| 00:00:23 |
Harding, Robin - Editor
HOUR. >> OKAY. ARE WE READY? SO I'M TOLD THERE'S A COFFEE BREAK AFTER THE SESSION SO IF YOU CAN GET THROUGH THIS ONE, YOU CAN GO OFF AND HAVE SOMETHING...
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| 00:02:37 |
Fischer, Stanley - Governor
A COLLEAGUE WHO ALWAYS USED TO SAY IN DISCUSSIONS, CONSIDER A TYPICAL COUNTRY. ITALY, FOR EXAMPLE. WELL, I'LL CONSIDER A TYPICAL COUNTRY, ISRAEL, FOR...
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| 00:04:24 |
Tarullo, Daniel K. - Member
THE BASIC QUESTION THAT EVERYBODY WILL BE ASKING, IS WHETHER THIS IS A ONE OFF OR A SHORT TERM INCREASE THAT IS GOING TO BE PERSISTENT OR IS GOING...
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| 00:06:10 |
Orszag, Peter R. - Director
AND INDIA. IN CHINA AND INDIA, I THINK THE RISKS ARE INFLATION. WE MAY END UP WITH 5% INFLATION IN CHINA THIS YEAR, AND 8% IN INDIA. IN THE UNITED STATES,...
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| 00:07:58 |
Cox, Archibald - Chairman
HIGHER INFLATION IN THE FUTURE. >> I DIDN'T KNOW YOU WERE GOING TO ASK ME A QUESTION. LET ME JUST BRIEFLY ADDRESS -- I THINK IT'S QUITE RIGHT TO SAY...
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| 00:09:37 |
Harding, Robin - Editor
I THINK. >> THE CENTRAL BANK GOVERNMENT WILL BE GLAD TO HEAR THAT. LET'S GO BACK TO THE QUESTION OF WHETHER THIS IS A ONE OFF RISE OR WHETHER WE'RE...
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| 00:09:57 |
Fischer, Stanley - Governor
CHINA WAS PRODUCING A DEFLATIONARY EFFECT. THE PRICES MANUFACTURED WERE ALL GOING DOWN. AND NOW IT'S GONE THE OTHER WAY. I THINK THERE'S OBVIOUSLY GROWING...
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| 00:11:26 |
Tarullo, Daniel K. - Member
TO LONG TERM TREND IS GOING TO BE. WHAT YOU DO KNOW IS WHAT A CENTRAL BANKER, WHAT YOUR HORIZON FOR MONETARY POLICY IS. I THINK OUR EFFORT, AND I WOULD...
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| 00:12:28 |
Orszag, Peter R. - Director
HAVE ARISEN. IF YOU TAKE THE COPPER MARKET, THE DIVERGENCE BETWEEN PRICE AND THE TRADITIONAL MARGINAL COSTS OF PRODUCTION METRIC THAT HAS BEEN USED...
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| 00:13:06 |
Cox, Archibald - Chairman
THAT. THE VERY DIFFERENT THINGS, ENERGY, BASE METALS, FOOD ARE VERY DIFFERENT -- INFLUENCED BY VERY DIFFERENT FACTORS. TO PREDICT OUT FIVE YEARS IS...
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| 00:13:21 |
Harding, Robin - Editor
POLICY, AND I WANT TO ASK PETER ORSZAG ABOUT THIS. PRESIDENT OBAMA YESTERDAY GAVE A SPEECH. I WOULD LIKE TO GET YOUR REACTION TO THAT. >> I THINK THE...
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| 00:13:51 |
Orszag, Peter R. - Director
SO THAT WAS UNDERSCORED AGAIN. BUT IT WASN'T PARTICULARLY NEW. THE TWO NEW THINGS ARE THAT HE LAID OUT -- HE SORT OF DOUBLED DOWN ON THE MEDICARE...
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| 00:18:30 |
Fischer, Stanley - Governor
EXAMPLE? >> WE WORRY ABOUT THE QUESTION WHETHER THE U.S. IS GOING TO GET ITS HOUSE IN ORDER IN THE SENSE THAT WE CANNOT CONTINUE TO RUN DEFICITS ON THE...
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| 00:20:04 |
Tarullo, Daniel K. - Member
CREDIBLE DEAL FOR NEXT YEAR? >> YOU'RE ASSUMING AN ANSWER DIFFERENT THAN THE ONE PETER -- >> YES MUCH. >> AGAIN, THE TIME HORIZON FOR MONETARY POLICY...
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| 00:21:08 |
Harding, Robin - Editor
AND THUS MARKET ACTORS. >> AND WHAT DO YOU THINK IS OKAY WITH LETTING THE DEFICIT QUESTION ROLL A FEW YEARS LONGER. HOW MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE DOES...
