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00:00:186 min.
The CHAIRMAN

This hearing of the Senate Foreign Relations

Committee is called to order.

The committee meets today to examine United States policy toward

Iran,...

00:06:335 sec.
Senator BIDEN

Thank you, Mr. Chairman.

I’d ask unanimous consent that my entire statement be placed in

the record, as if read.

00:06:38
The CHAIRMAN

It will be placed in the record in full.

00:06:381 min.
Senator BIDEN

And let me just say that, to state the obvious,

Iran’s failed to comply. This is a very important moment for a real

test for our diplomacy,...

00:08:0110 sec.
The CHAIRMAN

Thank you very much, Senator Biden.

We look now to you, Secretary Burns. Your full statement will

be made a part of the record. And please...

00:08:1117 min.
Mr. BURNS

Mr. Chairman, thank you very much for the invitation

to be with you. And Senator Biden, other members of the committee,

thank you very much...

00:25:384 min.
The CHAIRMAN

Well, thank you very much, Secretary Burns.

The Chair notes that we have good attendance, with perhaps

more coming; and, likewise, a distinguished...

00:30:004 min.
Mr. BURNS

Mr. Chairman, thank you. I think you’ve asked a

central question. What are the objectives of the Iranian Government?

What type of world...

00:34:1830 sec.
The CHAIRMAN

My time has concluded. I appreciate the thought

that all of us—people in public life and Americans—might become

much better informed about...

00:34:488 min.
Senator BIDEN

Thank you, Mr. Chairman.

Let me say, at the outset, I don’t have a question.

Nick, I’m more encouraged by what you said today than anything

I’ve...

00:43:05
The CHAIRMAN

Thank you very much, Senator Biden.

Senator Hagel.

00:43:056 min.
Senator HAGEL

Mr. Chairman, thank you. Secretary Burns, welcome.

I would like to follow along the comments of Chairman Lugar

and Senator Biden, Mr. Secretary,...

00:49:384 min.
Mr. BURNS

Thank you very much. Thanks, Senator Hagel.

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00:54:338 sec.
Senator HAGEL

Well, actually, you’ve not. If I—I know you wanted

to keep a tight rein on this, Mr. Chairman, but I asked the

question, Under what condition...

00:54:412 min.
Mr. BURNS

And I would answer that question, respectfully and

specifically, by saying, Mr. Chairman, we haven’t taken any option

off the table, but...

00:56:59
Senator HAGEL

Thank you.

00:56:5928 sec.
Senator BIDEN

I’d like to ask unanimous consent that—on this

point, that the testimony in response to a question by me when

Secretary Rice was here, in...

00:57:27
The CHAIRMAN

It will be made a part of the record.

[The information previously referred to follows:]

NOMINATION HEARING OF DR. CONDOLEEZZA RICE TO BE...

00:57:27
Senator BIDEN

Iran. Seymour Hersch wrote, in The New Yorker, that the ‘‘Hawks

in the Pentagon, in private discussions, have been urging a limited attack on...

00:57:27
Dr. RICE

The goal of the administration is to have a regime in Iran that is responsive

to concerns that we have about Iran’s policies, which are 180 degrees...

00:57:27
Senator BIDEN

One of the things that—if I can stick on the nuclear side of this

equation for a minute, one of the things that I’ve found—I may be mistaken,...

00:57:27
Dr. RICE

Well, it’s hard to—I really don’t want to speculate. I think it’s the kind

of thing that we’ve—we don’t know. I do think that we’re sending a...

00:57:27
Senator BIDEN

Well, we did——

00:57:27
Dr. RICE [continuing]

Whatever regime there is in——

00:57:27
Senator BIDEN [continuing]

That, and——

00:57:27
Dr. RICE [continuing]

Iran.

00:57:27
Senator BIDEN [continuing]

And you did it very successfully, along with our European

friends, who had initiated it, with regard to Qaddafi. But, as I said earlier,

there...

00:57:27
Dr. RICE

Well, we do have a number of other problems with Iran, not just the

nuclear problem. And I think that the future of Iranian relations—United States/

Iranian...

