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| TIME | SPEAKER | TEXT |
|---|---|---|
| 00:00:33 |
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The meeting will come to order. I believe our meeting should start on time. I know that other... |
| 00:06:10 |
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Thank you. I join Vice Chairwoman Maloney in thanking the panel of witnesses before us... |
| 00:11:08 |
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I thank the gentleman for his statement today, and I welcome all the panelists here. I... |
| 00:14:10 |
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(Off mike.) Thank you, Madame Chair and members of the committee -- (inaudible) --. Okay, going.... |
| 00:18:53 |
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(Off mike.) |
| 00:19:00 |
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Madame Chair, members of the committee, thank you for this opportunity to speak in front of... |
| 00:24:20 |
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(Off mike.) |
| 00:24:22 |
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Thank you, Madame Chairman. I'd like to make three points this morning. The first is that we are... |
| 00:29:20 |
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(Off mike.) |
| 00:29:22 |
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Thank you. I guess the economy must be in trouble for the JEC to have a hearing less than... |
| 00:33:49 |
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I thank all of the panelists for their testimony. Your complete testimony will be part of the... |
| 00:34:12 |
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Sometimes people use a rough rule of thumb that two successive quarters of decline in real GDP... |
| 00:35:20 |
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Dr. Roubini? |
| 00:35:23 |
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I do believe we are already in the recession, and actually my knowledge would suggest that this... |
| 00:36:55 |
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Dr. Johnson? |
| 00:36:58 |
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I think the U.S. economy is in recession. I think it entered into recession dramatically in... |
| 00:38:06 |
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Dr. Vedder? |
| 00:38:08 |
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I like what Dr. Landefeld said a lot and I'll stick with that. I think the NBER makes the determination... |
| 00:38:34 |
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Thank you. My time has expired. I now recognize Mr. Brady for five minutes. |
| 00:38:40 |
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Thank you, ma'am. Congress doesn't need much of an excuse to spend more. We tend to do... |
| 00:41:07 |
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I'm not an expert on Colombia so far, but as an economist I would say any attempt to prevent... |
| 00:41:40 |
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So Congress's actions have hurt rather than help? |
| 00:41:41 |
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Yes, that's right. |
| 00:41:43 |
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Dr. Landefeld? |
| 00:41:45 |
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Well, as director of statistical agency we don't comment on policy, but certainly -- |
| 00:41:51 |
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But as far as the economic impact of export activity |
| 00:41:53 |
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The economic impact of net exports, it added about a percent during the previous four quarters... |
| 00:42:13 |
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As far as economic scale, that's significant, though. |
| 00:42:15 |
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Oh, yeah, yeah. You're talking about a growth rate that fell from 2.8 percent to .8 percent... |
| 00:42:23 |
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But exports, how -- (cross talk) -- dramatically improved that financial picture. |
| 00:42:28 |
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Yes, by a percentage point in the last four -- previous four quarters and a percentage point... |
| 00:42:35 |
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Our ability to sell our goods and services cross country have really been sort of the lifeline... |
| 00:42:44 |
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Over the last eight quarters -- |
| 00:42:44 |
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Eight quarters. |
| 00:42:44 |
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-- there's been a significant positive contribution to growth. |
| 00:42:47 |
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Right. Thank you, Madame Chairwoman. I yield back. |
| 00:42:50 |
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The chair now recognizes Representative Hinchey, and we're recognizing members in the order... |
| 00:42:59 |
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Chairlady Maloney, thank you very much. And, gentlemen, thank you. It's very interesting to... |
| 00:46:03 |
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I certainly agree with your points. Right now, we're facing a very severe contraction of most... |
| 00:48:29 |
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Unfortunately my time is over. |
| 00:48:32 |
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Senator Bennett is recognized for five minutes. |
| 00:48:33 |
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Thank you very much, Madame Chairman. And thank you for holding the hearing. It's very timely... |
| 00:49:04 |
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Again, I'm going to have to dodge this. |
| 00:49:06 |
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Okay. Dr. Roubini? |
| 00:49:08 |
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My answer is yes, as long as most of the money is used in order to recapitalize the banks with... |
| 00:49:24 |
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Dr. Johnson? |
| 00:49:24 |
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The original design of TARP to buy distressed assets was a bad idea and remains a bad idea.... |
| 00:49:43 |
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Okay. Dr. Vedder? |
| 00:49:45 |
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The original proposal that the Senate voted on I reluctantly supported. When you got through... |
