Stimulus for Economic Recovery

Oct 30, 2008

U.S. House of Representatives

Economists and business leaders testified about the state of the economy, indications of faltering economic growth, and policy options for economic stimulus. Topics included the recent release by the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) numbers for the third quarter, the complexity of the financial crisis and impact on .. Read More
Economists and business leaders testified about the state of the economy, indications of faltering economic growth, and policy options for economic stimulus. Topics included the recent release by the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) numbers for the third quarter, the complexity of the financial crisis and impact on the overall economy, instability in credit markets, and potential government action during economic recessions.

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TIME SPEAKER TEXT
00:00:33 Maloney, CarolynU.S. Representative

The meeting will come to order. I believe our

meeting should start on time. I know that other...

00:06:10 Brady, KevinU.S. Representative

Thank you.

I join Vice Chairwoman Maloney in thanking the panel of witnesses

before us...

00:11:08 Maloney, CarolynU.S. Representative

I thank the gentleman for his statement today, and

I welcome all the panelists here.

I...

00:14:10 Landefeld, J. StevenDirector

(Off mike.) Thank you, Madame Chair and members

of the committee -- (inaudible) --. Okay, going....

00:18:53 Maloney, CarolynU.S. Representative

(Off mike.)

00:19:00 Roubini, NourielProfessor

Madame Chair, members of the committee, thank you

for this opportunity to speak in front of...

00:24:20 Maloney, CarolynU.S. Representative

(Off mike.)

00:24:22 Johnson, SimonSenior Fellow

Thank you, Madame Chairman.

I'd like to make three points this morning. The first is that we

are...

00:29:20 Maloney, CarolynU.S. Representative

(Off mike.)

00:29:22 Vedder, RichardVisiting Scholar

Thank you.

I guess the economy must be in trouble for the JEC to have a

hearing less than...

00:33:49 Maloney, CarolynU.S. Representative

I thank all of the panelists for their testimony.

Your complete testimony will be part of the...

00:34:12 Landefeld, J. StevenDirector

Sometimes people use a rough rule of thumb that

two successive quarters of decline in real GDP...

00:35:20 Maloney, CarolynU.S. Representative

Dr. Roubini?

00:35:23 Roubini, NourielProfessor

I do believe we are already in the recession, and

actually my knowledge would suggest that this...

00:36:55 Maloney, CarolynU.S. Representative

Dr. Johnson?

00:36:58 Johnson, SimonSenior Fellow

I think the U.S. economy is in recession. I think

it entered into recession dramatically in...

00:38:06 Maloney, CarolynU.S. Representative

Dr. Vedder?

00:38:08 Vedder, RichardVisiting Scholar

I like what Dr. Landefeld said a lot and I'll stick

with that. I think the NBER makes the determination...

00:38:34 Maloney, CarolynU.S. Representative

Thank you. My time has expired. I now recognize

Mr. Brady for five minutes.

00:38:40 Brady, KevinU.S. Representative

Thank you, ma'am.

Congress doesn't need much of an excuse to spend more. We tend

to do...

00:41:07 Vedder, RichardVisiting Scholar

I'm not an expert on Colombia so far, but as an

economist I would say any attempt to prevent...

00:41:40 Brady, KevinU.S. Representative

So Congress's actions have hurt rather than help?

00:41:41 Vedder, RichardVisiting Scholar

Yes, that's right.

00:41:43 Brady, KevinU.S. Representative

Dr. Landefeld?

00:41:45 Landefeld, J. StevenDirector

Well, as director of statistical agency we don't

comment on policy, but certainly --

00:41:51 Brady, KevinU.S. Representative

But as far as the economic impact of export activity

00:41:53 Landefeld, J. StevenDirector

The economic impact of net exports, it added

about a percent during the previous four quarters...

00:42:13 Brady, KevinU.S. Representative

As far as economic scale, that's significant,

though.

00:42:15 Landefeld, J. StevenDirector

Oh, yeah, yeah. You're talking about a growth

rate that fell from 2.8 percent to .8 percent...

00:42:23 Brady, KevinU.S. Representative

But exports, how -- (cross talk) -- dramatically

improved that financial picture.

00:42:28 Landefeld, J. StevenDirector

Yes, by a percentage point in the last four --

previous four quarters and a percentage point...

00:42:35 Brady, KevinU.S. Representative

Our ability to sell our goods and services cross

country have really been sort of the lifeline...

00:42:44 Landefeld, J. StevenDirector

Over the last eight quarters --

00:42:44 Brady, KevinU.S. Representative

Eight quarters.

