| 00:00:12 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
THIS MEETING WILL COME TO ORDER. WILLA CATHER ONCE WROTE RNL AND ART SPRING FROM THE SATE ROOM AND ARE CLOSE KIN. ECONOMICS IN ART ARE STRANGERS. DESPITE...
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| 00:00:45 |
Baucus, Max - U.S. Senator, [D] Montana
ART. WE CONTINUE THE EXAMINATION OF ECONOMIC STIMULUS AND CONSIDER WHETHER WE CAN FIND ANY ARTFUL SOLUTIONS FOR THE AMERICAN ECONOMY. TUESDAY WE...
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| 00:05:19 |
Feldstein, Martin S. - Chairman
TESTIMONY. AND THEN TURN TO SOME OF THE MORE SPECIFIC POINTS. FIRST, I THINK IT'S GENERALLY AGREED THAT THE ECONOMY IS WEAK AND THAT IT COULD GET...
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| 00:10:40 |
Baucus, Max - U.S. Senator, [D] Montana
WHO PAID TAXES PLUS AN INCREASED CASH TRANSFER TO LOW-INCOME GROUPS WHO ARE NOT TAXPAYERS, DONE BY
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| 00:10:49 |
Feldstein, Martin S. - Chairman
INCREASING FEDERAL GOVERNMENT PAYMENT FOR FOOD STAMP, AND OR FOR SUPPLEMENTAL SECURITY INCOME, WHERE THE CHOICE AMONG THOSE WOULD DEPEND ON WHAT YOU...
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| 00:14:35 |
Baucus, Max - U.S. Senator, [D] Montana
YOUR COMMITTEE IS GOING TO BE PLAYING A MAJOR ROLE IN DESIGNING THE FISCAL STIMULUS LEGISLATION. TUESDAYS CUT IN THE FEDERAL
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| 00:14:43 |
Furman, Jason - Senior Fellow and Director
FUNDS RATE WILL HAVE A MAJOR EFFECT ON OUTPUT AND JOBS, BUT
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| 00:14:48 |
Baucus, Max - U.S. Senator, [D] Montana
GIVEN THE HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE OF MONETARY POLICY
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| 00:14:51 |
Furman, Jason - Senior Fellow and Director
WE PROBABLY WON'T SEE THE FULL IMPACT ON THE AGO REGATE ECONOMY UNTIL 2009. SO WE DESIGNED STIMULUS HAS AN IMPORTANT ROLE TO PLAY. A SET OF ECONOMISTS...
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| 00:22:11 |
Baucus, Max - U.S. Senator, [D] Montana
A TAXPAYERS. IT IS BASED ON TAXABLE INCOME. THERE'S NO PROVISION, AS I UNDERSTAND IT, THE ANNOUNCEMENT HAS NOTE BEEN MADE, BUT IT AMOUNTS TO LOWER-INCOME...
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| 00:23:39 |
Feldstein, Martin S. - Chairman
COLLEAGUE'S TESTIMONY IS THAT THE CASE THAT IS PUT FRARD FOR DOING A REFUNDABLE RATHER
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| 00:23:46 |
Baucus, Max - U.S. Senator, [D] Montana
THAN GIVING IT JUST TO THOSE WHO PAY
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| 00:23:50 |
Feldstein, Martin S. - Chairman
TAXES AMOUNTS TO A DIFFERENCE THAT I WOULD SAY THE ASK WITHIN THE MEASUREMENT ERROR THAT -- >> NEGLIGIBLE? >> THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN WHAT HE CALLS AN...
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| 00:24:21 |
Baucus, Max - U.S. Senator, [D] Montana
SPENT. WE HEAR THAT GETTING
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| 00:24:23 |
Feldstein, Martin S. - Chairman
THE CHECKS OUT WILL TAKE A MATTER OF MONTHS, SURPRISINGLY. INDIVIDUALS WITH HIGHER INCOME, CREDIT CARDS, WITH SOME CASH IN THE BANK MAY SAY WELL, OUR...
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| 00:25:33 |
Baucus, Max - U.S. Senator, [D] Montana
STRONGER, IN FACT, A LOT STRONGER THAN
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| 00:25:35 |
Furman, Jason - Senior Fellow and Director
THE WAY DR. FELLEDSTEIN CHARACTERIZED, THE OFFICE SAID MAKING THE REBAIT WOULD FURTHER BOOST THE COST EFFECTIVENESS OF THE STIMULUS. CHAIRMAN BERNANKE...
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| 00:26:50 |
Baucus, Max - U.S. Senator, [D] Montana
GET INTO THAT NOW. SENATOR KYLE? >> THANK YOU VERY MUCH. MR. FELLEDSTEEN, TWO THINGS FROM YOUR TESTIMONY, I WANT TO MAKE SURE I UNDERSTAND. WITH REGARD...
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| 00:27:17 |
Kyl, Jon - U.S. Senator, [R] Arizona
SLOW, COMPLEX PROCESS SO WOULD FEDERAL SPENDING ON INFRASTRUCTURE. THESE WOULD WEAKEN THE SIZE OF THE FEDERAL STIMULUS PROCESS SO I GATHER YOU ARE...
