| 00:44:50 | REAL GDP IS USUALLY A PRETTY GOOD OVERALL MEASURE. |
| 00:44:54 | FOR A VARIETY OF REASONS, IT WAS NOT A GREAT MEASURE HERE. |
| 00:45:00 | MY SECOND VARIABLE, AND GEORGE BUSH'S APPROVAL RATING STOOD OUT AS BEING AMONG THE WORST IN MODERN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION AT -30 AT THE TIME. |
| 00:45:16 | IT HAS GOTTEN WORSE SINCE THEN. |
| 00:45:18 | IT WAS TERRIBLE THEN. |
| 00:45:20 | THERE WAS THE TIME FOR CHANGE FACTOR IN 2008 AS A SECOND TERM ELECTION. |
| 00:45:27 | HERE IS THE ESTIMATE AND THE WEIGHTS. |
| 00:45:30 | IT HAS A VERY HEIGHT ADJUSTED -- EXPLAINS OVER 90% OF THE VARIANTS. |
| 00:45:40 | HERE IS THE FORECAST. |
| 00:45:43 | THIS IS WHERE I CAME OUT BACK IN AUGUST. |
| 00:45:47 | THAT OBAMA WOULD GET 54. |
| 00:45:51 | 3% OF THE MAJOR PARTY VOTE. |
| 00:45:52 | HERE IS WHAT THE POLLS ARE SHOWING. |
| 00:45:55 | THAT IS WHAT THEY WERE SHOWING ON FRIDAY. |
| 00:45:58 | I AM SURE THAT HON NOT CHANGED THAT MUCH SINCE THEN. |
| 00:46:02 | BASED ON THE CLEAR POLITICS AVERAGE, OBAMA IS AHEAD BY 7. |
| 00:46:10 | 5%, PRETTY CLOTHES TO WEAR MY FORECAST CAME OUT. |
| 00:46:12 | I THINK IT IS LIKE EIGHT POINTS RIGHT NOW. |
| 00:46:17 | DID THE FINANCIAL CRISIS FUNDAMENTALLY CHANGE THE IT ELECTION? |
| 00:46:29 | WE DEBATED THIS OVER SEVERAL GLASSES OF WINE. |
| 00:46:33 | THE ARGUMENT GOT MORE AND MORE HEATED. |
| 00:46:36 | SOMEBODY AT A NEIGHBORING TABLE STEP IN AND SAID, I HAVE AN OPINION ABOUT THIS, BUT I AM NOT GOING TO TELL YOU WHAT IT IS. |
| 00:46:46 | WHO ARE THESE CRAZY POLITICAL SCIENTISTS? |
| 00:46:50 | LET ME EXPLAIN WHY I DO NOT BUY THAT ARGUMENT. |
| 00:46:54 | THERE IS THE ANSWER TO THAT QUESTION. |
| 00:46:57 | I THOUGHT THAT JOHN MCCAIN WAS SAYING THAT HE MIGHT LEAVE THE EXPLANATION. |
| 00:47:06 | A METEORITE IS AN EXHAUSTION AS FORCE THAT IS TOTALLY UNPREDICTABLE. |
| 00:47:12 | IT COMES FROM OUTER SPACE. |
| 00:47:14 | THE FINANCIAL MELTDOWN WAS NOT LIKE THAT. |
| 00:47:17 | WHILE NONE OF US COULD HAVE PREDICTED THE EXACT TIMING, IT WAS NOT RELATED TO THE PROBLEMS THE AMERICAN ECONOMY WAS EXPERIENCING. |
| 00:47:27 | THE POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT WAS ALREADY TOXIC FOR REPUBLICANS. |
| 00:47:31 | THERE ARE MANY INDICATIONS OF THIS. |
| 00:47:35 | LET'S LOOK AT GEORGE BUSH'S APPROVAL RATING. |
| 00:47:39 | HERE IS HIS AVERAGE MONTHLY APPROVAL RATING IN THE SPRING AND SUMMER. |
| 00:47:47 | 20%, 20%, 29%. |
| 00:47:51 | THOSE ARE AMONG THE LOWEST APPROVAL RATINGS IN ALL OF HISTORY. |
| 00:47:57 | THE IDEA THAT A CANDIDATE OF THAT PARTY COULD SOMEHOW MANAGED TO AVOID BEING DRAGGED DOWN BY A PRESIDENT THAT UNPOPULAR IS UNREALISTIC. |
| 00:48:08 | LOOK AT THE VIEW OF THE ECONOMY. |
| 00:48:12 | THIS IS THE CONSUMER CONFIDENCE MEASURE WHICH INCLUDES A NUMBER OF VARIABLES. |
