. YOU CAN GO THERE. HOST: A...
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| 00:36:40 |
HOST, -
OF THIS INFORMATION IS GENERALLY THERE. STEVE LANDEFELD IS THE DIRECTOR OF THE BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS, WHICH IS PART OF THE COMMERCE DEPARTMENT....
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| 00:36:55 |
HOST, -
KNOW ON BOOK TV THIS WEEKEND WHICH IS ESPN2, 48 HOURS OF NON-FICTION BOOKS, MICHAEL MOORE WILL BE OUR GUEST AT NOON EASTERN TIME ON SUNDAY. MICHAEL...
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NOTE: The transcript for this program was compiled from uncorrected Closed Captioning.