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| 00:27:51 |
Feldstein, Martin S. - Chairman
REDUCE POVERTY, ALL THOUGH THOSE ARE WORTHWHILE, I'M SURE YOU WOULD AGREE. IT SHOULD NOT BE
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| 00:27:57 |
Kyl, Jon - U.S. Senator, [R] Arizona
TAKEN AS A OCCASION TO REDISTRIBUTE THE BURDEN OF TAXES. THAT LEADS ME TO FAVOR A TAX REBAIT TO ALL WHO PAY TAXES PLUS A CASH TRANSFER TO GROUPS...
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| 00:28:33 |
Feldstein, Martin S. - Chairman
IS PART OF THE REASON FOR THAT,
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| 00:28:35 |
Kyl, Jon - U.S. Senator, [R] Arizona
AND I'LL ADDRESS THIS QUESTION TO YOU AS WELL, AND THERE ARE A LOT OF DIFFERENT WAYS TO ASK THE QUESTION, BUT LET ME FRAME IT AS I UNDERSTAND FISCAL...
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| 00:28:51 |
Feldstein, Martin S. - Chairman
TO SPEND. IT'S
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| 00:28:53 |
Kyl, Jon - U.S. Senator, [R] Arizona
BECAUSE THERE IS MONEY AVAILABLE FOR INVESTMENT, AND THEREFORE, IT REALLY DOESN'T MAKE MUCH DIFFERENCE, DOES IT, WHETHER ONE BUYS SOMETHING, SPENDS...
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| 00:29:56 |
Feldstein, Martin S. - Chairman
THE ECONOMY TO A HIGHER LEVEL OF ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, GET US OUT OF THE RECESSION IF WE ARE SLIDING INTO ONE. >> AND IT TAKES MONEY TO CREATE JOBS. ...
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| 00:30:09 |
Kyl, Jon - U.S. Senator, [R] Arizona
AND SERVICES TO
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| 00:30:11 |
Feldstein, Martin S. - Chairman
CREATE PRODUCTION AND EMPLOYMENT. SO IT'S -- IN THE
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| 00:30:15 |
Kyl, Jon - U.S. Senator, [R] Arizona
LONG RUN THERE'S NO QUESTION,
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| 00:30:17 |
Feldstein, Martin S. - Chairman
WE NEED MORE INVESTMENT. WE NEED BETTER INCENTIVES. BUT WHAT WE ARE FOCUSING ON, WHAT I THINK THE LEGISLATION
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| 00:30:25 |
Kyl, Jon - U.S. Senator, [R] Arizona
SHOULD FOCUS ON IS
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| 00:30:28 |
Feldstein, Martin S. - Chairman
CREATING SPENDING. AND THE BEST WAY TO DO THAT IS TO GIVE PEOPLE BACK SOME OF THEIR TAX DOLLARS. >> OKAY. JUST BEFORE I CALL YOU, DR. FURMAN, MR....
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| 00:30:56 |
Kyl, Jon - U.S. Senator, [R] Arizona
PROPOSITION THAT THIS IS SIMPLY A DEMAND PROBLEM. EVERYWHERE I TURN ON THE FINANCE CHANNELS, WHAT I READ AND TALK ABOUT THE NEED FOR CAPITAL INVESTMENT,...
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| 00:31:49 |
Baucus, Max - U.S. Senator, [D] Montana
MONETARY POLICY IS MY POINT IT IS NOT REPRESENTED HERE. I HAVE A LITTLE BIT OF TIME LEFT. PLEASE COMMENT ON THAT. >> I WOULD SAY THERE ARE A LOT OF...
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| 00:31:58 |
Kyl, Jon - U.S. Senator, [R] Arizona
THAT ARE CONTROVERSIAL. THAT STIMULATING AGGREGATE DEMAND CAN RAISE ECONOMIC
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| 00:32:05 |
Kyl, Jon - U.S. Senator, [R] Arizona
GROWTH DURING A DOWNTOWN, IS SOMETHING 88% OF ECONOMISTS WOULD AGREE ON. THEY MIGHT DISAGREE OF WHAT ARE THE MOST COST
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| 00:32:16 |
Furman, Jason - Senior Fellow and Director
EFFECTIVE ELEMENT TO INCLUDE BUT 98% OF ECONOMISTS, WHEN THE ECONOMY IS TURNING DOWN BELIEVE IN THIS REMEDY BECAUSE ONE WAY TO PICTURE IT IS EMPTY...
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| 00:33:00 |
Baucus, Max - U.S. Senator, [D] Montana
INCOMES PERMANENTLY. ON THIS
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| 00:33:02 |
Wyden, Ronald "Ron" Lee - U.S. Senator, [D] Oregon
INFRASTRUCTURE ISSUE, SENATOR THUNE AND I INTRODUCED A PROPOSAL TO LET BUILD AMERICA BONDS. BUT AS WE LOOKED AT THE WHOLE ISSUE OF STIMULUS IT BECAME...
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| 00:34:46 |
Baucus, Max - U.S. Senator, [D] Montana
OTHER AREAS RELATED TO WHAT THE DR.
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| 00:34:49 |
Wyden, Ronald "Ron" Lee - U.S. Senator, [D] Oregon
TALKED ABOUT YESTERDAY. GIVE ME YOUR ASSESSMENT ABOUT WHETHER THAT MIGHT AT LEAST OPEN THE DOOR HERE TO THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME AREAS OF INFRASTRUCTURE,...
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| 00:35:38 |
Furman, Jason - Senior Fellow and Director
ARE SOME INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS THAT CAN BE IDENTIFIED, AND I HAVE LEARNED NEVER TO ARGUE WITH DR. ORZAG WHEN HE SAYS ANYTHING. SO IF ROAD SURFACING...