| 00:48:18 | INCLUDING EXPECTATIONS ABOUT THE FUTURE. |
| 00:48:21 | GOING BACK AS FAR AS THE SPRING, THOSE RATINGS WERE OVERWHELMINGLY NEGATIVE. |
| 00:48:27 | REGARDLESS OF WHAT THE GDP NUMBERS SAY. |
| 00:48:30 | IT DID NOT TAKE THE COLLAPSE OF THE STOCK MARKET AND THE FINANCIAL MELTDOWN TO CAUSE THE PUBLIC TO SUDDENLY REALIZE THAT THE ECONOMY WAS TERRIBLE. |
| 00:48:42 | THE PUBLIC ALREADY REALIZE THAT THE ECONOMY WAS TERRIBLE. |
| 00:48:47 | LET'S LOOK OF THE PARTY IDENTIFICATION TRACKER. |
| 00:48:50 | THESE ARE THE MEASURES OF THE PARTY IDENTIFICATION WITH INDEPENDENT LEADERS AS PARSONS WITH THE GALLUP POLL THIS YEAR. |
| 00:49:00 | THERE HAVE BEEN 24 SURVEYS IN WHICH THE GALLUP HAS ASKED THE PARTY IDENTIFICATION QUESTION. |
| 00:49:09 | THERE HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT DEMOCRATIC ADVANTAGE IN PARTY IDENTIFICATION. |
| 00:49:14 | THERE WAS ONE BRIEF EXCEPTION TO THAT RIGHT AFTER THE REPUBLICAN CONVENTION. |
| 00:49:20 | YOU SAW THIS MOVE APART. |
| 00:49:24 | THAT IS A POINT AT WHICH IT NARROWS. |
| 00:49:27 | THAT IS WHEN JIM TOOK HIS MEASURE. |
| 00:49:32 | AT THE ONE. |
| 00:49:33 | ALL YEAR -- >> I WILL GET A REBUTTAL LATER. |
| 00:49:41 | >> LET'S SEE WHAT ELSE WE SEE ABOUT THAT. |
| 00:49:44 | HERE IS THE POLLSTER. |
| 00:49:49 | COM TRACKING OF THE CANDIDATES. |
| 00:49:51 | THERE IS ONE POINT IN THE GRAPHIC THAT SEEMS TO STAND OUT FROM THE OTHERS. |
| 00:49:56 | THERE IS ONE POINT THAT IS DIFFERENT. |
| 00:49:59 | CAN ANYONE NOTICE WHAT POINT IS DIFFERENT? |
| 00:50:02 | THAT IS WHEN JIM TOOK HIS TRIAL MEASURE RIGHT AFTER THE REPUBLICAN CONVENTION. |
| 00:50:08 | FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD BEFORE THEN GOING BACK TO JUNE ALL THE WAY UP UNTIL THE REPUBLICAN CONVENTION, OBAMA HAD THE LEAD. |
| 00:50:18 | THIS WAS AN AVERAGE OF ALL OF THE NATIONAL POLLS. |
| 00:50:21 | SOME WERE BASED ON LIKELY VOTERS AND OTHER BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS. |
| 00:50:28 | THE LEAD HAS GOTTEN BIGGER. |
| 00:50:30 | IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT THE FACT IF THE ECONOMY HAS GOTTEN EVEN WORSE THAN IT WAS THEN HAS ADDED TO THAT. |
| 00:50:40 | I WOULD NOT DENY THAT OBAMA'S LEAD IS SOMEWHAT LARGER NOW THAN IT WOULD HAVE BEEN OTHERWISE. |
| 00:50:47 | ALL OF OUR MODELS ASSUME THAT THE NATIONAL POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT IS FAIRLY STABLE. |
| 00:50:53 | THIS YEAR IT HAS GOTTEN WORSE FOR REPUBLICANS. |
| 00:50:56 | THAT IS TRUE. |
| 00:50:58 | IT WAS ALREADY A TERRIBLE. |
| 00:51:01 | IT HAS GONE FROM TERRIBLE TO MORE TERRIBLE. |
| 00:51:04 | I THINK JIM GOT CAUGHT BY THE GDP NUMBER THAT WAS MISLEADING. |
| 00:51:09 | HE TOOK HIS MEASURE AT THE ONE. |
| 00:51:12 | ALL YOUR -- ONE POINT ALL YEAR THAT JOHN MCCAIN MOVED AHEAD OF BARACK OBAMA. |
