| 00:00:02 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
JOURNAL SUMMER SERIES OF ELECTORAL POLITICS. ALL WEEK LONG WE HAVE BEEN LOOKING AT
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| 00:00:07 |
HOST, -
VARIOUS ISSUES WHEN IT COMES TO ELECTORAL POLITICS. ON MONDAY WE LOOKED AT THE 2010 HOUSE AND SENATE RACES. ON TUESDAY, WITH A DEAD POLITICAL ADVERTISEMENTS...
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| 00:01:06 |
GUEST, -
BUT THERE IS ALSO AN ART TO IT. THE ART INVOLVES QUESTIONS LIKE, "HOW DO YOU SELECT LIKELY VOTERS," "HOW YOU ANALYZE THE DATA," AND "WITH KIND OF QUESTIONS...
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| 00:01:42 |
HOST, -
GUEST: ALMOST ALL OF THE CAMPAIGNS ARE DOING EXTENSIVE POLLING, AND THEY WANT TO KNOW WHAT
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| 00:01:50 |
GUEST, -
THE ELECTORATE IS THINKING, WHAT THEIR CONCERNS ARE AND THEIR VIEWS ARE ON THE CANDIDATES. SO, THEY CAN HEAR THEIR MESSAGES TOWARD THE OPINIONS OF THE...
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| 00:02:09 |
HOST, -
WERE DOING POLLS, HOW SPECIFIC DID THEY GET? GUEST: VERY SPECIFIC IN DETERMINING THE STRENGTH AND WEAKNESSES OF THE CANDIDATES. THEY WANT TO KNOW HOW...
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| 00:02:21 |
GUEST, -
PERCEIVE OBAMA AND MCCAIN AS WELL AS HOW THEY PERCEIVE THE ISSUES. THEY'RE GETTING INTO SOME VERY SPECIFIC QUESTIONS. THEY WILL BE ASKING QUESTIONS...
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| 00:02:52 |
HOST, -
PUBLIC CALL AND THEY TALKED ABOUT PRESIDENT OBAMA'S RELIGION. THAT COMPARED 2009 TO 2010 AND FEWER PEOPLE CONSIDER HIM TO BE A CHRISTIAN TODAY THAN THEY...
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| 00:03:26 |
GUEST, -
BECOME MORE NEGATIVE OVER TIME. HIS APPROVAL RATING HAS DROPPED FROM THE MID-60'S WHEN THE FIRST TO OFFICE TO THE LOWER 40'S NOW. AND I THINK PEOPLE ARE...
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| 00:04:15 |
GUEST, -
THERE ARE POLES OF ALL SORTS THAT GOING -- AND GOING BACK TO THE 19TH CENTURY, BUT REALLY, WHAT WE
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| 00:04:21 |
GUEST, -
CONSIDER THE BIRTH OF THE MODERN PUBLIC OPINION POLL GOES BACK TO THE 1930'S WITH PEOPLE LIKE GEORGE GALLUP SENIOR, AL GORE ROPER -- THEY WERE THE ONES...
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| 00:06:37 |
HOST, -
PHONES -- MORE CELLPHONE SOMES THAN HOME PHONES, AND ARE YOU BRIDGE THAT? GUEST: I THINK I SAW SOMETHING REALLY WORTH 25% DO NOT HAVE HOME PHONES. THEY...
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| 00:06:59 |
GUEST, -
UNDER PEOPLE AND MINORITIES. -- YOUNGER PEOPLE AND MINORITIES. THAT PRESENTS A CHALLENGE BECAUSE YOU HAVE TO MAKE UP FOR IT SOMEHOW TO CORRECT THAT ...
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| 00:07:48 |
HOST, -
AND WE ARE LOOKING AT POLLING. THE NUMBERS HAVE BEEN ON THE SCREEN,/POLITICAL AFFILIATION. WE HAVE SET ASIDE A FOURTH LINE BECAUSE WE GET SO MANY PEOPLE...