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| 00:36:22 |
Wyden, Ronald "Ron" Lee - U.S. Senator, [D] Oregon
THROUGH MORE? >> FIRST, WITH RESPECT TO THE REBATES, I THINK WE MIGHT FIND PEOPLE ARE SPENDING THOSE REBATES BEFORE THE CHECKS ARRIVE. I DON'T...
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| 00:36:45 |
Feldstein, Martin S. - Chairman
REAL RISK THAT WE WOULD START DOWN WHAT LOOKS LIKE A HELPFUL ROAD AND FOLKS WOULD SAY WHAT ABOUT MASS TRANSIT AND -- >> FAIR ENOUGH. >> SO I WORRY ABOUT...
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| 00:37:14 |
Wyden, Ronald "Ron" Lee - U.S. Senator, [D] Oregon
THIS IS TAKING A HUGE
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| 00:37:16 |
Feldstein, Martin S. - Chairman
TOLL BOTH IN TERMS OF SHORT
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| 00:37:18 |
Wyden, Ronald "Ron" Lee - U.S. Senator, [D] Oregon
AND LONG-TERM. GIVES YOUR ASSESSMENT OF HOW HEALTHCARE OUGHT TO BE APPROACHED, BOTH FROM THE STANDPOINT OF THE SHORT TERM STIMULUS AND THEN THE LISTENING...
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| 00:38:06 |
Furman, Jason - Senior Fellow and Director
LONGER TERM I THINK THIS IS A DEBATE TO LOOK AT
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| 00:38:10 |
Baucus, Max - U.S. Senator, [D] Montana
HOW WE
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| 00:38:11 |
Furman, Jason - Senior Fellow and Director
COULD PROTECT PEOPLE BETTER. IN AN ECONOMIC DOWNTURN YOU DON'T LOSE YOUR HEALTH INSURANCE WHEN YOU LOSE YOUR JOB, TO MAKING HEALTH INSURANCE PORTABLE,...
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| 00:38:54 |
Baucus, Max - U.S. Senator, [D] Montana
I WOULD WANT IT TO
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| 00:38:56 |
Bunning, Jim - U.S. Senator, [R] Kentucky
BE WANING HORSE. AND WHILE I WON'T SAY THAT A RACEHORSE RAISED IN WASHINGTON AND TRAINED ON THE WHITE HOUSE LAWN COULD EVER NOT WIN A RACE, I CERTAINLY...
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| 00:40:18 |
Bunning, Jim - U.S. Senator, [R] Kentucky
BY DESTROYING HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS IN PAPER WEALTH. IF WE WANT TO WIN THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC HORSERACE, WOULD IT NOT MAKE MORE SENSE TO INVEST THIS $150...
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| 00:41:23 |
Feldstein, Martin S. - Chairman
FOR WHICH THAT IS NOT THE ANSWER. >> IS POLITICS THE ANSWER, THEN? >>
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| 00:41:28 |
Feldstein, Martin S. - Chairman
I WOULD NOT HALT -- CALL IT POLITICS. THERE IS THIS MINING -- SURPRISING AMOUNT OF BIPARTISAN AGREEMENT AMONG PROFESSIONAL ECONOMISTS. THAT WHAT CAN REDUCE...
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| 00:41:47 |
Bunning, Jim - U.S. Senator, [R] Kentucky
IF THE ECONOMY STARTS TO SLIDE IS THE KIND OF
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| 00:41:50 |
Feldstein, Martin S. - Chairman
CLEAN BILL FISCAL STIMULUS PACKAGE THAT THE ADMINISTRATION AND THE MEMBERS OF THE HOUSE SEEMED TO BE TALKING ABOUT. >> I THINK TAX REFORM IS IN OUR COUNTRY'S...
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| 00:42:26 |
Furman, Jason - Senior Fellow and Director
THAT STIMULUS ROUTE IS DEVOTED TO A TEMPORARY -- TO TEMPORARILY INCREASE GROWTH BUT OVER THE LONG TERM, THE MOST IMPORTANT TASKS ARE THE TYPES OF LONG-TERM...
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| 00:43:03 |
Bunning, Jim - U.S. Senator, [R] Kentucky
BANKRUPTCY OR REPEALING THE 1986 TAX ON UNEMPLOYMENT PAYMENTS TO INCREASE THEIR PURCHASING POWER? >> I THINK PROVIDING SOME OF THAT IF THE NUMBER IS...
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| 00:43:37 |
Feldstein, Martin S. - Chairman
EARLIER IN THE DECADE. I WOULD NOT OPPOSE CHANGING THE LOSS CARRY BACK RULES. I THINK TAXING UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS IS IMPORTANT. IT WAS A REAL IMPROVEMENT...
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| 00:45:02 |
Baucus, Max - U.S. Senator, [D] Montana
OF THE PACKAGE, THE AGREEMENT IS A VERY POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT. FORT IT IS MOST
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| 00:45:08 |
Schumer, Charles E. - U.S. Senator, [D] New York
IMPORTANT TO MOVE A PACKAGE QUICKLY WITH AS ITS CENTERPIECE A TAX CUT FOR AVERAGE FAMILIES. THE REPORTED AGREEMENT IN THE HOUSE MEETS THAT TEST. I WANT...