| 00:51:24 | REGARDLESS OF THE TIMING OF THE FINANCIAL MELTDOWN, THAT WAS NOT GOING TO LAST. |
| 00:51:30 | ANOTHER INDICATION OF WHAT HAS REALLY BEEN HAPPENING. |
| 00:51:34 | THE MAIN EFFECT OF THE CAMPAIGN HAS BEEN TO UNIFY THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY. |
| 00:51:39 | THIS SHOWS THE DIFFERENCE IN THE SUPPORT FOR THE CANDIDATES BASED ON THE GALLUP POLL BETWEEN JUNE AND OCTOBER. |
| 00:51:47 | WHAT HAS CHANGED? |
| 00:51:48 | WHAT HAS CHANGED IS THAT DEMOCRATS ARE MUCH MORE UNITED BEHIND OBAMA THAN THEY WERE BACK THEN. |
| 00:51:56 | THIS IS EXCLUDING A SMALL PERCENTAGE THAT IS UNDECIDED. |
| 00:52:00 | YOU CAN SEE THAT OBAMA HAS GAINED SIX POINTS AMONG DEMOCRATS AND FOUR POINTS AMONG INDEPENDENTS. |
| 00:52:08 | IF YOU COULD BREAK THAT DOWN AND YOU WOULD SEE MY GUESS IS THAT IT WAS MAINLY AMONG THE INDEPENDENT DEMOCRATS THAT IT WAS GAINING SUPPORT. |
| 00:52:20 | HE LOST A LITTLE BIT OF SUPPORT AMONG REPUBLICANS. |
| 00:52:23 | THERE IS INCREASING PARTISAN VOTING GOING ON HERE. |
| 00:52:28 | WE KNOW DEMOCRATS OUTNUMBER REPUBLICANS. |
| 00:52:32 | THEY SAY IT IS NOT OVER UNTIL THE FAT LADY SINGS. |
| 00:52:36 | SHE IS STEPPING UP TO THE MICROPHONE. |
| 00:52:39 | I HAPPEN TO CAPTURE A PICTURE OF HER LAST NIGHT OUTSIDE OF THE HOTEL. |
| 00:52:45 | >> THANK YOU. |
| 00:52:46 | IT IS ALWAYS GOOD TO HAVE CONTRAST. |
| 00:52:50 | PEOPLE ARE WRITING ARTICLES. |
| 00:52:52 | AND WE WILL GET BACK TO THE DEBATE. |
| 00:52:55 | HE WILL INTRODUCE HIS JOBS MODEL AND WHO IS LIKELY TO WIN. |
| 00:53:02 | SHALL WE MOVE FROM THE FAT LADY? |
| 00:53:06 | >> WE HAVE THE MOOSE AND THE FAT LADY. |
| 00:53:11 | THAT IS NOT THE SAME. |
| 00:53:21 | >> I AM HAPPY TO BE HERE. |
| 00:53:24 | I WANT TO PRESENT THE MODEL I WORKED ON WITH MY CO-AUTHOR AT HUNTER COLLEGE IN NEW YORK. |
| 00:53:31 | WE CALL THIS THE JOBS BOTTLE. |
| 00:53:36 | THAT IS TO EMPHASIZE A WRINKLE IN THE MODEL. |
| 00:53:40 | STRUCTURALLY, IT IS VERY SIMILAR TO ALAN'S MODEL. |
| 00:53:50 | WE HAVE ADDED A JOBS CREATION VARIABLE TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE FACT THAT JOBS ARE NOT BEING PRODUCED AT THE RATE THEY USED TO BE PRODUCED. |
| 00:54:00 | THIS PICKS UP NOT ONLY THE DEFICIT OF JOBS, BUT TO SOME EXTENT THE INCREASING NOW DISTRIBUTION OF INCOME IN THE COMPANY. |
| 00:54:12 | YOU CAN SEE THIS VERBAL DESCRIPTION OF THE EQUATION. |
| 00:54:16 | IF YOU ESTIMATE THE EQUATION, I AM NOT GOING TO WADE THROUGH ALL OF THAT. |
| 00:54:22 | IT JUST SAYS THAT THE STATISTICAL FIT IS GOOD. |
| 00:54:25 | THIS IS THE FORECAST FOR 2008 FROM THE JOBS MODEL. |
| 00:54:32 | THAT IS A FORECAST FOR THE REPUBLICAN SHARE, WHICH WOULD BE A MCCAIN SHARE OF 43. |
| 00:54:41 | 4%. IF THAT IS CORRECT, THAT IS THE BIGGEST DEFEAT OF ANY INCUMBENT CANDIDATE IN THE POST-WORLD WAR II PERIOD. |