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| 00:09:08 |
GUEST, -
ECONOMICALLY -- LARGELY REFLECTIVE OF THE ECONOMIC CONDITIONS WE ARE FACING. AND THAT DOES NOT MEAN WE ARE GOING TO SEE ANYTHING LIKE THAT PERCENTAGE...
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| 00:09:43 |
HOST, -
ABOUT 90% OF
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| 00:09:47 |
GUEST, -
THE HOUSE SEATS HAVE INCUMBENTS RUNNING IN THEM. IF WE WILL PROBABLY SEE ABOUT 90% OF THE INCUMBENTS REELECTED. WE'RE LIKELY TO SEE A MUCH LOWER RATE...
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| 00:10:09 |
HOST, -
PEOPLE POLLED SAID THEY WERE GOING TO VOTE FOR THE PARTY IN POWER, WHICH WAS THE DEMOCRATS. 47% PLANNED TO VOTE AGAINST THE PARTY IN POWER. NOW, COME...
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| 00:10:39 |
GUEST, -
AN ADVANTAGE ON THE SO-CALLED GENERIC BALLOT. THIS IS A QUESTION WHERE PEOPLE ARE ASKED, MORE LESS, IF THE ELECTION WERE HELD TODAY, WOULD YOU BE VOTING...
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| 00:11:28 |
HOST, -
THERE IS A CHART ON THE INSIDE AND IT SHOWS PRESIDENT OBAMA'S JOB APPROVAL RATING AMONG PEOPLE BORN IN 1981 OR LATER IS STILL HIGHER, BUT IT IS GOING...
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| 00:12:02 |
GUEST, -
DEMOCRATS. IT IS ALWAYS A QUESTION OF WHAT YOU ARE COMPARING THE CURRENT SITUATION TO. IN 2002, DEMOCRATS HAD THEIR BIGGEST ADVANTAGE IN PARTY AND VACATION...
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| 00:12:46 |
HOST, -
GUEST: HE WAS GOVERNOR OF KENTUCKY AND THEN HE WAS VICE- PRESIDENT UNDER TRUMAN. HE
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| 00:12:57 |
GUEST, -
DID NOT ACTUALLY GRADUATED FROM EMORY UNIVERSITY, BUT HE DID ATTEND. THAT IS WHERE IT COMES FROM. I'M PROUD TO HAVE THAT TITLE. HOST: WHAT IS HIS BEST...
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| 00:13:15 |
HOST, -
HOST: HE WAS UNDER FDR? GUEST:
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| 00:13:19 |
GUEST, -
I THINK HE WAS ONE OF THE LEADERS IN THE SENATE UNDER FDR.
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| 00:13:23 |
HOST, -
HOST: FIRST CALLS FOR
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| 00:13:27 |
GUEST, -
ALAN ABRAMOWITZ, GOOD MORNING. CALLER: I WAS CALLING
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| 00:13:33 |
HOST, -
TO GET YOUR TAKE ON THE LAM LINE AND CELLPHONE DEAL, BUT YOU GUYS GOT
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| 00:13:39 |
CALLER, -
ME ON THAT ONE. SO, I HAVE ANOTHER QUESTION ABOUT WHAT YOU THINK ABOUT THE WAY THEY HANDLED THE LAST ELECTIONS WHERE THE MEDIA HAD MADE A GRAVE ERROR...
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| 00:14:05 |
GUEST, -
THE MARK ON WHERE THEY WERE SUPPOSED
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| 00:14:10 |
CALLER, -
TO BE AS THE TURN OUT. GUEST: ACTUALLY, IF YOU LOOK AT THE POLLS LEADING UP TO THE 2008 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, ON THE
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| 00:14:20 |
GUEST, -
WHOLE, THE POLLS WERE PRETTY ACCURATE. IN OTHER WORDS, ALMOST ALL THE POLLS SHOWED OBAMA LEADING. THE MARGIN VARIED OF IT, AS YOU WOULD EXPECT, BUT THE...
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| 00:15:19 |
HOST, -
CALLER: C-SPAN IS JUST GETTING BETTER AND BETTER, INCLUDING NEW. KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK.