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| 00:49:36 |
Furman, Jason - Senior Fellow and Director
COUNSELING MAY MAKE SENSE. I HAVE NOT THOUGHT ABOUT IT BEFORE. I DO NOT SEE ANY REASON WHY THAT WOULD BE A BAD THING. HOW WOULD BE DONE ADMINISTRATIVELY,...
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| 00:49:49 |
Feldstein, Martin S. - Chairman
INCREASING THE CONFORMING LOAN LIMITS, THE CURRENT LIMIT OF $417,000 DOES NOT BUY YOU A LOT OF HOUSING IN NEW YORK OR CALIFORNIA. NATIONALLY, THE AVERAGE...
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| 00:51:08 |
Schumer, Charles E. - U.S. Senator, [D] New York
NOT THINK THERE IS MUCH DISAGREEMENT IN ADDITION TO THE IMMEDIATE STIMULUS NOW THAT WE NEED SOMETHING MORE LONG TERM. >> THANK YOU FOR THIS HEARING ...
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| 00:51:41 |
Stabenow, Debbie - U.S. Senator, [D] Michigan
VERY INTERESTING. I WOULD AGREE WITH THAT. WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE LAST SEVEN YEARS OF FOCUS ON THE SUPPLY SIDE AS WE TALK ABOUT SUPPLY AND DEMAND ALL...
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| 00:55:42 |
Furman, Jason - Senior Fellow and Director
ELIGIBILITY LIMITS FOR THOSE PROGRAMS BUT WE HAVE NOT SEEN A SUBSTANTIAL MOVEMENT IN THAT DIRECTION. THIS TIME AROUND IF YOU WERE ABLE TO ACT EARLIER,...
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| 00:56:26 |
Stabenow, Debbie - U.S. Senator, [D] Michigan
ARE TAKING TO BE WITH US. THE ECONOMY FOR A NUMBER OF YEARS HAS BEEN RUNNING ALONG VERY WELL
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| 00:56:33 |
Baucus, Max - U.S. Senator, [D] Montana
AND WE HAVE SLOWED TO A JOG AND MAYBE WHAT WE WILL BE WALKING SOON AND HOPEFULLY WE WILL NOT STOP.
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| 00:56:41 |
Smith, Gordon H. - U.S. Senator, [R] Oregon
AS YOU LOOK AT THIS PACKAGE THAT WE ARE DEVELOPING, I SUPPOSE THE REASON FOR MY SUPPORT IS FUNDAMENTALLY AS ONE WHO REGISTERS ON THIS SIDE OF THE AISLE,...
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| 00:57:50 |
Feldstein, Martin S. - Chairman
SIGNIFICANT EASING OF MONETARY POLICY, WORKING TO OFFSET THAT. SO WE DO NOT KNOW HOW MUCH OF A FISCAL STIMULUS WE NEED. THAT IS ONE OF THE REASONS WHY...
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| 00:58:45 |
Smith, Gordon H. - U.S. Senator, [R] Oregon
AGREE. WE DO NOT KNOW THE PRECISE NUMBER FOR PACKAGE BUT GIVEN THE
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| 00:58:49 |
Furman, Jason - Senior Fellow and Director
LIMITED BAD DATA WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR, THE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE FUTURE AND THE LARGE AMOUNT OF FEDERAL RESERVE EASING THAT IS ALREADY IN THE SYSTEM, I...
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| 00:59:27 |
Smith, Gordon H. - U.S. Senator, [R] Oregon
RECESSION. IS IT TOO SOON TO PULL THE TRIGGER ON FMAP? >> AND HELP PREVENT A BAD SITUATION FROM GETTING WORSE. NOW YOU HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO GET AHEAD...
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| 00:59:54 |
Furman, Jason - Senior Fellow and Director
AND STATES ALREADY STARTING TO MAKE THEIR BUDGETARY DECISIONS UNDER THE BALANCED BUDGET RULES AND MEDICARE CUTS. >> HAVE THAT STATES ADDED TO
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| 01:00:04 |
Smith, Gordon H. - U.S. Senator, [R] Oregon
BASELINE BUDGET WITH TREMENDOUS AMOUNTS OF NEW SPENDING IN THE LAST SIX YEARS? >>
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| 01:00:09 |
Furman, Jason - Senior Fellow and Director
I AM NOT AN EXPERT ON WHAT IS GOING ON WITH STATE BUDGETS BUT THERE HAVE BEEN TAX CUTS OVER THAT PERIOD OF TIME. >> ANOTHER THING WE DID LAST TIME WE...
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| 01:00:23 |
Smith, Gordon H. - U.S. Senator, [R] Oregon
CUTTING TAXES AND LEAVING MORE MONEY IN THE ECONOMY THAN BRINGING IN TO THE BELTWAY, I WAS THE
|
| 01:00:31 |
Furman, Jason - Senior Fellow and Director
AUTHOR ABOUT REPATRIATION AS YOU GENTLEMEN KNOW. MANY OF THE COMPANIES THAT HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE 1980'S AND 1990'S NOW HAVE FOREIGN SUBSIDIARIES.
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| 01:00:40 |
Smith, Gordon H. - U.S. Senator, [R] Oregon
IN 2003, WE DID A REPATRIATION SO THAT THEY COULD BRING THOSE DOLLARS BACK AT 5 1/2% RATE. THAT PRODUCED CONSERVATIVELY AN INFUSION OF CASH INTO THOSE...
