The Defense Policy Panel of the committee heard from Robert Gates, the new director of Central Intelligence. In his first congressional appearance since his September confirmation, the former National Security Council staff analyst told the panel that fledgling democratic forces in the Russian states, and recent independence proclamations by Baltic and Slavic Republics, will lead this winter to the most significant civil disorder since the 1917 Russian Revolution. He pointed to severe shortages of food and fuel, disintegration of the armed services, and the ongoing ethnic conflicts as the main causes of the unstable conditions. Later behind closed doors, Director Gates told lawmakers that the developments may force Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev to step down and that the most immediate concern to U.S. security is control over the Soviet nuclear arsenal.