00:42:44 Landefeld, J. StevenDirector

-- there's been a significant positive

contribution to growth.

00:42:47 Brady, KevinU.S. Representative

Right.

Thank you, Madame Chairwoman. I yield back.

00:42:50 Maloney, CarolynU.S. Representative

The chair now recognizes Representative Hinchey,

and we're recognizing members in the order...

00:42:59 Hinchey, MauriceU.S. Representative

Chairlady Maloney, thank you very

much. And, gentlemen, thank you. It's very interesting to...

00:46:03 Roubini, NourielProfessor

I certainly agree with your points. Right now,

we're facing a very severe contraction of most...

00:48:29 Hinchey, MauriceU.S. Representative

Unfortunately my time is over.

00:48:32 Maloney, CarolynU.S. Representative

Senator Bennett is recognized for five minutes.

00:48:33 Bennett, Robert F.U.S. Senator

Thank you very much, Madame Chairman. And thank

you for holding the hearing. It's very timely...

00:49:04 Landefeld, J. StevenDirector

Again, I'm going to have to dodge this.

00:49:06 Bennett, Robert F.U.S. Senator

Okay. Dr. Roubini?

00:49:08 Roubini, NourielProfessor

My answer is yes, as long as most of the money is

used in order to recapitalize the banks with...

00:49:24 Bennett, Robert F.U.S. Senator

Dr. Johnson?

00:49:24 Johnson, SimonSenior Fellow

The original design of TARP to buy distressed

assets was a bad idea and remains a bad idea....

00:49:43 Bennett, Robert F.U.S. Senator

Okay. Dr. Vedder?

00:49:45 Vedder, RichardVisiting Scholar

The original proposal that the Senate voted on I

reluctantly supported. When you got through...

00:50:07 Bennett, Robert F.U.S. Senator

Okay. It adds $700 billion to the national debt.

Our normal activities, independent of that,...

00:52:14 Vedder, RichardVisiting Scholar

Well, I think you're on to a good point, Senator.

How are you going to pay for this? Are you...

00:53:01 Bennett, Robert F.U.S. Senator

In the quick time -- anybody else? Dr. Johnson?

00:53:03 Johnson, SimonSenior Fellow

Two points I think to keep in mind. The first is

that the United States, compared to almost...

00:54:04 Roubini, NourielProfessor

I would add another point. That is that you have

ask yourself, what's the alternative? Is the...

00:54:46 Maloney, CarolynU.S. Representative

You're yielding back your time. The chair

recognizes Representative Cummings.

00:54:52 Cummings, ElijahU.S. Representative

Thank you very much, Madame

Chairlady.

Mr. Roubin, you -- Dr. Roubini, you said something...

00:58:25 Roubini, NourielProfessor

Yes. To elaborate on some of your points, first of

all, I think there is a definite perception...

01:00:48 Cummings, ElijahU.S. Representative

Thank you. I see my time is up.

01:00:53 Maloney, CarolynU.S. Representative

Thank you.

Dr. Roubini, you have testified that the U.S. is more likely to

experience...

01:01:30 Roubini, NourielProfessor

My view is that six months from now, the biggest

problem that the Fed is going to have to face...

01:03:36 Maloney, CarolynU.S. Representative

What would risk would falling prices -- could you

elaborate, what risk would falling prices...

01:03:57 Roubini, NourielProfessor

Well, deflation is dangerous for a variety of

reasons, as the experience of Japan in the 1990s...

01:05:26 Maloney, CarolynU.S. Representative

How will a fiscal stimulus package help?

01:05:28 Roubini, NourielProfessor

It helps because in a situation of deflation,

demand is below supply. And because demand is...

01:05:56 Maloney, CarolynU.S. Representative

My time has expired.

Mr. Brady.

01:05:57 Brady, KevinU.S. Representative

Well, I think -- I want to thank you

for holding this hearing. I think it's important to do...

01:08:38 Landefeld, J. StevenDirector

Again, I think I'll have to not answer this

question, because it tends to get into policy when...

01:08:50 Roubini, NourielProfessor

My view is that even before the very severe

financial shocks of September/October, when you...

01:10:58 Brady, KevinU.S. Representative

(Inaudible) -- and Dr. Johnson.

01:11:01 Johnson, SimonSenior Fellow

I suggest you look at three things. The first is

the interest rates, which the market is charging...

01:11:58 Brady, KevinU.S. Representative

(Inaudible.)

01:12:00 Vedder, RichardVisiting Scholar

Well, I'm kind of old-fashioned. I just -- when I

look at the macro economy, I look, like Dr....

01:12:32 Brady, KevinU.S. Representative

Thank you, Doctor.