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| 00:15:26 |
CALLER, -
IT WAS AN AUTOMATIC POLL, BUT FAIRLY EXTENSIVE. ABOUT THE SENATORIAL CANDIDATES ON BOTH. HOST: JIM, YOU CALLED IT AN AUTOMATIC CALL IT? CALLER: YES.
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| 00:15:47 |
HOST, -
BUT IT WHEN BROADER THAN THAT AND WAS MORE EXTENSIVE
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| 00:15:50 |
CALLER, -
THAN I WOULD HAVE EXPECTED. WE HAVE A POSTER FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF NEW HAMPSHIRE COME TO OUR TOWN RECENTLY AND GIVE AN ENTERTAINING HISTORY OF THE...
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| 00:16:22 |
GUEST, -
IT IS A RECORDED VOICE AND YOUR ANSWER ARE PUSHING BUTTONS ON YOUR PHONE. RASMUSSEN IS PROBABLY THE BEST KNOWN FOR ORGANIZATION THAT USES THE TECHNIQUE,...
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| 00:17:54 |
HOST, -
YOU DO NOT EVEN HAVE A CALL CENTER.
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| 00:17:58 |
GUEST, -
MOST OF THESE WILL NOT CALL ITSELF PHONES. THEY ARE TRYING TO COMPENSATE FOR THAT BY WAITING BARRETT SAMPLES BY TRYING TO -- BY WEIGHTING THEIR SAMPLES...
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| 00:18:51 |
HOST, -
USA TODAY GALLOP. WHAT WOULD THAT COST? GUEST: THE GALLUP POLL IS STILL USING LIVE INTERVIEWERS.
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| 00:19:03 |
GUEST, -
THOSE COSTS ARE BEING DISTRIBUTED ACROSS ALL OF THE POLLS. IF YOU WANTED TO HAVE A POLL DONE AND YOU'RE GOING TO COMMISSION A POLLING ORGANIZATION TO...
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| 00:19:35 |
HOST, -
AND ACTUALLY, THEY ARE PULLING ALL ALONG. THE PARTY COMMITTEES DO POLLING. AND OF COURSE, THE
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| 00:19:42 |
GUEST, -
PRESIDENT HAS POLLING DONE FOR HIM RIGHT NOW. HOST: SYRACUSE, NEW YORK, RAY ON THE REPUBLICAN LINE. CALLER: GOOD MORNING. C-SPAN ROCKS, AND THANK
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| 00:19:55 |
HOST, -
YOU. THE COMMENT
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| 00:19:58 |
CALLER, -
BY THE PROFESSOR NICELY ILLUSTRATES A POTENTIAL PROBLEM WITH PULLING ACCURACY. THE PROFESSOR CALLED FOR CLAIMED AS A FACT THAT OBAMA IS A CHRISTIAN....
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| 00:20:37 |
GUEST, -
HE HAS DESCRIBED HIMSELF AS A CHRISTIAN. HE HAS BEEN A MEMBER OF CHRISTIAN CHURCHES. HOST: AND FURTHER, HE HAS WRITTEN ABOUT IT. GUEST: ABSOLUTELY, THERE...
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| 00:20:51 |
HOST, -
I HAVE SEEN THAT HE IS ANYTHING OTHER THAN A CHRISTIAN. HOST: ID
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| 00:20:56 |
GUEST, -
IN RATING GAP, GA., HAS BEEN COLD. CALLER: I HAVE BEEN
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| 00:21:03 |
HOST, -
POLLED , I THINK, TWICE. ONE WAS WHAT YOU WERE TALKING ABOUT BEFORE.
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| 00:21:09 |
CALLER, -
HOST: DID YOU ANSWER IT? CALLER: I GOT MOST OF THE WAY THROUGH AND IT SEEMED TO ME THAT THE
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| 00:21:16 |
HOST, -
QUESTIONS WERE SOMEWHAT MISLEADING.
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| 00:21:19 |
CALLER, -
HOST: DID YOU HANG OUT AT THAT POINT? -- HANG UP AT THAT POINT?