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| 00:21:30 |
Cox, Archibald - Chairman
AND I THINK THAT A LONG TERM PLAN, IF YOU WILL. WHICH I DON'T THINK WE'LL GET, IF WE DO GET IT. I'M NOT SURE THAT THE PRIVATE SECTOR HAS CONFIDENCE...
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| 00:22:50 |
Tarullo, Daniel K. - Member
THE U.S. DEFICIT. THE LARGE SCALE ASSET PURCHASE PROGRAM THAT WE AGREED ON LAST NOVEMBER THAT WAS FORESHADOWED IN THE CHAIRMAN'S SPEECH IN AUGUST, WAS...
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| 00:24:47 |
Harding, Robin - Editor
AND AFFILIATION, EVEN IF IT'S A COMMENT, TRY TO PHRASE IT AS A QUESTION. >> I HAVE A QUESTION. THE TRIGGER YOU ARE
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| 00:25:11 |
Q&A, -
PROPOSING DEFEND ING DEFENDING IS AN INSURANCE -- ISN'T THAT PRICE THAT YOU ARE BOUND TO HAVE MORE SHORT TERM MANAGEMENT OF THE BUDGET AND THAT PUBLIC...
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| 00:25:30 |
Orszag, Peter R. - Director
PUBLIC INVESTMENTS MAY SUFFER PERIOD IN AN ERA IN WHICH THERE IS GROWING CONCERN OVER OUR FISCAL TRAJECTORY. IMPORTANTLY, THIS IS THE KEY PART. AN UNWILLINGNESS...
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| 00:27:20 |
Q&A, -
FOR PROFESSOR FISCHER. WITH SO MUCH GOING ON IN THE WORLD NOWADAYS, EMERGING MARKETS ARE FACING RISKS AND CHANGES KIND OF IN DIFFERENT BUSINESS...
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| 00:27:47 |
Fischer, Stanley - Governor
MISSION IMPOSSIBLE? >> DO YOU MEAN CAN THE EMERGING AND DEVELOPING COUNTRIES HAVE POLICY COOPERATION. >> POLICY COORDINATION AS THEY ARE IN A DIFFERENT...
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| 00:29:06 |
Tarullo, Daniel K. - Member
PROVIDE. >> IN THE ABSENCE OF COORDINATION, EACH COUNTRY IS GROWING TO HAVE TO RESPOND TO THE CONDITIONS IT FINDS FOR ITS OWN ECONOMY. AND I THINK...
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| 00:30:01 |
Q&A, -
WELL. >> I HEARD A COMMENT THAT WOULD SAY, THERE IS NO REASON TO GO TO A QE3, THERE'S ENOUGH GAS IN THE CAR. WE DON'T NEED TO DO THAT. IT'S UP TO THE...
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| 00:30:17 |
Tarullo, Daniel K. - Member
WORKS. >> I DON'T THINK THERE'S ANY QUESTION, BUT WE'VE DONE A LOT. AND I THINK THE RECORD IS QUITE CLEAR THAT WHAT WE'VE DONE HAD AN EFFECT IN THE U.S....
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| 00:31:56 |
Q&A, -
ELECTION YEAR COMING UP. OBVIOUSLY IN THE PERVERSE WAY THAT WASHINGTON SOMETIMES WORKS, DOES THAT OFFER ANY HOPE FOR A COMPROMISE IN FACE OF THE ELECTORATE?...
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| 00:32:22 |
Orszag, Peter R. - Director
I FIND IT UNLIKELY WE WILL TACKLE -- LET'S BREAK THIS DOWN A LITTLE BIT. WE HAVE THE 2015 FISCAL PROBLEM. THE 2015 FISCAL PROBLEM IS THAT THE PROJECTED...
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| 00:33:37 |
Cox, Archibald - Chairman
TWICE AS MANY PEOPLE WILL BECOME ELIGIBLE FOR MEDICARE AS ARE TODAY? OR WERE IN 2010? IN THE NEXT 20 YEARS? >> WE'RE ABOUT TO HIT -- THE BABY BOOMERS...
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| 00:36:38 |
Q&A, -
FISCHER A QUESTION. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE FUTURE PACE OF INFLATION. IT MAY INTO THE BE ONE OFF RISE. AND IF IT CONTINUES, THEN WHAT SHOULD...
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| 00:37:57 |
Fischer, Stanley - Governor
YOU WANT TO GO FIRST? >> I DON'T THINK RAISING THE INFLATION RATE BY 1% IS GOING TO SOLVE THE FISCAL PROBLEM. THAT WAS A SUGGESTION BECAUSE SO MANY CENTRAL...