I yield back.

01:12:36 Maloney, CarolynU.S. Representative

Mr. Hinchey.

01:12:38 Hinchey, MauriceU.S. Representative

Thank you very much, Madame

Chairman.

This has been a fascinating hearing, and...

01:14:19 Johnson, SimonSenior Fellow

Certainly. I think you're making a very important

point. I think there is a longer-term need...

01:15:50 Hinchey, MauriceU.S. Representative

Thank you, Dr. Johnson.

Dr. Roubini, would you comment on that, please?

01:15:53 Roubini, NourielProfessor

I agree with you that the issue of energy security

is going to be one of the most crucial economic,...

01:17:21 Hinchey, MauriceU.S. Representative

Thank you very much. A lot of support here for

that, too.

Dr. Vedder.

01:17:26 Vedder, RichardVisiting Scholar

You know, well, how can you talk against technology?

It's like talking against motherhood, I'm...

01:18:24 Hinchey, MauriceU.S. Representative

Thank you.

01:18:25 Maloney, CarolynU.S. Representative

Senator Bennett.

01:18:26 Bennett, Robert F.U.S. Senator

Thank you.

I'd be tempted to get into this energy debate. If you want to

create jobs,...

01:20:41 Roubini, NourielProfessor

Senator, you certainly make a valid point

suggesting that eventually the falling oil and energy...

01:22:35 Bennett, Robert F.U.S. Senator

Sure.

The growth of supply might be slower than the one of demand and

then we have to...

01:23:17 Johnson, SimonSenior Fellow

Senator, I think you put your finger on a very

important irony, almost paradox, which is, how...

01:24:22 Bennett, Robert F.U.S. Senator

Dr. Vedder.

01:24:23 Vedder, RichardVisiting Scholar

As an economic historian, I'm amused at this

discussion. Between 1864 and 1896, wholesale prices...

01:24:53 Bennett, Robert F.U.S. Senator

I see my time is up. Thank you, Madame Chairman.

01:24:56 Maloney, CarolynU.S. Representative

Thank you.

Mr. Cummings.

01:24:58 Cummings, ElijahU.S. Representative

Thank you very much, Madame Chairlady.

You know, I'm just trying to put myself in the shoes,...

01:29:24 Johnson, SimonSenior Fellow

Thank you. In my written testimony, I suggest very

strongly that unemployment benefits should...

01:30:10 Cummings, ElijahU.S. Representative

Dr. Roubini, did you have something?

01:30:12 Roubini, NourielProfessor

I think the issue with unemployment is going to be

a very serious one. Even during the last...

01:32:36 Cummings, ElijahU.S. Representative

Thank you.

01:32:38 Maloney, CarolynU.S. Representative

Okay, thank you for that fine statement.

I thank all of the panelists. You have really given...

01:34:05 Maloney, CarolynU.S. Representative

I'd like to welcome the second panel, and we are

going to be hearing from community leaders...

01:34:41 Cummings, ElijahU.S. Representative

Thank you very much, Madame

Chairlady. And we are indeed honored to have three of Maryland's

finest....

01:36:25 Maloney, CarolynU.S. Representative

Thank you for helping us put this panel together.

And each panelist will be recognized for five...

01:36:35 DeMarco, VincentPresident

Thank you, Madame Chairwoman Maloney and members of

the committee, Congressman Cummings, who's...

01:41:45 Maloney, CarolynU.S. Representative

Mr. Fry.

01:41:46 Fry, Donald C.President and CEO

Madame Chair, members of the committee, thank you very

much for the opportunity to be here.

First...

01:45:44 Maloney, CarolynU.S. Representative

(Off mike.)

01:45:46 Haskins, Joseph Jr.Chairman, President, and CEO

Thank you very much, Vice Chairwoman Maloney. And

I thank my congressman, Elijah Cummings, for...

01:52:26 Maloney, CarolynU.S. Representative

Thank all the panelists for your testimony. It's

important and very relevant.

I would...

01:52:43 Cummings, ElijahU.S. Representative

Thank you very much, Madame Chairlady.

Mr. Haskins, many small businesses have had problems...

01:53:25 Haskins, Joseph Jr.Chairman, President, and CEO

It's a serious problem. I can tell you that we

finance many of the small businesses, including...

01:54:55 Cummings, ElijahU.S. Representative

One of the things that, you know, in our research

-- I also sit on the Government Reform committee,...

01:55:46 Haskins, Joseph Jr.Chairman, President, and CEO

That's a fair and accurate comment. You know,

it's, it's easy when -- and again, this is not...