| 00:54:55 | HERE IS THE KICKER. |
| 00:54:57 | WE SPENT A LOT OF TIME AND THINKING ABOUT THIS. |
| 00:55:01 | WE DO NOT THINK THIS IS THE CORRECT FORECAST. |
| 00:55:06 | WHEN JIM PUT THE TABLE AND IT IS IN THIS, WE PUBLISHED TWO FORECASTS. |
| 00:55:14 | OUR PREFERRED FORECAST IS BASED ON A CORRECTION FOR RACE. |
| 00:55:18 | I WANTED TO TALK ABOUT THAT. |
| 00:55:23 | WHAT WE HAVE DONE, ON LIKE ANY OF THE OTHER FORECASTERS, AND I HAVE CHIDED MY DEAR FRIENDS ABOUT THIS, NONE OF THE FORECASTING MODELS CONSIDER THE IMPACT OF RACE. |
| 00:55:36 | WE FELT THAT TO BE SCIENTIFICALLY HONEST, WE HAD TO ADDRESS WHAT WOULD HAPPENED WHEN YOU HAVE A BLACK PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE. |
| 00:55:45 | WE DID NOT BUY THE ARGUMENT THAT THERE WOULD BE NO EFFECT. |
| 00:55:48 | WE THOUGHT THAT THERE WOULD BE AN EFFECT. |
| 00:55:51 | IT WOULD BE HARD TO ASSESS. |
| 00:55:53 | IT HAS TO BE UNDERSTOOD THAT ALL OF THE MODELS TO DATE ARE BASED ON DATA THAT HAVE NO INFORMATION ABOUT THE RACE OF THE CANDIDATE. |
| 00:56:04 | ALL OF THE CANDIDATES HAVE BEEN WHITE. |
| 00:56:07 | WE HAVE NO INFORMATION ON BLACK PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES. |
| 00:56:11 | IT IS UNKNOWN TERRITORY. |
| 00:56:15 | WHEN YOU TEACH GRADUATE STUDENTS HOW TO DO RESEARCH, YOU SAY DO NOT EXTRAPOLATE BEYOND THE RANGE OF YOUR DATA. |
| 00:56:23 | WE HAVE NO DATA ON THE BLACK PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES. |
| 00:56:30 | THIS IS NOT EASY TO FIGURE OUT THE COST OF RACE FOR ALL OF THE OBVIOUS REASONS. |
| 00:56:37 | PEOPLE DO NOT WANT TO ADMIT THEIR RACIAL BIASES IF THEY HAVE THEM. |
| 00:56:46 | WE DID IT -- DID FOUR DAYS EXERCISES. |
| 00:56:58 | -- DATA EXERCISES. |
| 00:57:03 | THE FIRST WAS DONE BY TWO SOCIOLOGISTS AT NYU. |
| 00:57:07 | IN THIS EXPERIMENT, YOU ESSENTIALLY HAD TO HAVE A NATIONAL REPRESENTATIVE SAMPLE. |
| 00:57:14 | HALF OF THE SAMPLE THEY GAVE A LIST OF ISSUES. |
| 00:57:19 | THREE ISSUES ABOUT POLITICS. |
| 00:57:22 | THEY ASKED PEOPLE ABOUT DEFENSE SPENDING. |
| 00:57:26 | SOME STRAIGHTFORWARD POLITICAL ISSUES AND ASKED THEM IF THEY AGREED. |
| 00:57:30 | FOR THE TREATMENT GROUP THEY GIVE THE SAME THREE ISSUES PLUS THE QUESTION, WHICH YOU BE WILLING TO SUPPORT A BLACK CANDID IT? |
| 00:57:40 | -- BLACK CANDID IT -- CANDIDATE? |
| 00:57:50 | THE RESPONDENT ONLY HAS TO TELL THE INTERVIEWER HOW MANY OF THESE ISSUES THEY ARE IN FAVOR OF. |
| 00:57:58 | YOU CAN HIDE YOUR RACISM. |
| 00:58:01 | YOU DO NOT HAVE TO SAY THAT YOU CANNOT SUPPORT A BLACK CANDIDATE. |
| 00:58:06 | YOU WOULD SAY THAT I SUPPORT THREE OF THESE ISSUES OR TWO OF THEM. |
| 00:58:10 | THE ONLY DIFFERENCE WHEN YOU COMPARE THE GROUPS, THE GROUP THAT GOT PAST ABOUT RACE, THE DIFFERENCE IN THE AVERAGE SCORE BETWEEN THE TWO WILL BE THE PERCENTAGE OF PEOPLE WILLING TO SUPPORT A BLACK CANDIDATE. |
