| 00:00:12 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
THE NEXT PANEL. I FEEL IT IS ONE OF THE MOST TIMELY EXPLORING IT THE MOMENT AND CERTAINLY AT THE DINNER LAST NIGHT AND JUST IN GENERAL TO REALIZE...
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| 00:02:45 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
GOING TO BE A LONG ROAD. IF YOU LOOK AT THE SURVEY THEY ARE GOING TO EXPECT INCREASED BY 0.7%. THAT EQUATES TO 100,000 PAYROLL THAT BASICALLY MEANS...
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| 00:03:04 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
WHERE WE ARE AND THIS IS THE SECOND ANNIVERSARY OF THE BEGINNING OF THIS RECOVERY. WHEN THE RECESSION ENDED, BELIEVE IT OR NOT, AND IT HASN'T EVEN...
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| 00:04:44 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
YOU POINT OUT IN THE LAST DECADE CHINA IS THE BIGGEST CONTRIBUTOR TO GROWTH THAT ABOUT 21%. SO, ALL THIS NEGATIVITY THE U.S. SITUATION IN A GLOBAL CONTEXT...
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| 00:05:50 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
BE MORE MUTUAL, AND THE GROWTH RATE AND THE GLOBAL RECOVERY. >> THAT SOUNDS LIKE
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| 00:05:55 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
THEY CAN ENGINEER MORE OF A SOFTER GLIDE PAST TO RECOVERY. I'D LIKE TO SEE A SHOW OF HANDS IN THE ROOM, WHO EXPECTS INTEREST RATES WILL BE HIGHER IN...
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| 00:06:47 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
STORY IS THE CYCLICAL ONE. THE SMI IS -- THE ECONOMY IS IN A BAD SHAPE. IT'S NOT OUT OF THE FORECLOSURE THAT THE ECONOMY COULDN'T TREND BELOW, AND UNDER...
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| 00:07:59 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
WOULD YOU AGREE THAT INVESTORS ARE BEING COMPLACENT? IS IT POSSIBLE WHEN THEY LOOK AT THE DEBT CEILING THE BIGGEST RISK IS NOT NECESSARILY DEFAULT,...
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| 00:08:18 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
THE GOOD PIECES OF NEWS IN RECENT MONTHS IS THIS PROPOSAL TO LENGTHEN THAT LIMIT INCREASE TO SPENDING REDUCTIONS. SOME SAY WE NEED A $2.2 TRILLION ...
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| 00:09:42 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
FISCAL POLICY AND THE FEDERAL RESERVE IS MEETING NOW, AND IF YOU WERE TO ASK WHICH PART OF GOVERNMENT MATTERS MORE THAN TO THEM, IT'S THE FED, NOT...
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| 00:10:11 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
I THINK THAT CERTAINLY THERE'S REASON FOR THE U.S. ECONOMY TO MAINTAIN A MONETARY POLICY AND LOWER INTEREST RATE, BUT AT THE SAME TIME I THINK FISCAL...
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| 00:11:04 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
ARE YOU NOT? >> IT'S YES OR NO, DEPENDS
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| 00:11:07 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
HOW YOU SPEND THE MONEY. IF YOU SPEND THE MONEY IN AREAS WHICH CAN ENHANCE THE CAPACITY. IN THE SHORT RUN, YOU CREATE JOBS, FIT THE DEMAND, BUT IN...
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| 00:11:27 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
FISCAL SPENDING, DO WE RISK A JAPAN EVENT WHERE WE THINK THE ECONOMY CAN HANDLE IT, AND TURNS OUT THAT REALLY IT COULDN'T? >> I DON'T THINK THERE'S
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| 00:11:37 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
MUCH CHANCE OF THAT AT ALL. IT'S THE LAST OF MY WORRIES. L BIGGEST WORRY IS WE POSTPONE THE PROMISES TO THE FUTURE TO REDUCE SPENDING AND DON'T TAKE...