00:57:27
Senator BIDEN

I understand that. And I think you’ve given me a straightforward

answer, and I want to make sure I don’t misunderstand you. When I talk to our

European...

00:57:27
Dr. RICE

Well, I think we would have to say that the relationship with Iran has

more components than the nuclear side, but let’s see how far the Europeans...

00:57:27
Senator BIDEN

Well——

00:57:27
Dr. RICE [continuing]

Take a look at——

00:57:27
Senator BIDEN [continuing]

I appreciate——

00:57:27
Dr. RICE [continuing]

Where we are.

00:57:278 sec.
Senator BIDEN [continuing]

That. I would just suggest that we have a real relationship

with China, and their human-rights abuses are terrible. The watch group

looking...

00:57:35
The CHAIRMAN

Thank you, Senator Hagel.

Senator Feingold.

00:57:352 min.
Senator FEINGOLD

Thank you, Mr. Chairman, for holding this

very important hearing. And, Secretary Burns, as always, it’s good

to see you, and to listen to...

00:59:5649 sec.
Mr. BURNS

Senator, I’m happy to answer that question, if you’d

like me to.

The Indians—India was the first of the nonaligned countries to

vote...

01:00:45
Senator FEINGOLD

So, you just assume that the Prime Minister’s

words don’t mean what they say?

01:00:4545 sec.
Mr. BURNS

Well, you know, lots of countries have different relations

with Iran. Some of our best allies in NATO—the European

countries—have multibillion-dollar...

01:01:3037 sec.
Senator FEINGOLD

Well, I assume obtaining India’s support for

such sanctions would be one of our highest priorities with our relationship

with India, just...

01:02:07
Mr. BURNS

Yeah.

01:02:07
Senator FEINGOLD

If you could react to that.

01:02:0740 sec.
Mr. BURNS

There have been stories for the past year and a half

that that pipeline is under consideration. In our conversations with

the Pakistani...

01:02:47
Senator FEINGOLD

I’d appreciate——

01:02:47
Mr. BURNS [continuing]

It may be currently being discussed, but

I’m not sure there have been any significant agreements that

would, you know, put it into motion....

01:02:4721 sec.
Senator FEINGOLD

Appreciate that answer, look forward to the

written answer, Mr. Secretary.

Can you give me an update on the administration’s democracy

promotion...

01:03:0857 sec.
Mr. BURNS

Senator, we’re grateful for the funding by the Congress

for our democracy programs. Our democracy programs have

no other purpose than to...

01:04:05
Senator FEINGOLD

How effective——

01:04:05
Mr. BURNS [continuing]

North America——

01:04:055 sec.
Senator FEINGOLD [continuing]

Is this being, though? You know,

I understand that the intentions probably were equally appropriate

with regard to Iraq, but there are serious...

01:04:10
Mr. BURNS

I think it’s——

01:04:10
Senator FEINGOLD [continuing]

It working?

01:04:1020 sec.
Mr. BURNS

To be honest, I think it’s too early to answer that

question. You’ve—you asked a good question, because you gave us

VerDate 11-MAY-2000...

01:04:30
Senator FEINGOLD

Are we taking——

01:04:30
Mr. BURNS [continuing]

Starting those efforts over the last——

01:04:305 sec.
Senator FEINGOLD [continuing]

Into account lessons——

01:04:35
Mr. BURNS [continuing]

Couple of——

01:04:35
Senator FEINGOLD [continuing]

Learned from problems with this

kind of attempt in Iraq?

01:04:3540 sec.
Mr. BURNS

In everything we do, we try to learn from past experience.

We try to be good at what we do, and effective. And, obviously,

if we—if there...

01:05:1525 sec.
Senator FEINGOLD

I thank you for all of that, and I just want

to say—obviously, of course, you always want to be mindful of lessons

learned, but the Iraq...

01:05:4045 sec.
Mr. BURNS

I just wanted to say, I think we have an obligation

to come forward, maybe after a few more months have passed, and

give you an accounting...