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| 01:02:00 |
Feldstein, Martin S. - Chairman
THE NOTION OF A ONE TIME CHANGE. AND AS YOU SAY, THIS IS NOT AN ADDITIONAL COST IN TERMS OF INCREASED PHYSICAL -- FISCAL DEFICITS. IT IS WORTH SAYING...
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| 01:03:20 |
Baucus, Max - U.S. Senator, [D] Montana
WOULD HE HAVE SUPPORTED THIS IDEA OF A STIMULUS PACKAGE? >> THE LAST THING YOU WANT TO DO IS TO TRY TO
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| 01:03:29 |
Smith, Gordon H. - U.S. Senator, [R] Oregon
TALK FOR MILTON FRIEDMAN. >> IT IS GREAT TO HAVE ONE OF THE GREAT ECONOMISTS HERE TRYING TO HELP US AND WE APPRECIATE YOUR
|
| 01:03:47 |
Feldstein, Martin S. - Chairman
HELP. THIS IDEA HAS NEVER BEEN PASSED THROUGH CONGRESS AND NEVER BEFORE ALTHOUGH THERE
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| 01:03:59 |
Hatch, Orrin - U.S. Senator, [R] Utah
HAVE BEEN SOME DISCUSSIONS ON TAX CUT TRIGGERS IN CONNECTION WITH MEETING DEFICITS. THE UC ANY DOWNSIDE RISK TO SUCH A PLAN IF WE WERE TO DO IT AND YOU...
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| 01:04:59 |
Feldstein, Martin S. - Chairman
WHAT DO YOU THINK OF THAT IDEA AND THE IDEA FOR A CONDITIONAL STIMULUS PACKAGE TRIGGERED BY A THREE MONTH DECLINE IN PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT AS THE TRIGGERING...
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| 01:05:18 |
Hatch, Orrin - U.S. Senator, [R] Utah
IT IS A GOOD IDEA. IF YOU LOOK BACK AT THE HISTORY OF BUSINESS CYCLES, IT WOULD HAVE DELIVERED VERY WELL TIMED STIMULUS IN MOST OF OUR PREVIOUS EXPERIENCES....
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| 01:05:33 |
Furman, Jason - Senior Fellow and Director
RAPIDLY ENOUGH THAT I WOULD AT LEAST MAKE THE FIRST RUN OF THIS STIMULUS UNCONDITIONAL AND AS FAST AS POSSIBLE. MAYBE TEAMING UP A SECOND ROUND A STIMULUS...
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| 01:06:15 |
Hatch, Orrin - U.S. Senator, [R] Utah
TAX REBATES WILL MOSTLY BE SAVED AND NOT SPENT. A TAX REBATE WOULD BE EFFECTIVE IN STIMULATING THE ECONOMY? >> THERE IS VERY THAT SAYS A ONE TIME REBATE...
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| 01:06:50 |
Feldstein, Martin S. - Chairman
PROBABLY END UP -- ENDED UP SPENDING $90 OUT OF THAT. MAYBE EVEN MORE. AT ONE TIME $500 REBATE IS, PROBABLY HALF OF THAT OR MORE THAN HALF WILL GET SPENT...
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| 01:07:44 |
Hatch, Orrin - U.S. Senator, [R] Utah
AVAILABLE FOR BUSINESSES? I AM NOT SURE I WOULD DO IT IN THE FORM OF BONE IS DEPRECIATION AS OPPOSED TO RAISING THE CAP ON THE AMOUNT THAT THEY CAN COMPLETELY...
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| 01:09:12 |
Baucus, Max - U.S. Senator, [D] Montana
AS WELL AS THE NOT SEPARATING CARRYING BACK AND DOCTOR OR IS
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| 01:09:19 |
Snowe, Olympia J. - U.S. Senator, [R] Maine
THAT -- ORSZAG INDICATED IT COULD HAVE A GOOD EFFECT. WOULD YOU AGREE WITH THAT IN TERMS OF THE SHORT-TERM AND HAVING AN IMPACT IN THAT RESPECT? >> I...
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| 01:10:02 |
Feldstein, Martin S. - Chairman
EXPERIENCED A LOSS BUT ARE NOT GOING TO BECOME BANKRUPT OR GO OUT OF BUSINESS. FOR THEM, IT IS PUTTING MORE MONEY IN THE BAY,
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| 01:10:13 |
Snowe, Olympia J. - U.S. Senator, [R] Maine
AT IMPROVING THE BALANCE SHEET, DOES NOT CHANGE THEIR
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| 01:10:17 |
Feldstein, Martin S. - Chairman
INCENTIVES WHILE THE BONUS DEPRECIATION SAYS IF YOU TRACK TOGETHER AND FIGURE OUT HOW YOU CAN DO SOME OF THAT INVESTMENT SPENDING THAT YOU OTHERWISE WERE...
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| 01:10:50 |
Snowe, Olympia J. - U.S. Senator, [R] Maine
AND ASK IRETON TO EXPLAIN, THAT IS NOT VERY HELPFUL. SOMETHING THAT SAYS YOU CAN NOW GET A MUCH LARGER ONE TIME COMPLETE RIGHT OFF, THEY CAN UNDERSTAND...
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| 01:11:06 |
Feldstein, Martin S. - Chairman
THE REPORT, YOU TALKED ABOUT THE NET EFFECT OF THE PAST REBATES AND I DO NOT KNOW IF IT WAS IN 2003 IN TERMS OF THE IMPACT IT WOULD HAVE ON GROWTH IN...
