| 00:00:10 |
none, -
GOOD MORNING AND WELCOME TO THE 438 ELECTION WATCH. AN EXAGGERATION. WE HAVE BEEN DOING THIS SINCE 1982, THE LONGEST RUNNING ELECTIONS SERIES OF ITS KIND...
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| 00:00:43 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
WE HAVE FOUR EXPERTS TO TALK TO YOU TODAY ABOUT THE UPCOMING ELECTIONS. TO MY FAR LEFT IS JOHN, WHO WAS A RESEARCH FELLOW, AND HIS MESA -- AND WHOSE MOST...
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| 00:03:17 |
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ABOUT POLITICS FOR OVER ONE DECADE CARRIED HIS PROSE IS VIGOROUS, HIS ANALYSIS SOPHISTICATED. HE DESCRIBES THE CURRENT MOMENT FOR CONSERVATISM AS ONE...
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| 00:15:32 |
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RIGHT AROUND THIS TIME, A FEW WEEKS EARLIER, IN THREE OUT OF THE FOUR CASES, THERE WAS A GOOD CONTESTED DEMOCRATIC -- THERE WAS A CONTESTED NOMINATION....
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| 00:16:34 |
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I WILL LEAVE IT TO NORM AND MICHAEL. >> NORM WILL TALK ABOUT THE DEMOCRATS AND A LITTLE BIT ABOUT REPUBLICANS. >> AND WANT TO START -- HE DID MAKE AN...
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| 00:17:02 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
MAY GO OFF, I AM EXPECTING A CALL. THEY
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| 00:17:09 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
MAY COME FROM SEVERAL DIFFERENT PEOPLE. AS THE HANDOUT SUGGESTED, THE PUBLIC MOOD IS EXTRAORDINARILY SOUR. I WOULD SUMMON UP THAT IF WE HAD A REFERENDUM...
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| 00:30:10 |
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AN OVERWHELMING ADVANTAGE. IF THEY ARE CLOSE, THEY WILL BE ABLE TO DIVIDE THE DELEGATES AND EMERGE WITH A SIGNIFICANT FOOTHOLD. THE CONTEST COULD GO...
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| 00:33:44 |
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CANA CANDIDATE WILL NOT BE CHOSEN UNTIL THE CONVENTION? >> IT MOST LIKELY DOES MEAN THAT. THERE COULD BE SUPER-DELEGATES. IN THEORY, THEY COULD MAKE...
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| 00:34:11 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
AND AROUND AN INDIVIDUAL. YOU HAVE TO BE SKEPTICAL ABOUT THAT. I DO NOT THINK IT IS POSSIBLE OR EASY. IF YOU HAVE 5 CANDIDATES RELATIVELY CLOSE TOGETHER,...
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| 00:41:23 |
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MICHIGAN PEOPLE WHO ARE TRYING TO CREATE EIGHT NEW SYSTEM SO WE DO
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| 00:41:33 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
NOT HAVE THE TYRANNY OF IOWA TELLING THE ENTIRE COUNTRY WHO THEY CAN CHOOSE FROM. WE GET VERY DIFFERENT PICTURES IF WE LOOK AT THE RACE NATIONALLY....
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| 00:50:17 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
THE KENNETTSCANDIDATES HAVE NOT FLESHED OUT VERY
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| 00:50:23 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
WELL IN EITHER PARTY. I THINK THERE COULD BE AN IMPORTANT BATTLE OF IDEAS ON NEW TERRAIN THAT WE HAVE NOT SEEN BEFORE. >> I WANT TO GET TO THE QUESTION...
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| 00:50:55 |
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HAVE A QUICK ANNOUNCEMENT. I AM MOVING MY FAMILY TO IOWA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CAMPAIGN. WE ARE
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| 00:51:05 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
BOARDING RON PAUL' S BLIMP TOMORROW. I WILL ENROLL MY CHILDREN
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| 00:51:15 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
IN THE CHRISTMAS PAGEANT. THIS PAGEANT IS CONTROVERSIAL BECAUSE IT IS SPONSORED BY MIKE HUCKABEE AND IS A NOT SO THINLY VEILED ATTACK ON MITT ROMNEY....