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| 00:21:26 |
HOST, -
CALLER: UNFORTUNATELY, YES. HOST: BEFORE YOU GO ON, BUT ME ASK,
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| 00:21:34 |
CALLER, -
WOULD THAT ACCOUNT? GUEST: NOT CLEAR. GENERALLY, IF A PERSON
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| 00:21:39 |
HOST, -
HAS GONE THROUGH MOST OF THE INTERVIEW, THEY WILL STILL
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| 00:21:43 |
GUEST, -
USE THAT PART. IT IS NOT UNUSUAL FOR PEOPLE TO CUT OFF THE INTERVIEW JUST BECAUSE THEY DO NOT LIKE THE QUESTIONS OR HAVE TO GO DO SOMETHING ELSE. HOST:...
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| 00:22:02 |
HOST, -
SENATE RACES COMING UP IN GEORGIA. THIS WAS A FEW YEARS AGO.
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| 00:22:06 |
CALLER, -
THIS ONE STARTED OFF AS VERY BIPARTISAN, BUT THEN AS I STARTED TO GET A LITTLE MORE INTO IT IT WAS ALMOST LIKE, DO YOU LIKE THE WIFE BEATER OR VIEW LIKE...
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| 00:22:44 |
GUEST, -
AT ALL. VERY FORM OF POLITICAL ADVERTISING OR CAMPAIGN PERSUASION -- THEY ARE A FORM OF POLITICAL ADVERTISING OR CAMPAIGN PERSUASION THAT IS DISGUISED...
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| 00:23:31 |
HOST, -
SAY -- THE INCUMBENT PRESIDENT, DO THEY HAVE TO SAY, THIS IS GALLUP AND WE HAVE BEEN HIRED BY PRESIDENT EX TO DO A POLL? GUEST: GENERALLY, THEY WILL...
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| 00:23:50 |
GUEST, -
THEIR WAY TO TRY TO CONCEAL THAT. THEY DO NOT WANT TO TELL YOU WHO THEY'RE WORKING FOR BECAUSE, OF COURSE, THAT COULD BUY AS THE RESULTS. IF YOU KNOW...
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| 00:24:33 |
HOST, -
REPRESENTATION -- YOUR REPUTATION PRECEDES YOU.
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| 00:24:37 |
CALLER, -
GUEST: THANK YOU. CALLER: I HAVE TWO QUESTIONS. THE FIRST IS ABOUT
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| 00:24:44 |
GUEST, -
MY HOME STATE SENATOR A RACE IN TERMS OF POLLING. --
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| 00:24:49 |
CALLER, -
SENATORIAL RACE IN TERMS OF POLLING. IFIT SEEMS LIKE EACH POLLING ORGANIZATION IS GIVING AN EDGE TO EACH CANDIDATE. IS THIS INDICATIVE OF A CLOSE RACE...
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| 00:25:49 |
GUEST, -
HOST: WHERE DID YOU GROW UP?
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| 00:25:51 |
CALLER, -
CALLER: PHILADELPHIA.
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| 00:25:56 |
HOST, -
GUEST: THAT IS CERTAINLY
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| 00:25:59 |
CALLER, -
ONE OF THE MORE COMPETITIVE RACES THIS YEAR. THERE ARE QUITE A FEW SEATS IN PLAY. IS IT DEMOCRATIC
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| 00:26:05 |
GUEST, -
SEAT SINCE ARLEN SPECTER, THE PREVIOUS INCUMBENT, HAD SWITCHED PARTIES. IT IS ONE THAT REPUBLICANS ARE HOPING TO PICK UP. IT IS NOT SURPRISING TO HAVE...