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| 00:12:10 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
RECOVERY. >> LARRY? >> WELL, JOHN AND I
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| 00:12:12 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
JUST ABSOLUTELY DISAGREE ON THAT, AS WE KNOW. WE'VE HAD LONG STANDING DISPUTES ON THIS. ONE, I THINK THE FISCAL STIMULUS POLICIES WERE EFFECTIVE TO...
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| 00:13:49 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
THE POINT. YOU GOT TO GET STARTED. >> SO WE
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| 00:13:52 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
HAVEN'T MENTIONED INFLATION THAT MUCH, AND I THINK IF YOU'D ASK PEOPLE IN SURVEYS 36 MONTHS AGO WHAT THE BIGGEST CONCERN WAS, IT WAS PROBABLY INFLATION,...
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| 00:14:21 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
SEE EASING OFF OF -- WE'VE SEEN THAT ALREADY ON SOME OF THE HEADLINE MEASURES WITH GASOLINE PRICES, BUT I THINK IT'S SORT OF A DOWN, AND THEN YOU'RE...
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| 00:14:56 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
THERE'S A MATERIAL CONCERN TO SAY IF INFLATION'S NOT THE WORRY, THE WORRY WE'VE BEEN WORRIED ABOUT INFLATION IN A WEAK ECONOMY, DO YOU PUT THE ODDS OF...
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| 00:15:15 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
RECESSION INCREDIBLY LOW, BUT THERE'S SO MANY RISKS TO THE ECONOMY. YOU KNOW, YOU CAN'T JUST SAY THAT'S IMPOSSIBLE. IMPLOSION IN EUROPE, AN IMPRUDENT...
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| 00:16:08 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
3%? >>
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| 00:16:09 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
WELL, -- >>
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| 00:16:14 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
3.5%? >>3.5 PERCENT AND THREE A
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| 00:16:20 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
QUART NEXT YEAR. >> DO YOU THINK
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| 00:16:23 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
THE EARTHQUAKE HURT THE ECONOMY AND WE'LL REBOUND IN THE MONTHS TO COME? >> I THINK THE IMPACT WITH
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| 00:16:31 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
THE EARTHQUAKE IN JAPAN WAS LARGER THAN EXPECTED, AND WE ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER, AND OTHER HIGH INCOME COUNTRIES CAN ALSO FREE IN THE GAP THAT JAPANESE...
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| 00:16:54 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
THING BEFORE WE OPEN IT TO QUESTIONS BECAUSE I'M SURE THERE'S MANY, BUT WE TALKED ABOUT INFORMATION OVERLOAD LAST NIGHT IN THE SENSE THAT NOW WE HAVE...
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| 00:17:36 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
BETWEEN DATA OVERLOAD AND OVERSIMPLIFICATION SO TO THINK THAT YOU CAN LOOK AT ONE PIECE OF DATA, I COULD TALK ABOUT DATA THAT WOULD BE WORTH LOOKING...
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| 00:17:57 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
YOU JUST WANT TO PAY FOR YOUR SERVICE, YOUR MACROECONOMIC ADVISER. >> YOU GOT
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| 00:18:03 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
IT. YOU GOT IT. THAT WOULD
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| 00:18:05 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
HELP. >> OKAY. HE TAKES A PASS, JOHN? >> I
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| 00:18:09 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
THINK YOU SHOULD BE LOOKING AT THE MOVES OF MONETARY POLICY IN THE NEXT SIX MONTHS TO A YEAR. I THINK IF THERE'S AN IMBALANCE TO THE WORLD ECONOMY NOW...
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| 00:19:12 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
YOU WANT A QUICK REBUTTAL HERE. >> YEAH, WELL,
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| 00:19:15 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
IT'S THE QUESTION OF WHO SHOULD ADJUST TO WHAT. LET ME TAKE CHINA WHILE WE'RE HERE, AND JUSTIN IS UNBELIEVABLY REASONABLE, AND I DON'T WANT TO GET...
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| 00:20:22 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
OPEN TO A QE3 THEN? >> I DON'T THINK
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| 00:20:26 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
IT IT HAPPEN THEN. THE FORECAST SAYS IT WON'T HAPPEN. QE3, THE HURDLE IS INCREDIBLY HIGH, BUT THE OTHER THINGS THAT THE FOMC CAN DO SHORT OF QE3 TO...