01:06:25
Senator FEINGOLD

I strongly agree with you on that point, and

I thank you, Mr. Secretary.

Thank you, Mr. Chairman.

01:06:255 sec.
The CHAIRMAN

Thank you very much, Senator Feingold.

Senator Allen.

01:06:305 min.
Senator ALLEN

Thank you, Mr. Chairman.

This is obviously a very good time to hold this hearing, as the

United Nations, at the same podium, will hear from...

01:11:523 min.
Mr. BURNS

Senator Allen, thank you very much. And may I just

take this moment—forgive me for doing it—by thanking all of you

for your support for...

01:15:08
Senator ALLEN

Thank you, Secretary Burns.

01:15:08
Mr. BURNS

Thank you, Senator.

01:15:08
Senator ALLEN

Appreciate your great leadership, knowledge,

and experience.

01:15:08
Mr. BURNS

Thank you.

01:15:08
The CHAIRMAN

Thank you, Senator Allen.

01:15:087 sec.
Senator Voinovich

01:15:152 min.
Senator VOINOVICH

Mr. Chairman, thank you for having this

meeting today. And welcome, Secretary Burns.

First of all, I congratulate the administration on...

01:18:0840 sec.
Mr. BURNS

Senator Voinovich, thank you.

I think you’re right to start with President Ahmadinejad. He’s

addressing the U.N. General Assembly later...

01:18:4817 sec.
Senator VOINOVICH

What about the Sunnis and their relationship

toward Iran? Are the Sunnis concerned about Iran’s policies

and their President?

01:19:0515 sec.
Mr. BURNS

Senator, I—I’m not in a position to speak for each

of the Arab governments, but I can say, in general, there is a great

deal of concern—in...

01:19:20
Senator VOINOVICH

Are the Sunni countries helping us on this

issue?

01:19:2045 sec.
Mr. BURNS [continuing]

The Iranian Government. In many

ways, yes. In many ways, yes.

And you asked a very important question about the coalition that

we...

01:20:0540 sec.
Senator VOINOVICH

Will they support sanctions that are significant

enough to have an impact on the citizens of Iran so that people

would start to question...

01:20:4526 sec.
Mr. BURNS

Right. I believe that the coalition against Iran will

stay together. And, should the Iranians, within the next week or

so, not suspend—agree...

01:21:11
Senator VOINOVICH

You’re confident that the sanctions really

will make a difference?

01:21:1138 sec.
Mr. BURNS

That’s a different question. We hope the sanctions

will make a difference. The agreement we have in the Perm-5,

among all the countries,...

01:21:49
Senator VOINOVICH

You’re hopeful, but you’re not confident.

01:21:4958 sec.
Mr. BURNS

I can’t—I can’t testify to you that I’m 100 percent

sure that any sanctions regime will have an absolute effect that

you want on the Iranian...

01:22:47
Senator VOINOVICH

I hate to——

01:22:47
Mr. BURNS [continuing]

If what happened——

01:22:4711 sec.
Senator VOINOVICH [continuing]

Interrupt you, but will sanctions

have any influence on Iran’s behavior toward Iraq or Iran’s

policy of meddling in the Lebanon-Israeli...

01:22:5822 sec.
Mr. BURNS

First and foremost, these sanctions would be designed

to have an impact on their nuclear policy and on their

present disinclination to abide...

01:23:2036 sec.
Senator VOINOVICH

Well, I hope you’re right. I think the real

question must be: What influence will sanctions have on the Iranian

people and what they believe...

01:23:561 min.
Mr. BURNS

If I could just say—I don’t know if time is up, Mr.

Chairman—but I think you’ve asked, you know, a central question,

Senator, and that’s...

01:25:47
Senator VOINOVICH

Thank you.

01:25:47
Mr. BURNS

Thank you.

01:25:4712 sec.
The CHAIRMAN

Thank you very much, Senator Voinovich.

Now, I’m going to recognize Senator Obama for his 8 minutes,

and then this will conclude our questioning...