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| 00:27:01 |
HOST, -
QUESTIONS AND I WAS NOT WRITING IT DOWN. LET'S MOVE ON. NEXT CALLER FROM TEXAS. CALLER: THE MAN THAT CALLED EARLIER, HE HAS NO RIGHT TO ASK WHAT PRESIDENT
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| 00:27:16 |
CALLER, -
OBAMA'S RELIGION IS. HE IS NOT A JUDGE. HOST: YOU SAID YOU HAVE BEEN COLD? TELL US YOUR EXPERIENCE. -- YOU HAVE
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| 00:27:27 |
HOST, -
BEEN POLLED? TELL US YOUR EXPERIENCE. CALLER: HE IS NO EXAMPLE OF A CHRISTIAN EITHER. HOST: I'M GOING TO GIVE
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| 00:27:41 |
CALLER, -
YOU ONE MORE CHANCE. LET'S STAY ON TOPIC.
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| 00:27:47 |
HOST, -
CALLER: I WOULD NOT VOTE REPUBLICAN FOR THE WORLD.
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| 00:27:55 |
CALLER, -
HOST: HOW DID YOU KNOW IT WAS A REPUBLICAN POLL. IF THE CALLER: DOES ALL THE QUESTIONS WERE LEADING IN THAT --
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| 00:28:06 |
HOST, -
CALLER: BECAUSE ALL THE QUESTIONS WERE LEADING IN THAT DIRECTION. HOST: WHAT DID YOU TELL HIM? CALLER: NO, NO. AND THE WORST PART IS
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| 00:28:16 |
HOST, -
THAT THEY GO UNDER THE GUISE OF CHRIST.
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| 00:28:20 |
CALLER, -
HOST: SHE SAID THAT SHE USED TO BE REPUBLICAN COULD THAT HAVE BEEN WHY SHE WAS ON THE LIST? GUEST:
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| 00:28:32 |
HOST, -
IT COULD BE , NOT SO MUCH FOR CALLING, BUT TO MOBILIZE THEIR VOTERS.
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| 00:28:40 |
GUEST, -
TO TURN PEOPLE OUT ON ELECTION DAY, THEY WILL BE CONTACTING THEIR PEOPLE. IN GEORGIA, FOR EXAMPLE, THEY GO BY THEIR PRIMARY VOTING HISTORY. IF YOU HAVE...
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| 00:29:18 |
HOST, -
THESE ARE THE NUMBERS FOR CONGRESS. TWO THINGS -- ARE THE SAME PEOPLE GOING TO BE CALLED? HOW DO THEY PICK THE PEOPLE THAT WILL BE CALLED? AND, WHEN...
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| 00:29:41 |
GUEST, -
HOUSE RACES. MY ATTITUDE TOWARD THESE THINGS, I TEND TO TRY TO FOLLOW THE AVERAGE BECAUSE THE POLLS WILL DOUSE AROUND QUITE A BIT. THERE IS QUITE A...
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| 00:30:56 |
HOST, -
LIKELY VOTERS ALL ALONG. ADULTS WILL START IN OCTOBER.
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| 00:31:00 |
GUEST, -
ONE WANTS TO BE PRIMARILY FOCUSED ON THE LIKELY VOTERS ONCE THAT INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE BECAUSE THEY CAN TEND TO RUN A FEW POINTS MORE REPUBLICAN IN...
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| 00:31:31 |
HOST, -
CALLER: THIS POLLING, I THINK IT HAS A TENDENCY TO INFLUENCE THE ELECTIONS. A LOT OF PEOPLE DO
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| 00:31:46 |
CALLER, -
NOT WATCH THE NEWS AND THEY WANT TO VOTE FOR A WINNER, SO THEY VOTE FOR WHOEVER IS DOING THE BEST. GUEST: THAT IS A GREAT QUESTION. IT IS SOMETHING THAT...
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| 00:32:01 |
GUEST, -
POLLING CAN THEMSELVES INFLUENCE PEOPLE'S OPINIONS. HOWEVER, THERE'S A LOT OF STUDY ABOUT THIS AND THERE IS VERY LITTLE EVIDENCE THAT POLLS ACTUALLY...
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| 00:32:52 |
HOST, -
WOULD SHE BE INEFFECTIVE PRESIDENT, 26% SAID YES. THE 59% SAID SHE WOULD BE AN EFFECTIVE PRESIDENT. WHEN YOU SEE THAT, WITH THAT HURT HER FUND RAISING....