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| 00:40:27 |
Tarullo, Daniel K. - Member
POLICY TOOL OR CAPACITY FOR CENTRAL BANKS, WHICH WAS -- IN ORDER TO BE ABLE TO RESPOND IN THEIR VIEW, MORE EFFECTIVELY TO TIES WHICH WERE ZERO BOUND....
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| 00:41:27 |
Q&A, -
MENTIONED. >> IF I HAVE MY MATH RIGHT, CONCERNING DOMESTIC POLITICAL NEGOTIATING STRATEGIES, THE PRESIDENT IN ORDER TO FIX THE BUDGET HAS THREE PARTS...
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| 00:42:43 |
Orszag, Peter R. - Director
BEEN DONE IN THAT SITUATION IS, IF YOU HAVE A DOLLAR OF INCREASED REVENUE, AND THEN THAT SAVES DEBT SERVICE FROM REDUCED DEBT, YOU COUNT THE DEBT SERVICE...
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| 00:44:30 |
Fischer, Stanley - Governor
THE NEGOTIATIONS. IT'S A LITTLE HARDER TO MANAGE THE BUDGET IN THE COUNTRY. THE GOVERNMENT CONTROLS THE BUDGET IN A WAY THAT IT JUST DOESN'T HERE....
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| 00:44:58 |
Q&A, -
PROBLEMS AFFECT OR CONSTRAIN YOUR OWN POLICY OPTION SS. >> I THINK FROM OUR POINT OF
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| 00:45:14 |
Tarullo, Daniel K. - Member
VIEW, THE ISSUE WOULD OBVIOUSLY BE THE DEGREE TO WHICH PROBLEMS IN THE EUROZONE EITHER FINANCIAL OR REAL ECONOMY WOULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT EFFECTS OR...
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| 00:46:36 |
Fischer, Stanley - Governor
PROBLEMS. >> EUROPEANS ARE NOT LETTING COUNTRIES DEFAULT AT THE TIME WHEN EVERYBODY WAS EXPECTING THEM TO. IF THAT AT ALL -- THE EURO ITSELF LOOKS...
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| 00:48:07 |
Q&A, -
EURO. >> MAKE US QUICKLY ON THE EU SINCE WE'RE THERE. IF YOU CHANGE THE TITLE TO HIGHWIRE ACT, AGGREGATE INFLATION AND BALANCING GROWTH. AND LOOK...
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| 00:49:26 |
Fischer, Stanley - Governor
I THINK THAT IT WILL MANAGE IT IN THE WAY THAT IT'S DOING NOW. I'M RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSED BY THE ARGUMENT FOR INDEPENDENT MONETARY POLICIES. WE ALL...
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| 00:51:08 |
Harding, Robin - Editor
CONCERN, I GUESS IS ALWAYS STORING UP A CRISIS. IS IT JUST BECAUSE IT'S NOTE POSSIBLE FOR INVEST HES TO RUN OUT, THAT INTEREST RATES IN THE WORLD REMAIN...
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| 00:51:29 |
Orszag, Peter R. - Director
SEE A 3.5 TREASURY YIELD, I THINK THIS IS PART OF THE EXPLANATION. WE HAVE TWO CYCLES GOING ON HERE. THE ONE WE WERE DISCUSSING OF AN UNSUSTAINABLE...
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| 00:52:31 |
Cox, Archibald - Chairman
IS STILL THE STRONGEST COUNTRY IN THE WORLD. YES, WE HAVE A FISCAL PROBLEM. BUT I THINK WHETHER IT GETS SOLVED THIS YEAR OR IN THE FUTURE. I THINK...
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| 00:54:07 |
Q&A, -
THERE. >> PERHAPS MOST SPECIFICALLY FOR ARCHIBALD AND PETER, IN TERMS OF INCREASING TAX REVENUE WHILE STILL ENSURING ECONOMIC GROWTH. WOULD IT BE BETTER...
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| 00:54:41 |
Orszag, Peter R. - Director
HAS INERTIA PLAY ON REVENUE INCREASE. WHICH IS TO ALLOW ALL OF THE TAX CUTS, NOT JUST UPPER ONES, BUT MIDDLE INCOME ONES TO EXPIRE. WHICH WOULD...
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| 00:55:49 |
Fischer, Stanley - Governor
EASY TO HIT. COUNTRIES HAVE FLIPPED ON THE DEFICIT ISSUE, THE UNITED STATES HAS FLIPPED FROM DEFICIT SS BEING WHAT DO YOU EXPECT. MORE RECENTLY CANADA...
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NOTE: The transcript for this program was compiled from uncorrected Closed Captioning.