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| 01:00:06 |
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MICROPHONE. TELL US WHO YOU ARE. >> I AM FROM "THE DENVER POST." IF BARACK OBAMA GETS THE NOMINATION, WOULD HE HAVE A HARDER TIME GETTING ELECTED PRESIDENT...
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| 01:00:35 |
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SAY THAT THE ISSUE OF RACE IS NOT GOING TO BE AS SIGNIFICANT AS THE ISSUE OF RELIGION WAS IN 1960. THAT IS OBVIOUSLY A GUESS BUT IT IS THERE FOR A COUPLE...
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| 01:00:57 |
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PUSHES RACE TO THE FOREFRONT. I DO NOT THINK THAT HE WILL. I MAY BE IN THE MINORITY. SOME BELIEVE OPRAH WAS A BIG THING FOR HIM. IT PUSHED HIM INTO A...
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| 01:04:13 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
CANDIDATES. THEY'RE ALL PULLING AT THEIR CANDIDATE LEVELS. >> DOUG WILDER IS ANOTHER EXAMPLE IN VIRGINIA. THAT WAS 1989. THAT WAS 19 YEARS AGO. IT IS...
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| 01:04:44 |
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I THINK MOST AMERICANS HAVE A FEELING THAT IT WOULD BE A GOOD THING IF AMERICA ELECTED A BLACK PRESIDENT. I FEEL THAT WAY MYSELF. I THINK THERE IS THAT...
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| 01:06:20 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
HOW MUCH OF THE MIKE HUCKABEE SURGE IS A FUNCTION OF THE EVANGELICAL BASE? HOW MUCH OF IT IS A FUNCTION OF THE FACT THAT HE SEEMS COMFORTABLE AND MORE...
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| 01:07:24 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
OF FACTORS THERE. WE WILL SEE HOW HE WORKS OUT AS PEOPLE LEARN MORE ABOUT HIM. HE CLEARLY HAD SOME UPSIDE WE DO NOT KNOW IF HE CAN BREAK OUT FROM THAT...
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| 01:08:10 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
THEY WOULD. RUDY GIULIANI IS IN A POSITION WHERE IF THE CONSERVATIVES SPLIT, IT WILL BE FAVORABLE TO HIM. SOME CONSERVATIVES ARE LOOKING AROUND. THEY...
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| 01:09:12 |
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FILLFIGURE OUT A PATCH FOR THE A.M.T. BILL. THERE COULD BE SOME DELAYS FOR PEOPLE. WILL THIS HAVE ANY
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| 01:09:25 |
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SORT OF IMPACT ON THE CONGRESSIONAL RACES OR THINGS OF THAT NATURE? >> I AM WRITING MY NEWS COLUMN ON THIS SUBJECT. WAIT FOR THE GENERAL ELECTION, BUT...
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| 01:09:53 |
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THEY ALSO DESPERATELY WANT TO CUT THE A.M.T. IN CERTAIN STATES. THEY ARE DESPERATE TO LOWER IT BECAUSE THOSE ARE DEMOCRATIC VOTERS THAT THEY ARE TAXING....
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| 01:10:47 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
STAGE IF CONGRESS ENACTS SOMETHING TO EASE THE A.M.T. IF THEY DO NOT, IT WILL BE A JOLT WHERE YOU GO THROUGH YOUR RETURN AND REALIZE YOU HAVE TO PAY SEVERAL...
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| 01:12:23 |
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THEIR POSITIONS ON REMEDIES. WILL WE SEE THAT? WHAT WILL IT LOOK LIKE? >> YOU HAVE AN ARGUMENT ABOUT TAXES BECAUSE OF THE PENDING EXPIRATION OF THE BUSH...
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| 01:12:52 |
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WILL WE TAX THE RICH PEOPLE MORE? IF WE ARE HEADED INTO A RECESSION, IS A TAX CHANGE SMART? WILL IT REVIVE THE ECONOMY? I DO NOT SEE EITHER PARTY PREPARED...
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| 01:14:25 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
ONCE EXISTED BETWEEN PUBLIC INDICATORS AND PUBLIC OPTIMISM ARE GONE. IT CAN BE DEFINED AS LOCALIZATION BROADLY. THE SAFETY NET THAT EXISTED IS NO LONGER...