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| 01:11:23 |
Snowe, Olympia J. - U.S. Senator, [R] Maine
G.D.P. THAT WAS AT 1% WHICH
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| 01:11:29 |
Snowe, Olympia J. - U.S. Senator, [R] Maine
WAS WHAT $140 BILLION WOULD HAVE AN INCREASE, IS THAT RIGHT? >> THAT WOULD BE A 1% INCREASE IN ALLOWABLE. THERE IS A HIGHER INCREASE IN THE HIGHER GROWTH...
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| 01:11:57 |
Furman, Jason - Senior Fellow and Director
1 HAGGARD 40 BILLION FOR TAX REBATES? WOULD IT STILL HAVE THAT IMPACT OR HOW MUCH OF AN
|
| 01:12:05 |
Snowe, Olympia J. - U.S. Senator, [R] Maine
IMPACT WOULD IT HAVE ON GROWTH? >> $7 BILLION WOULD HAVE HALF THE IMPACT. -- 70 BILLION. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER THE BUSINESS TAX INCENTIVES HAVE AN IMPACT....
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| 01:12:31 |
Furman, Jason - Senior Fellow and Director
BUSINESSES ALWAYS SAY THAT. THEY SAY I DO THINGS FOR SOUND BUSINESS REASONS AND I AM NOT GOING BY MAYOR TAXES TO DO THINGS. CONFIDENCE IS VERY IMPORTANT....
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| 01:12:52 |
Feldstein, Martin S. - Chairman
IS TAKING IT SERIOUSLY, THE FED IS TAKING THIS SERIOUSLY, I THINK CAN BRING ABOUT AN INCREASE IN CONFIDENCE WHICH LEADS TO MORE SPENDING BY HOUSEHOLDS...
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| 01:13:29 |
Snowe, Olympia J. - U.S. Senator, [R] Maine
INCOME TAX THRESHOLD. IT DID NOT HAPPEN. BUT, IN THIS CASE, IT WAS MORE DIRECTED TO LOW-INCOME AND THE BALANCE OF THAT REBATE, IN YOUR OPINION, DOES IT...
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| 01:14:10 |
Furman, Jason - Senior Fellow and Director
WRITTEN TESTIMONY AND DR. FIRMAN WRITTEN TESTIMONY ARE THAT INSTEAD OF GETTING A $1 INCREASE IN THE GDP BY HAVING THIS BROADER DISTRIBUTION, THE BEST...
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| 01:14:29 |
Feldstein, Martin S. - Chairman
BIG DIFFERENCE AND DESPITE THIS STATISTICAL PRECISION THAT THE PUBLISHED ARTICLE THAT HE REFERRED TO TALKS ABOUT, I THINK THE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT IT IS...
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| 01:15:56 |
Snowe, Olympia J. - U.S. Senator, [R] Maine
I WOULD LIKE TO GO BACK TO AN EARLIER QUESTION. NAMELY, CASH TRANSFER PAYMENTS AND YOU THINK THAT SHOULD BE PART OF THE PACKAGE. AN EARLIER QUESTION...
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| 01:16:18 |
Baucus, Max - U.S. Senator, [D] Montana
THE GREATER OR DEEPER PROBLEM IN THE MARKET AND THE ECONOMY AND SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER BUT WHAT IS LOW AND THE HIGH? >> WE DO NOT KNOW HOW DEEP THE...
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| 01:16:51 |
Feldstein, Martin S. - Chairman
THE SITUATION IS LESS BAD THAN WE THINK, CONGRESS IS NOT EVER GOING TO UNDO THAT FISCAL STIMULUS IN THE WAY THE FED WOULD UNDO THEIR MONETARY STIMULUS....
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| 01:17:01 |
Baucus, Max - U.S. Senator, [D] Montana
SHOULD BE CASH TRANSFER PAYMENTS?
|
| 01:17:03 |
Feldstein, Martin S. - Chairman
WHAT PERCENT? >> I WOULD SAY ABOUT $100
|
| 01:17:08 |
Furman, Jason - Senior Fellow and Director
BILLION OF THAT TOTAL. >> 100 OUT OF 145? IN CASH? >> THIS IS TAX REBATE. >> I'M NOT TALKING AT REMAKE. >>
|
| 01:17:21 |
Baucus, Max - U.S. Senator, [D] Montana
FOOD STAMPS AND SSI. >> MAY BE ABOUT 20 BILLION. >> 20 OF 145? >>
|
| 01:17:27 |
Furman, Jason - Senior Fellow and Director
THAT IS IT DISTRIBUTION A CALL. IT IS A POLITICAL CALL. I DO
|
| 01:17:32 |
Baucus, Max - U.S. Senator, [D] Montana
NOT THINK AS AN ECONOMIST, THAT IS GOING TO MAKE
|
| 01:17:35 |
Furman, Jason - Senior Fellow and Director
A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE
|
| 01:17:37 |
Baucus, Max - U.S. Senator, [D] Montana
IN TERMS OF THE STIMULUS OF THIS. I THINK IT IS A DECISION
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| 01:17:42 |
Furman, Jason - Senior Fellow and Director
OF -- THAT
|
| 01:17:44 |
Baucus, Max - U.S. Senator, [D] Montana
WORKS ON A PER PERSON
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| 01:17:46 |
Baucus, Max - U.S. Senator, [D] Montana
BASIS FOR THE GROUPS OF PEOPLE YOU WILL REACH THROUGH TRANSFER PAYMENTS THAT YOU ARE NOT REACHING
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| 01:17:50 |
Feldstein, Martin S. - Chairman
THROUGH THE TAX REBATES. >> HE DID SAY THERE SHOULD BE SOME TRANSFER PAYMENTS. >> I THINK THERE SHOULD BE. FROM AN ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVE, I THINK MORE...