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| 00:20:43 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
FOR ME, THE MOST IMPORTANT INFORMATION I'D LIKE TO LOOK A THE FOOD PRICES IN THE WORLD. >> FOOD
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| 00:20:49 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
PRICES? >> YEAH, BECAUSE EVERY
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| 00:20:53 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
10% INCREASE IN THE FOOD PRICE CAUSES 10 MILLION PEOPLE TO DROP BACK TO POVERTY, AND WE KNOW NOW A STOCK OF GRAIN IS SMALL, AND THE WAGER IN THE WORLD,...
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| 00:21:22 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
GREAT. ALLEN? >> YEAH, KELLY, I WANT TO
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| 00:21:25 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
TURN THE TABLES A LITTLE BIT ON THE GROUP HERE BECAUSE I THINK THE DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN JOHN TAYLOR AND LARRY MEYER OF WHAT THE EFFECT OF FISCAL TIGHTENING...
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| 00:22:17 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
SPOT? >> [INAUDIBLE] >> YEAH,
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| 00:22:19 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
YEAH, SURE, YOUR VIEW OF THIS. >> I'M NOT SURE
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| 00:22:23 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
THE U.S. GOVERNMENT GETS ALL GOOD ADVICE FROM GENTLEMEN LIKE WE HAVE ON THE PANEL. I BELIEVE WE NEED TO BE VERY AWARE ABOUT THE FACT THAT COMPANIES...
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| 00:23:06 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
THREAT. >> NO, IT'S
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| 00:23:09 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
ENCOURAGEMENT. [LAUGHTER] >> THAT'S WHY I BELIEVE
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| 00:23:12 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
TIGHT PING OR NOT TIGHTENING OF THE MONETARY POLICY IN THE UNITED STATES IS NOT THE SAFEST STRATEGY OF GLOBAL ACTING COMPANIES. >> IT WOULD NOT AFFECT
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| 00:23:22 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
THE STRATEGY OF -- >> NOT
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| 00:23:24 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
NECESSARILY. >> ANYONE
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| 00:23:28 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
ELSE? ANYONE ELSE WANT TO COMMENT ON THIS? I DO THINK THIS IS AN IMPORTANT PART OF THE CALCULATION. >> ACTUALLY,
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| 00:23:37 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
CAN I SAY
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| 00:23:38 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
SOMETHING? >> GO AHEAD. >> IT'S RELATED TO YOUR
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| 00:23:40 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
QUESTION BECAUSE IT'S VERY CLEAR FOR THOSE OF US WHO HOPE THAT OUR FISCAL POLICY WILL IMPROVE THE ECONOMY, THE IDEA IS THERE'S A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY...
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| 00:24:35 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
YOU IF THAT UNCERTAINTY IS HOLDING YOU BACK FROM INVESTMENTS OR JUST A SLOW ECONOMY, AND WOULD YOU BE BETTER OFF, WOULD YOU SAY THAT'S GREAT, TAKE AWAY...
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| 00:25:14 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
WAY. POLICY UNCERTAINTY VERSUS -- [INAUDIBLE] HOW MANY OF YOU WOULD SAY POLICY URN CERTAINTY HOLDS YOU BACK? HOW MANY SAY SALES UNCERTAINTY IS THE BIGGER...
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| 00:25:34 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
ADD SOMETHING? >> LARRY, THAT WOULD BE TO
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| 00:25:36 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
YOUR POINT. >> YEAH, I KNEW
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| 00:25:39 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
THE RESPONSE. IF I MAY COME BACK WHAT I SAID EARLIER WITHOUT PUTTING MY AMERICAN'S COMPANY HAT ON BECAUSE THE UNITED STATES ARE THE SINGLE BIGGEST COUNTRY...
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| 00:26:35 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
ARE YOU HAVING TROUBLE FILLING THOSE IN >> YEAH, ABSOLUTELY. WE HAVE 3,000 OPEN JOBS, JUST OPENED A NEW FACTORY, AND THAT'S ANOTHER THOUSAND, AND WE...