01:25:591 min.
Senator OBAMA

Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I apologize for being

late. I had a conflict.

Secretary Burns, I missed much of your testimony, so forgive me

if...

01:27:44
Mr. BURNS

Senator Obama, thank you very much.

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01:27:44
Senator OBAMA

I recognize that.

01:27:442 min.
Mr. BURNS [continuing]

In this session, answer your question as

best I can by saying that Russia and the United States have very

different views about Iran, in...

01:30:2922 sec.
Senator OBAMA

But you feel confident that—should the Iranians

not take advantage of the opportunity to work something out here

in the final hours—you...

01:30:5139 sec.
Mr. BURNS

I do. As well as China—the key question will be,

what type of sanctions? I don’t think there’s any argument among

the P–5. If Iran doesn’t...

01:31:3015 sec.
Senator OBAMA

Give me a sense of the differences in terms of

how—without getting into every last detail—United States and

Russian and Chinese perceptions...

01:31:451 min.
Mr. BURNS

Here’s where we agree, and I’ll tell you where we

disagree, or where I think we may disagree. We all agree that you

won’t put everything...

01:33:172 min.
Senator OBAMA

Last question, I’m running short on time here,

and this goes to a broader issue. And that is, our posture toward

Iran regarding their own...

01:35:352 min.
Mr. BURNS

Senator, thank you for that question.

First, we are not modeling the present solution for the Iran nuclear

crisis on the Agreed Framework...

01:38:34
The CHAIRMAN

Thank you very much, Senator Obama. Senator

Dodd has asked to raise one question, and of course we will assent

to the Senator.

01:38:347 sec.
Senator Dodd

01:38:411 min.
Senator DODD

Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman. I apologize

to my colleagues here and the witnesses and Under Secretary, to

you, for being late getting...

01:40:061 min.
Mr. BURNS

Senator Dodd, we have tried to be very careful and

prudent in putting forward information to you, and to the public,

that we believe is...

01:41:2020 sec.
Senator DODD

Well, it would be very, very helpful to all of us

here, because we rely—we like to rely—we get that much contradiction

from responsible...

01:41:4023 sec.
Mr. BURNS

Well I would just like to say, we have no reason to

question the intentions of the framers of the House report, we just

haven’t—I haven’t...

01:42:035 sec.
Senator DODD

Well, the language was pretty strong, so if you’d

get back to us on that, I’d appreciate it very much.

01:42:0817 sec.
The CHAIRMAN

Thank you, Senator Dodd. A very sincere thanks

to you, Secretary Burns, for your testimony today, your forthcoming

responses to our questions,...

01:42:25
Mr. BURNS

Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Thank you.

01:42:251 min.
The CHAIRMAN

The Chair would like to call now our second

panel today, Dr. Ray Takeyh, senior fellow for Middle Eastern

Studies, Council on Foreign Relations;...

01:44:008 min.
Dr. TAKEYH

Thank you, Mr. Chairman, for inviting me back to

the committee, I’ll stay well within my 10-minute limitation, I have

submitted my full...

01:52:0013 sec.
The CHAIRMAN

Well, thank you very much, Dr. Takeyh.

Will you please proceed, Secretary Carter?

STATEMENT OF HON. ASHTON B. CARTER, CODIRECTOR, PREVENTIVE

DEFENSE...

01:52:1318 min.
Mr. CARTER

Mr. Chairman and members, thank you for inviting

me to be here today to discuss the alternative courses of action if

the diplomatic course...

02:10:4124 sec.
The CHAIRMAN

Thank you very much, Mr. Carter.

Ambassador Indyk.

STATEMENT OF HON. MARTIN S. INDYK, DIRECTOR, THE

SABAN CENTER FOR MIDDLE...

02:11:0510 min.
Mr. INDYK

I will try to summarize it very quickly.

Mr. Chairman, you pointed out that I had tried to deal with the

Iranian issues when I was Assistant...

02:21:2040 sec.
The CHAIRMAN

Well, thank you very much, Ambassador Indyk.