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| 00:33:17 |
GUEST, -
YOU FIND THAT GENERALLY, REPUBLICANS TEND TO HAVE A VERY FAVORABLE OPINION OF HER AND BY LARGE, DEMOCRATS HAVE A PRETTY UNFAVORABLE OPINION OF HER. BUT...
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| 00:34:02 |
HOST, -
CALLER: I WAS JUST LAUGHING ABOUT THE LAST COMMENT ABOUT THE SARAH PALIN. MY QUESTION IS JUST
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| 00:34:09 |
CALLER, -
ABOUT POLLING. I WILL NOT EVEN WEIGH IN ON THE SARAH PALIN SUBJECT BECAUSE I THINK THAT IS ALL MANUFACTURED. I GO INTO THE SURVEY METHODOLOGY OF EACH...
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| 00:35:10 |
HOST, -
A PRETTY BIG NUMBER OF THIS POINT. MOST PEOPLE DO 100 IN A STATEWIDE POLL.
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| 00:35:16 |
GUEST, -
BUT ACTUALLY, YOU CAN GET A PRETTY ACCURATE PORTRAIT OF THE OPINIONS OF THE ELECTORATE. THE WHOLE BASIS OF PUBLIC OPINION POLLING IS GAMBLING. . -- SAMPLE...
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| 00:36:18 |
HOST, -
WEBSITE REALCLEARPOLITICS.COM? GUEST: YES, I DO. THERE ARE A COUPLE
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| 00:36:29 |
GUEST, -
OF GOOD WEBSITES. THAT IS ONE. ANOTHER ONE IS POLLSTER.COM. THEY ACTUALLY HAVE GRAPHS WHERE THEY WILL SHOW THE TREND IN THE STATE SENATE RACES AND THE...
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| 00:37:14 |
HOST, -
CALLER: I HAVE ONE THE OTHER DAY AND THE QUESTIONS THEY WERE ASKING LEADING QUESTIONS. THEN I ASKED
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| 00:37:26 |
CALLER, -
HER IF SHE WAS -- [UNINTELLIGIBLE] I TOLD HER I DID NOT LIKE THESE TYPE OF POLLS BECAUSE THEY ARE TRYING TO LEAVE ME INTO SOMETHING I'M GOING TO SAVE....
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| 00:38:13 |
GUEST, -
IT IS KIND OF UNUSUAL IN A POLL THAT THEY WOULD NOT IDENTIFY THE PARTY OF THE CANDIDATES BECAUSE POLLING ORGANIZATIONS KNOW THAT PARTY IS A VERY IMPORTANT...
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| 00:38:52 |
HOST, -
GUEST: THIS IS DONE ACROSS THE COUNTRY WHERE THEY ASK PEOPLE TO FILL OUT A QUESTIONNAIRE
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| 00:39:08 |
GUEST, -
INDICATING HOW THEY VOTED. THE PROBLEM IS THAT PEOPLE ASSUME THAT BECAUSE OF PEOPLE FILL THESE OUT THAT THEY WOULD EXPECT THE RESULTS TO BE PERFECTLY...
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| 00:39:54 |
HOST, -
WHAT ARE YOU TEACHING THIS SEMESTER? GUEST: PRODUCTION TO AMERICAN POLITICS AND AMERICAN ELECTIONS AND VOTING BEHAVIOR. HOST: THANK YOU FOR
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| 00:40:04 |
GUEST, -
BEING WITH US. HE IS IN TOWN FOR THE AMERICAN POLITICAL SCIENCE ASSOCIATION'S ANNUAL MEETING.
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| 00:40:10 |
HOST, -
IN FACT, C-SPAN HAS BEEN COVERING A LOT OF THEIR EVENTS. TONIGHT, IF YOU HAVE NOT GOTTEN ENOUGH POLITICS, TONIGHT ON C- SPAN IS THE NIGHT TO WATCH POLITICS...
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NOTE: The transcript for this program was compiled from uncorrected Closed Captioning.