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| 00:26:49 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
AND SEE IF THERE'S OTHER COMMENTS ABOUT THE NATURE OF THE UN CERTAINTY AFFECTING BUSINESS DECISIONS. ANY ONE ELSE WANT TO JUMP INTO THIS? ANYONE WHO...
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| 00:27:09 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
IS THAT TWO THINGS ARE OBVIOUSLY VERY CONNECTED PARTICULARLY AT THE MOMENT AS, YOU KNOW, THE WORLD'S BEEN THROUGH THIS BIG CRISIS, THE GOVERNMENTS...
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| 00:28:58 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
HELP. >> SURE. I THINK IT BOILS DOWN TO THE AUSTERITY ARGUMENT PLAYING OUT FOR A COUPLE YEARS NOW, AND I'M CURIOUS WHETHER YOU GUYS SEE IT SETTLED ONE...
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| 00:29:15 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
RESPOND TO WHAT THIS GENTLEMAN SAID BECAUSE I THINK IT'S JUST ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT POINTS, AND I'M REALLY CURIOUS WHETHER OTHERS IN THE AUDIENCE...
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| 00:30:01 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
RESPOND TO THAT QUESTION ALSO. I AGREE THAT THERE IS THE ISSUE THERE AS LARRY EXPLAINED, BUT AT THE SAME TIME,
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| 00:30:10 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
I THINK -- >> [INAUDIBLE] >> BECAUSE WE KNOW THAT HALF
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| 00:30:16 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
OF THE UNDER UNITLYIZATION OF FACTORIES IS IN THE FACTORIES. IF YOU HAVE DEMAND FOR HOUSING INFRASTRUCTURE, THOSE WORKERS CAN BE EMPLOYED. THERE HAS...
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| 00:30:38 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
UH-HUH. >> IF I MAY AGAIN, THE
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| 00:30:44 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
QUESTION IS THE CAPACITIES IN AREAS THAT WE DO NOT NEED THE CAPACITIES IN ANYMORE, AND DO WE HAVE OVERUTILIZED CAPACITIES ALSO TO FILL THE DEMAND....
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| 00:31:58 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
ONE MORE QUESTION, MAYBE BACK THERE. >> WE'VE TALKED ABOUT
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| 00:32:05 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
THE COMPANIES PERSPECTIVE, WE TALKED ABOUT THE CONSUMER PERSPECTIVE, BUT ONE RELEVANT PER SPECTTIVE IS THE MARKET IN THE INVESTOR PERSPECTIVE, AND CERTAINLY...
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| 00:33:15 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
A QE3 AS MUCH AS AN AUGUST 2 DECISION THAT EVERYONE CAN FEEL GOOD ABOUT? >> I THINK FROM WANT
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| 00:33:23 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
MARKET'S PERSPECTIVE, THAT'S ACTUALLY A VERY ACCURATE COMPARISON. I THINK WE'VE HAD EVERYONE THAT HAS FACTORED IN THE QE EASINGS AND THE POTENTIAL ECONOMIC...
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| 00:33:51 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
LARRY, QUICK. >> YOU KNOW, I DON'T WORK
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| 00:33:54 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
WITH FIRMS THAT PRODUCE WIDGETS, BUT THESE GUYS DO. IT'S NOT UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHAT'S DONE, BUT WHAT'S DONE. DO WE GET CREDIBLECEPSBLE PROGRAMS? I...
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| 00:34:21 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
KNOW, PREDICTABILITY WHICH I HEAR YOU REFER TO IS VERY IMPORTANT. IT'S NOT ONLY IMPORTANT FOR THE MARKETS, BUT IT'S IMPORTANT FOR CONSUMERS, AND WHEN...
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| 00:35:28 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
CAUTION SHOWING UP IN THE CFO SURVEYS AND CERTAINLY THE OUTLOOK SPEAKING OF UNCERTAINTY IT'S MIXED, BUT THANK YOU FOR SHARING YOUR VIEW, AND MAYBE NEXT...
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NOTE: The transcript for this program was compiled from uncorrected Closed Captioning.