Let me just say that, procedurally now, we are about 3 or 4 minutes

away from a rollcall vote....

02:22:002 min.
Senator HAGEL [presiding]

That’s a risky proposition, leaving me

in charge, but we will proceed in spite of that. It will not be voted

on. Thank you, Senator Dodd....

02:24:511 min.
Dr. TAKEYH

The congruity of having exchange programs while

imposing a travel ban, I think that’s what we’re talking about. I

VerDate 11-MAY-2000 13:50...

02:26:44
Senator HAGEL

Thank you.

Ash.

02:26:442 min.
Mr. CARTER

Senator, I can only put the following interpretation

on what Under Secretary Burns said, because I agree with you that

getting an education...

02:29:10
Senator HAGEL

Thank you.

Martin.

02:29:102 min.
Mr. INDYK

Well, Senator Hagel, I think you really put your finger

on a larger problem, which is the contradiction in the administration’s

approach...

02:32:09
Senator HAGEL

Thank you.

Senator Biden.

02:32:0929 sec.
Senator BIDEN

Do you both agree with that last statement? That

the most effective thing is to isolate them diplomatically, and that

almost any configuration...

02:32:382 min.
Dr. TAKEYH

I think we’re all in agreement that there is sort of

a sanctions regime that is contemplated. For it to be effective multilateral

is unlikely...

02:35:20
Senator BIDEN

Thank you.

Ash.

02:35:2039 sec.
Mr. CARTER

I just, very briefly, I agree with your contention,

Senator Biden, with my two colleagues. There is a sense, however,

and I noted this earlier,...

02:35:5916 sec.
Senator BIDEN

Excuse me, I’m not asking whether they have a

political effect; I’m asking whether or not it’s possible to get the

sanctions. In other words,...

02:36:151 min.
Mr. CARTER

I’m sorry, then, that I also agree with the sanctions

we can get will not be effective, and the sanctions you can imagine

being effective,...

02:37:332 min.
Senator BIDEN

That’s—without ruining your reputation—I agree

with you completely. That’s been the thesis on which I’ve been operating,

that (a) there...

02:39:5955 sec.
Mr. INDYK

Well, first of all, on the timeline, Senator Biden, I

think it’s important to bear in mind that while you and Ash are

correct at this time...

02:40:541 min.
Senator BIDEN

Well, let’s assume that’s true. There aren’t many

options anybody has laid out to do anything about that. In other

words, I mean, we have...

02:42:27
Mr. INDYK

Well, we’re left with the choice between bad options.

02:42:279 sec.
Senator BIDEN

Well, I haven’t even heard any option that is not

bad, we’re left with a choice between disastrous options.

02:42:36
Mr. INDYK

Well, no, I wouldn’t go that far, I mean——

02:42:3613 sec.
Senator BIDEN

Well, military force, use of military force in the

near term—is that an option that does anything to generate or benefit

our short-term...

02:42:4911 sec.
Mr. INDYK

Ash should answer that, but I mean, we should not

abandon the diplomatic option just at the moment when it’s going

to be really tested,...

02:43:00
Senator BIDEN

I’m not suggesting that.

02:43:0039 sec.
Mr. INDYK [continuing]

We have to pursue that first and foremost.

And there is a military option. Ash has laid out a lot of problems

with that, but I think, ultimately,...

02:43:3941 sec.
Senator BIDEN

Well, I would argue that there is an interim step

in there within the timeframe we’re talking about, but that’s a different

issue. Let me...

02:44:2015 sec.
Mr. CARTER

I’m not an expert, Senator, on oil markets, but my

understanding is that we would just end up buying oil from Venezuela,

and somebody whose...

02:44:35
Senator BIDEN

I think it’s important for the record that that be

stated.

02:44:351 min.
Mr. CARTER

It would have no effect on Iran or on us, for that

matter. May I touch on this question of the Israelis and the knowl-

VerDate 11-MAY-2000...

02:46:3315 sec.
Senator BIDEN

Well, I noticed that the new Israeli Ministry of

Intelligence has stopped using the phrase ‘‘point of no return.’’ And

I’m at the point...