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| 01:18:13 |
Baucus, Max - U.S. Senator, [D] Montana
THAT THERE IS THAT MUCH OF A
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| 01:18:15 |
Feldstein, Martin S. - Chairman
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN WHAT YOU WILL GET IF YOU PUT $140 BILLION INTO ACROSS THE BOARD TAX REBATES AND WHAT IF YOU PUT $120 BILLION IN TAX REBATES AND $20...
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| 01:19:06 |
Baucus, Max - U.S. Senator, [D] Montana
THE SITUATION IN THE ECONOMY. THE ECONOMY IS PERFORMING REALLY
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| 01:19:11 |
Furman, Jason - Senior Fellow and Director
WELL AND 26 WEEKS MIGHT BE THE RIGHT PLACE TO STRIKE THAT BALANCE. IF THE ECONOMY IS PERFORMING LESS WELL, YOU WANT TO CHANGE THE PLACE THAT YOU STRIKE...
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| 01:20:45 |
Baucus, Max - U.S. Senator, [D] Montana
TRADITIONAL POLICY. THERE'S A LOT OF EVIDENCE THAT PEOPLE GET CLOSE TO THE 26 WEEK AND SUDDENLY THE JOB FIGHTING GOES UP PRETTY DRAMATICALLY. PEOPLE...
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| 01:21:02 |
Feldstein, Martin S. - Chairman
PERFECT JOB THAT THEY WERE HOLDING OUT FOR. >> WHAT ABOUT INCREASING THE AMOUNT? >> THE QUESTION IS COULD YOU INCREASE THE AMOUNT WITHOUT INCREASING --...
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| 01:21:25 |
Baucus, Max - U.S. Senator, [D] Montana
THE RATIO OF UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE BENEFITS
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| 01:21:30 |
Feldstein, Martin S. - Chairman
TO PAST WAGES. I WOULD TAKE UP THE CEILING. >> OK. >> IT HAS BEEN AN EXCELLENT HEARING AND I THINK YOU FOR. BOTH OF YOU HAVE MADE A NUMBER OF INTERESTING...
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| 01:21:55 |
Baucus, Max - U.S. Senator, [D] Montana
LARGELY SHARE IT THAT IS A REBATE PROGRAM IS PASSED, PEOPLE
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| 01:21:59 |
Wyden, Ronald "Ron" Lee - U.S. Senator, [D] Oregon
MIGHT ACTUALLY START SPENDING BEFORE THE CHECK ARRIVES. YOU CAN DEBATE THAT BUT I THINK YOU ARE ON SOLID GROUND THERE. I WANT TO RELATE THIS TO THE HEALTH-CARE...
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| 01:24:00 |
Furman, Jason - Senior Fellow and Director
ECONOMY, MAKING A MORE DYNAMIC, PEOPLE MORE ABLE TO SHIFT BETWEEN JOBS, HAVE THE TYPE OF SECURITY THEY NEED TO TAKE RISKS, AND A CERTAIN AMOUNT OF THAT...
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| 01:24:49 |
Wyden, Ronald "Ron" Lee - U.S. Senator, [D] Oregon
AND WHAT OUR GROUP IS TRYING TO DO IS SEE IF WE CAN MODERNIZE THAT RELATIONSHIP BY, HAVE A MORE PORTABLE PRODUCT, MORE CHOICES FOR WORKERS, AND GET SOME...
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| 01:25:43 |
Feldstein, Martin S. - Chairman
MARKETS, HOW SERIOUSLY THE MARKETS WILL RESPOND TO IT BUT IT CANNOT BE BAD NEWS FOR THE MARKETS. >> I AM GOING TO BE CONSULTING WITH BOTH OF YOU AND THE...
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| 01:26:11 |
Wyden, Ronald "Ron" Lee - U.S. Senator, [D] Oregon
QUESTION OF ENERGY POLICY AND SENATOR BAUCUS AND SENATOR GRASSLEY WORK ON OF A BIPARTISAN WAY BUT I HAVE BEEN PICKING UP THE PSYCHOLOGY. PEOPLE WANT...
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| 01:27:10 |
Baucus, Max - U.S. Senator, [D] Montana
MIGHANK YOU FOR YOUR TESTIMONY. >> SOMEONE WHO HAS BEEN AROUND LONG ENOUGH TO REMEMBER THE COUNTERCYCLICAL PROGRAM THAT PROVIDED ASSISTANCE IN 1981...
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| 01:27:38 |
Snowe, Olympia J. - U.S. Senator, [R] Maine
I AM INTRIGUED BY WHAT YOU'RE PROPOSING TO HAVE IN PLACE. >> I HAVE TO GO BACK AND LOOK AT THE EVIDENCE. 25 YEARS AGO I CANNOT REMEMBER. >> IT WAS PROVIDING...