| 00:50:07 |
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Okay. It adds $700 billion to the national debt. Our normal activities, independent of that,... |
| 00:52:14 |
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Well, I think you're on to a good point, Senator. How are you going to pay for this? Are you... |
| 00:53:01 |
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In the quick time -- anybody else? Dr. Johnson? |
| 00:53:03 |
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Two points I think to keep in mind. The first is that the United States, compared to almost... |
| 00:54:04 |
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I would add another point. That is that you have ask yourself, what's the alternative? Is the... |
| 00:54:46 |
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You're yielding back your time. The chair recognizes Representative Cummings. |
| 00:54:52 |
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Thank you very much, Madame Chairlady. Mr. Roubin, you -- Dr. Roubini, you said something... |
| 00:58:25 |
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Yes. To elaborate on some of your points, first of all, I think there is a definite perception... |
| 01:00:48 |
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Thank you. I see my time is up. |
| 01:00:53 |
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Thank you. Dr. Roubini, you have testified that the U.S. is more likely to experience... |
| 01:01:30 |
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My view is that six months from now, the biggest problem that the Fed is going to have to face... |
| 01:03:36 |
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What would risk would falling prices -- could you elaborate, what risk would falling prices... |
| 01:03:57 |
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Well, deflation is dangerous for a variety of reasons, as the experience of Japan in the 1990s... |
| 01:05:26 |
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How will a fiscal stimulus package help? |
| 01:05:28 |
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It helps because in a situation of deflation, demand is below supply. And because demand is... |
| 01:05:56 |
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My time has expired. Mr. Brady. |
| 01:05:57 |
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Well, I think -- I want to thank you for holding this hearing. I think it's important to do... |
| 01:08:38 |
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Again, I think I'll have to not answer this question, because it tends to get into policy when... |
| 01:08:50 |
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My view is that even before the very severe financial shocks of September/October, when you... |
| 01:10:58 |
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(Inaudible) -- and Dr. Johnson. |
| 01:11:01 |
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I suggest you look at three things. The first is the interest rates, which the market is charging... |
| 01:11:58 |
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(Inaudible.) |
| 01:12:00 |
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Well, I'm kind of old-fashioned. I just -- when I look at the macro economy, I look, like Dr.... |
| 01:12:32 |
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Thank you, Doctor. I yield back. |
| 01:12:36 |
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Mr. Hinchey. |
| 01:12:38 |
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Thank you very much, Madame Chairman. This has been a fascinating hearing, and... |
| 01:14:19 |
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Certainly. I think you're making a very important point. I think there is a longer-term need... |
| 01:15:50 |
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Thank you, Dr. Johnson. Dr. Roubini, would you comment on that, please? |
| 01:15:53 |
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I agree with you that the issue of energy security is going to be one of the most crucial economic,... |
| 01:17:21 |
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Thank you very much. A lot of support here for that, too. Dr. Vedder. |
| 01:17:26 |
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You know, well, how can you talk against technology? It's like talking against motherhood, I'm... |
| 01:18:24 |
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Thank you. |
| 01:18:25 |
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Senator Bennett. |
| 01:18:26 |
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Thank you. I'd be tempted to get into this energy debate. If you want to create jobs,... |
| 01:20:41 |
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Senator, you certainly make a valid point suggesting that eventually the falling oil and energy... |
| 01:22:35 |
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Sure. The growth of supply might be slower than the one of demand and then we have to... |
| 01:23:17 |
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Senator, I think you put your finger on a very important irony, almost paradox, which is, how... |
| 01:24:22 |
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Dr. Vedder. |
| 01:24:23 |
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As an economic historian, I'm amused at this discussion. Between 1864 and 1896, wholesale prices... |
| 01:24:53 |
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I see my time is up. Thank you, Madame Chairman. |
| 01:24:56 |
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Thank you. Mr. Cummings. |
| 01:24:58 |
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Thank you very much, Madame Chairlady. You know, I'm just trying to put myself in the shoes,... |
| 01:29:24 |
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Thank you. In my written testimony, I suggest very strongly that unemployment benefits should... |
| 01:30:10 |
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Dr. Roubini, did you have something? |
| 01:30:12 |
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I think the issue with unemployment is going to be a very serious one. Even during the last... |
| 01:32:36 |
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Thank you. |
| 01:32:38 |
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Okay, thank you for that fine statement. I thank all of the panelists. You have really given... |
| 01:34:05 |