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| 01:16:03 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
WHAT IS GOING ON IN CALIFORNIA TO BUY THEDIVIDE THE VOTE BY CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT? >>
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| 01:16:19 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
HE MENTIONED THOSE THAT DID NOT SPELL THEM OUT. >> WHY ARE YOU ASKING ABOUT NEVADA? >> [UNINTELLIGIBLE] >>
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| 01:16:28 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
THAT IS WHAT I THOUGHT. IT IS IMPORTANT. THE DEMOCRATS HAD HOPED THAT THEY COULD INJECT A STATE WITH MORE
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| 01:16:41 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
DIVERSITY EARLY ON.
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| 01:16:46 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
IT
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| 01:16:47 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
HAS BEEN AN ADVANTAGE TO HAVE THOSE
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| 01:16:51 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
TWO STATES AT THE FOREFRONT. THAT WAS THE REASON FOR THE NEVADA CAUCUS MOVING UP. ADDITIONALLY, IT WAS GOING TO BE BETWEEN IOWA AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. --...
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| 01:18:25 |
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CLINTON. SHE HAS BEEN DOING WELL AMONG THE FEMALE VOTERS. IT IS SOMETHING THAT I WOULD WATCH. >> WHAT ABOUT THIS CALIFORNIA INITIATIVE? I WAS NOT AWARE...
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| 01:18:52 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
IDEA IS TO SPLIT THE VOTING DISTRICTS
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| 01:18:57 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
INTO CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS. SOME OF THE EARLY SUPPORTERS WERE THOSE WHO SUPPORTED RUDY GIULIANI. IT WOULD HAVE AN ADVANTAGE FOR THE REPUBLICANS. THE...
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| 01:20:18 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
CHEAP SHOT
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| 01:20:20 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
AT A REPUBLICAN GRAB. A DEMOCRATIC STATE WILL NOT GO FOR THAT. >>
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| 01:20:28 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
THE FIRST SCENARIO IS THAT HILLARY CLINTON WILL WIN IN IOWA AND NEW HAMPSHIRE NBD JANUARY 9 NOMINEE. THE SECOND SCENARIO IS THAT BARACK OBAMA WINS IN...
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| 01:20:51 |
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IN THAT SCENARIO, JOHN EDWARDS WOULD STOP MAKING THE 15% THRESHOLD FOR DELEGATES AND IT GETS RESOLVED. THE THIRD SCENARIO IS IF JOHN EDWARDS WINS AND...
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| 01:22:04 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
HELPFUL TO THE REPUBLICANS? >> I THINK IT WILL PROBABLY HURT THEM. WE CANNOT BE SURE. THEY SEEM TO BE A PARTY THAT IS IN DISARRAY. YOU DO NOT HAVE AN...
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| 01:22:27 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
HANDLE A CRISIS, AT BORN POLICY, AND DEFENSE. THOSE THINGS WOULD TEND TO FAVOR A REPUBLICAN NOMINEE. I THINK THAT IS MORE DIFFICULT TO ESTABLISH WHEN...
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| 01:23:20 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
I THINK THEY WILL GET CAUGHT UP IN THE MIRE THAT MICHAEL MENTIONED. >> WE HAVE NOT HAD A MEANINGFUL CONVENTION SINCE 1952. SOME CONVENTIONS HAVE HAD...
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| 01:23:51 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
MCGOVERN. THEY FAILED. WE HAD IT WITH FORD AND REAGAN AND THE MISSISSIPPI DELEGATION IN 1976. THAT MEANT A DAY OR TWO OF INTEREST AND THEN IT WAS OVER...
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| 01:25:42 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
4-REAH FORD-REAGAN. I WANT TO REMIND YOU THAT OUR NEXT ELECTION WATCH
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| 01:25:52 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
IS JANUARY 24. I WANT TO THANK OUR PANEL. THANK YOU FOR
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| 01:25:59 |
Unidentified Speaker, -
COMING. [APPLAUSE] [UNINTELLIGIBLE] >> THE DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES HELD THEIR LAST DEBATE TODAY
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NOTE: The transcript for this program was compiled from uncorrected Closed Captioning.