01:58:14 Cummings, ElijahU.S. Representative

Do you see much of a default rate with regard to

your mortgages?

01:58:18 Haskins, Joseph Jr.Chairman, President, and CEO

We have defaults, we have increasing delinquencies

and what we're trying to do is work with...

01:59:20 Cummings, ElijahU.S. Representative

I see my time is up. Thank you.

01:59:23 Brady, KevinU.S. Representative

Well, thank you to the panelists, especially to

those who have Congressman Cummings as their...

02:00:59 Haskins, Joseph Jr.Chairman, President, and CEO

Yes.

02:00:59 Brady, KevinU.S. Representative

You know, we don't have these problems, we didn't

make these bad loans, we're running these...

02:02:20 Haskins, Joseph Jr.Chairman, President, and CEO

Mm hmm.

02:02:20 Brady, KevinU.S. Representative

-- you know, that there'd actually be value in them

before that occurs. Is there merit in us...

02:03:10 Haskins, Joseph Jr.Chairman, President, and CEO

I think your comments are just so right on. You

know, many of my colleagues in the banking world...

02:06:10 Brady, KevinU.S. Representative

Good. Thank you, sir. I appreciate your being here

today, all the panelists.

02:06:15 Maloney, CarolynU.S. Representative

Thank you for your testimony.

And Congress did pass a mortgage reform bill...

02:07:18 Haskins, Joseph Jr.Chairman, President, and CEO

I would tell you that in all the categories that

you've mentioned -- to be quick and then I...

02:10:36 Maloney, CarolynU.S. Representative

Well, could you clarify? When you say you have to

reserve against those, do they have a specific...

02:10:48 Haskins, Joseph Jr.Chairman, President, and CEO

For example, if it's assumed that -- and they will

come up with several different indices to...

02:11:38 Maloney, CarolynU.S. Representative

Thank you.

Mr. Fry, I'd like to focus really on a concern that we've heard

repeatedly...

02:12:35 Fry, Donald C.President and CEO

I appreciate the concerns of those that are worried

about the lag that may occur before a project...

02:13:42 Maloney, CarolynU.S. Representative

Thank you very much. My time is expired. And,

Mr. Cummings.

02:13:46 Cummings, ElijahU.S. Representative

Thank you very much, Madame Chairlady.

Mr. DeMarco, let me just ask you this: I think there...

02:16:32 DeMarco, VincentPresident

Yes, Congressman Cummings, we do, and we've had

public hearings across the state where we hear...

02:20:03 Cummings, ElijahU.S. Representative

Just one last question, Madame Chair.

Mr. DeMarco, what would be the benefit of extending the...

02:20:20 DeMarco, VincentPresident

Well, Representative Cummings, we want healthcare

for all for the whole country. That is our...

02:21:15 Cummings, ElijahU.S. Representative

I want to thank all of you for being here today,

and we really do appreciate what you've done....

02:22:13 Haskins, Joseph Jr.Chairman, President, and CEO

This problem is across the board and when you start

seeing the defaults that will begin to occur...

02:24:25 Cummings, ElijahU.S. Representative

Thank you very much, Madame Chairlady, for your

indulgence.

02:24:28 Maloney, CarolynU.S. Representative

Thank you.

One last question. Mr. Haskins, you testified that you did not

invest and participate...

02:24:51 Haskins, Joseph Jr.Chairman, President, and CEO

I can't tell you my first reaction. (Laughter.)

That wouldn't be recordable. But I'll tell you...

02:25:55 Maloney, CarolynU.S. Representative

Thank you. And, finally, I'd like to ask all of

the panelists, beginning with you, Mr. Haskins:...

02:26:25 Haskins, Joseph Jr.Chairman, President, and CEO

First, you're going to get people in positions to

earn a living. You're going to get jobs. Creating...

02:27:54 Fry, Donald C.President and CEO

Madame Chair, I think that such a stimulus package that

included aid to state governments and...

02:29:58 DeMarco, VincentPresident

Thank you, Madame Chair. We would urge you to

include in your stimulus package an increase in...

02:31:01 Maloney, CarolynU.S. Representative

Well, thank you, and I'd like to sincerely thank

all the panelists and witnesses for their really...

RELATED PROGRAMS

PEOPLE GRID LIST

  • Roubini, Nouriel
  • Haskins, Joseph Jr.
  • Maloney, Carolyn
  • Cummings, Elijah
  • Brady, Kevin
  • Johnson, Simon
  • DeMarco, Vincent
  • Vedder, Richard
  • Fry, Donald C.
  • Bennett, Robert F.
  • Hinchey, Maurice
  • Landefeld, J. Steven

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