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I'd like to welcome the second panel, and we are going to be hearing from community leaders... |
| 01:34:41 |
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Thank you very much, Madame Chairlady. And we are indeed honored to have three of Maryland's finest.... |
| 01:36:25 |
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Thank you for helping us put this panel together. And each panelist will be recognized for five... |
| 01:36:35 |
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Thank you, Madame Chairwoman Maloney and members of the committee, Congressman Cummings, who's... |
| 01:41:45 |
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Mr. Fry. |
| 01:41:46 |
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Madame Chair, members of the committee, thank you very much for the opportunity to be here. First... |
| 01:45:44 |
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(Off mike.) |
| 01:45:46 |
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Thank you very much, Vice Chairwoman Maloney. And I thank my congressman, Elijah Cummings, for... |
| 01:52:26 |
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Thank all the panelists for your testimony. It's important and very relevant. I would... |
| 01:52:43 |
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Thank you very much, Madame Chairlady. Mr. Haskins, many small businesses have had problems... |
| 01:53:25 |
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It's a serious problem. I can tell you that we finance many of the small businesses, including... |
| 01:54:55 |
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One of the things that, you know, in our research -- I also sit on the Government Reform committee,... |
| 01:55:46 |
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That's a fair and accurate comment. You know, it's, it's easy when -- and again, this is not... |
| 01:58:14 |
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Do you see much of a default rate with regard to your mortgages? |
| 01:58:18 |
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We have defaults, we have increasing delinquencies and what we're trying to do is work with... |
| 01:59:20 |
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I see my time is up. Thank you. |
| 01:59:23 |
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Well, thank you to the panelists, especially to those who have Congressman Cummings as their... |
| 02:00:59 |
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Yes. |
| 02:00:59 |
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You know, we don't have these problems, we didn't make these bad loans, we're running these... |
| 02:02:20 |
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Mm hmm. |
| 02:02:20 |
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-- you know, that there'd actually be value in them before that occurs. Is there merit in us... |
| 02:03:10 |
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I think your comments are just so right on. You know, many of my colleagues in the banking world... |
| 02:06:10 |
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Good. Thank you, sir. I appreciate your being here today, all the panelists. |
| 02:06:15 |
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Thank you for your testimony. And Congress did pass a mortgage reform bill... |
| 02:07:18 |
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I would tell you that in all the categories that you've mentioned -- to be quick and then I... |
| 02:10:36 |
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Well, could you clarify? When you say you have to reserve against those, do they have a specific... |
| 02:10:48 |
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For example, if it's assumed that -- and they will come up with several different indices to... |
| 02:11:38 |
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Thank you. Mr. Fry, I'd like to focus really on a concern that we've heard repeatedly... |
| 02:12:35 |
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I appreciate the concerns of those that are worried about the lag that may occur before a project... |
| 02:13:42 |
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Thank you very much. My time is expired. And, Mr. Cummings. |
| 02:13:46 |
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Thank you very much, Madame Chairlady. Mr. DeMarco, let me just ask you this: I think there... |
| 02:16:32 |
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Yes, Congressman Cummings, we do, and we've had public hearings across the state where we hear... |
| 02:20:03 |
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Just one last question, Madame Chair. Mr. DeMarco, what would be the benefit of extending the... |
| 02:20:20 |
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Well, Representative Cummings, we want healthcare for all for the whole country. That is our... |
| 02:21:15 |
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I want to thank all of you for being here today, and we really do appreciate what you've done.... |
| 02:22:13 |
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This problem is across the board and when you start seeing the defaults that will begin to occur... |
| 02:24:25 |
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Thank you very much, Madame Chairlady, for your indulgence. |
| 02:24:28 |
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Thank you. One last question. Mr. Haskins, you testified that you did not invest and participate... |
| 02:24:51 |
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I can't tell you my first reaction. (Laughter.) That wouldn't be recordable. But I'll tell you... |
| 02:25:55 |
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Thank you. And, finally, I'd like to ask all of the panelists, beginning with you, Mr. Haskins:... |
| 02:26:25 |
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First, you're going to get people in positions to earn a living. You're going to get jobs. Creating... |
| 02:27:54 |
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Madame Chair, I think that such a stimulus package that included aid to state governments and... |
| 02:29:58 |
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Thank you, Madame Chair. We would urge you to include in your stimulus package an increase in... |
| 02:31:01 |
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Well, thank you, and I'd like to sincerely thank all the panelists and witnesses for their really... |