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| 01:28:03 |
Feldstein, Martin S. - Chairman
BECAUSE THEIR BALANCED BUDGET REQUIREMENTS AND PROVIDING MORE LIQUIDITY. I WOULD BE INTERESTED BECAUSE I THINK IT IS
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| 01:28:09 |
Snowe, Olympia J. - U.S. Senator, [R] Maine
INTERESTING ABOUT WHAT COULD WE PUT IN PLACE THAT IS LIMITED AND TARGETED BUT HAS THE EFFECT OF MOVING QUICKLY WITHOUT HESITATION IF IT IS STRUCTURED...
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| 01:29:15 |
Feldstein, Martin S. - Chairman
FLOW, THE SOONER IT CAN START TO WORK TO EITHER PREVENT OR DAMPEN ECONOMIC DOWNTURN. >> THE SOONER THE BETTER AND THE MOTIVATION FOR THIS YEAR IS THE...
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| 01:29:46 |
Furman, Jason - Senior Fellow and Director
OF THIS YEAR. I AGREE THAT WE HAVE TALKED A LOT ABOUT CONFIDENCE AND SEEING SOMETHING HAPPENED THAT WAS EFFECTIVE AND QUICK. WOULD INSPIRE CONFIDENCE...
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| 01:30:29 |
Feldstein, Martin S. - Chairman
SO CLOGGED, BECAUSE OF THESE CONFIDENCE FACTORS, IT IS JUST NOT CLEAR THAT LOWER INTEREST RATES BY THE FED ARE GOING TO HAVE THE SAME KIND OF ATTRACTION...
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| 01:31:30 |
Furman, Jason - Senior Fellow and Director
THAT HAVE OR DO YOU THINK IT HAS ALREADY BEEN CALCULATED INTO THE EQUATION IN TERMS OF THE ECONOMIC SITUATION? >>
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| 01:31:38 |
Snowe, Olympia J. - U.S. Senator, [R] Maine
IT WILL BE A NEGATIVE. >> IT WILL BE A BIG JOLT. >> WERE THE PEOPLE CAN AFFORD PAY THOSE HIGHER INTEREST RATES, THAT WILL BE CASH OUT OF THEIR POCKETS....
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| 01:31:59 |
Feldstein, Martin S. - Chairman
SITUATION IS UNUSUAL BECAUSE HOUSE
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| 01:32:01 |
Snowe, Olympia J. - U.S. Senator, [R] Maine
PRICES NATIONALLY ARE DECLINING.
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| 01:32:03 |
Feldstein, Martin S. - Chairman
AND SO, THE TEMPTATION TO TAKE THE KEYS BACK TO THE BANK AND SAY, KEEP YOUR MORTGAGE -- MORTGAGE, KEEP THE HOUSE, I AM GOING TO GO BY MYSELF ANOTHER...
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| 01:32:42 |
Snowe, Olympia J. - U.S. Senator, [R] Maine
CLEARLY HAD A SALUTARY EFFECT. THE QUESTION IS THE DEGREE TO WHICH
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| 01:32:50 |
Baucus, Max - U.S. Senator, [D] Montana
WE PROCEED HERE IS SOMEONE INDEPENDENT OF THE MARKET. HOW DEEP ARE THE POTENTIAL ECONOMIC PROBLEMS OR HOW IMPORTANT IS IT TO HAVE A FISCAL STIMULUS HERE?...
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| 01:33:28 |
Feldstein, Martin S. - Chairman
I AGREE. THE FEDERAL RESERVE TO SOME DEGREE FACTORS THAT IN AND THAT IS BECAUSE THEY CAN MOVE IN AND MOVE VERY QUICKLY. WHAT THEY DID WITH LONG-TERM ...
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| 01:33:48 |
Furman, Jason - Senior Fellow and Director
ON THE REAL UNDERLYING ECONOMY, STATISTICS LIKE JOBS, THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, G.D.P., CONSUMER SPENDING, ALL OF WHICH WERE QUITE NEGATIVE IN DECEMBER...
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| 01:34:24 |
Baucus, Max - U.S. Senator, [D] Montana
TRILLION AND WITH NO CAP REQUIREMENTS AND THE MARGINAL PROFITS AND SO ON AND THE TOLL AMOUNT -- TOTAL AMOUNT OF CREDIT OF FAULT SAW -- SWAPS IS IN THE...
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| 01:35:08 |
Feldstein, Martin S. - Chairman
WITH IT WERE A LOW, THE SO- CALLED SIVS. THERE WAS A LOT OF TOKABOUT TALK ABOUT HOW THE BANKS TO CAPITALIZE, THERE WAS A NEED TO TAKE THESE OFF SHE BALANCE...
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| 01:36:23 |
Furman, Jason - Senior Fellow and Director
NO ONE KNOWS WHAT THE MAGNITUDE OF THOSE LOSSES ARE. >> THIS HAS BEEN A VERY CONSITRUCTIVE HEARING. A THANK-YOU TO BOTH OF YOU. WILL BE HOLDING A HEARING...
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| 01:36:48 |
Baucus, Max - U.S. Senator, [D] Montana
EARLIER TODAY, NANCY PELOSI AND JOHN VITTER ANNOUNCED A BIPARTISAN ECONOMIC STIMULUS PLAN FOR THE NATION. IT CALLS FOR A COMBINATION OF TAX REBATES,...
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NOTE: The transcript for this program was compiled from uncorrected Closed Captioning.