02:46:481 min.
Senator DODD

Well, thank you, Mr. Chairman, and thank all

three of you for your continuing help and support and trying to

shed some light on a very,...

02:47:523 min.
Dr. TAKEYH

I’ll just begin. In terms of negotiating options with

Iran, I think what Senator Biden was referring to that, what are

the options to negotiate.

First...

02:51:032 min.
Mr. CARTER

It’s an excellent question—it’s the key question—

what would we be satisfied with? Ray’s given a version of it that

I think is quite cogent,...

02:53:221 min.
Senator DODD

Do you think that satisfies Iran? I was intrigued

by Martin’s point earlier, and I was telling the chairman on our

way over to vote, without...

02:54:2312 sec.
Mr. CARTER

The result I described, which was purely a nuclear

result, is unlikely—in my judgment—to be attained in isolation. It

will be part of some...

02:54:35
Senator DODD

Right.

02:54:3525 sec.
Mr. CARTER

And the larger package will cut both ways for the

Iranian leadership. To some extent it will legitimize them and reward

the roll they’re...

02:55:00
Senator DODD

That’s right.

02:55:0030 sec.
Mr. CARTER

And, I’m sure there’s some who want to have the

bomb, and nothing can turn them around, others who want to have

VerDate 11-MAY-2000 13:50...

02:55:30
Senator DODD

Ambassador, do you want to add anything to this?

02:55:3025 sec.
Mr. INDYK

I don’t think I spoke to that same high-level leader,

but I did hear one of them here just recently speak in what I would

assume would be...

02:55:55
Senator DODD

In fact, that was the same message.

02:55:552 min.
Mr. INDYK

And that’s a very real fear that they have in the region.

But I just want to come back to what I thought was very useful

explanation on...

02:58:3543 sec.
Senator DODD

Someone suggested that we take some sort of a

bold action here to break through and start the process. I like, by

the way, the analogy going...

02:59:1812 sec.
Mr. INDYK

We would love to do that, the Bush administration

would love to do that, the Iranians have never been prepared to

allow us.

They have...

02:59:3015 sec.
Senator DODD

Have we made a public offering? I don’t recall

ever seeing that kind of a public expression of offering that exchange

of intersections being...

02:59:4516 sec.
Mr. INDYK

Well, our interests are represented by the Swiss—I

forget who represents their interests, Pakistan—but in terms of actually

being able to,...

03:00:01
Senator DODD

They’ve been resistant to this.

Mr. Chairman, I’ve got a dozen more questions, but I can see the

look on your face and the look on these—I...

03:00:015 min.
The CHAIRMAN

It will be placed in the record.

[The prepared statement of Senator Dodd follows:]

PREPARED STATEMENT OF SENATOR CHRISTOPHER J. DODD, U.S....

03:05:451 min.
Dr. TAKEYH

Ash can talk about his buffer plan. I’ll briefly say

something that has been alluded to in this hearing and others—is

to, I always view...

03:07:3015 sec.
Mr. CARTER

Before my Security Officer has a stroke, I would say

that I would have to ask, and I would probably not be allowed to

go.

03:07:455 sec.
The CHAIRMAN

But it might be important to publicize the fact

that you are attempting to do that.

03:07:501 min.
Dr. TAKEYH

Simon and I went through months of negotiations

to go and they never, ultimately their final response was a no re-

VerDate 11-MAY-2000 13:50...

03:09:00
The CHAIRMAN

Ash, do you have a thought?

03:09:001 min.
Mr. CARTER

Just two observations here, both excellent questions,

and Ray has given excellent answers to them.

On the question of the troops in the...

03:10:402 min.
Mr. INDYK

I would just say, first of all, on the issue of exchanges,

I think, in principle, it’s a very good idea, and we should

encourage it, but...

03:12:4854 sec.
The CHAIRMAN

Well, there is lots of optimism. That’s a lot of

wisdom, and we appreciate it very much—your thoughtfulness,

your patience, your stamina,...

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