| 00:58:24 | THIS IS BRILLIANT RESEARCH DESIGN. |
| 00:58:27 | THESE PEOPLE WERE GRADUATE STUDENTS TO BE COMMENDED FOR THEIR WORK. |
| 00:58:31 | HERE IS WHAT THEY FOUND. |
| 00:58:33 | IN THIS EXPERIMENT THAT ALLOWS PEOPLE TO EXPRESS THEIR RACISM IN PRIVATE SO IT IS ARGUABLY AN ACCURATE MEASURE. |
| 00:58:44 | AMONG VOTERS, 77% OF THE PEOPLE SAID THAT THEY WOULD BE WILLING TO SUPPORT A BLACK CANDIDATE. |
| 00:58:51 | 23% WOULD NOT. |
| 00:58:55 | WE WERE STARTLED BY THAT NUMBER AND WE THOUGHT MAYBE IT WAS A LITTLE HIGH IN TERMS OF THE RACISM. |
| 00:59:04 | WE WANTED TO LOOK AT SOME ACTUAL DATA. |
| 00:59:08 | WE DID A MATCHING EXPERIMENT FOR A STUDY. |
| 00:59:12 | WE SAID, LET'S IMAGINE THAT WE RUN TWO PRIMARIES. |
| 00:59:16 | THEY ARE JUST ALIKE EXCEPT 1 DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY BE CANDID IT IS WHITE AND ONE AND DECANTED IT IS BLACK. |
| 00:59:26 | THOSE OF YOU WHO REMEMBER 2004 -- THE CANDIDATE IS BLACK. |
| 00:59:37 | THE SAME NUMBER OF CANDIDATES IN 2004 AS IN 2008. |
| 00:59:42 | THERE WAS A CLEAR FRONT RUNNER THE YEAR BEFORE THE ELECTION, HOWARD DEAN AND HILLARY CLINTON. |
| 00:59:49 | THE EVENTUAL WINNER FIRST ONE IOWA. |
| 00:59:53 | IN 2004, THE WINNER CAPTURED THE SAME AMOUNT OF THE IOWA VOTE. |
| 01:00:00 | THESE ARE CRITICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN A PRIMARY. |
| 01:00:04 | THE QUESTION IS, HAVING MATCHED THESE PRIMARIES, HOW DID OBAMA DO COMPARED TO JOHN KERRY? |
| 01:00:12 | JOHN KERRY GOT 58. |
| 01:00:16 | 4% AND OBAMA GOT 52. |
| 01:00:20 | 6%. THAT DEFICIT SUGGESTS THAT ABOUT 90% OF THE PEOPLE ARE WILLING TO SUPPORT A BLACK CANDIDATE. |
| 01:00:34 | THERE IS A LOSS OF ABOUT 10%. |
| 01:00:41 | WE TOOK ANOTHER LEAP AND SAID LET'S MODELED THE ACTUAL OBAMA OF VOTE. |
| 01:00:51 | OBAMA HAS BEEN IN THE PRIMARY. |
| 01:00:53 | WE SAID, WE HAVE DATA ON HOW PEOPLE VOTED IN THE PRIMARIES. |
| 01:00:58 | LOOK AT THAT. |
| 01:01:00 | THIS IS THE OBAMA PRIMARY VOTE AS A FUNCTION OF HIS POLL SUPPORT. |
| 01:01:09 | THE POLLS CLOSEST TO HIS RACE AND THEN THERE IS THE JOHN KERRY SUPPORT AND THE STATE. |
| 01:01:15 | THIS MODEL IS DRIVEN BY OBAMA'S POLL RESULTS. |
| 01:01:30 | IF YOU TAKE THIS MODEL AND SAY, HERE IS ANOTHER EXERCISE. |
| 01:01:37 | WE HAVE ACTUAL VOTING RESULTS FOR OBAMA PREDICTED QUITE WELL BY THE POLLS. |
| 01:01:44 | LET'S JUST TAKE THE SAME MODEL AND PROJECT IT ONTO THE NATIONAL SCREEN. |
| 01:01:51 | WE JUST TOOK THE SAME MODEL AND SAID IT, LET'S TAKE OBAMA, THE NATIONAL GALLUP POLL RESULTS AND WE WILL LOOK AT THE JOHN KERRY RESULT FROM THE LAST ELECTION AND WE RECORD WHETHER IT IS A PRIMARY VOTE CONTEST. |
| 01:02:11 | THIS IS DRIVEN BY OBAMA'S NATIONAL POLL SUPPORT. |
| 01:02:16 | THIS GIVES OBAMA A VOTE OF 52. |
| 01:02:23 | 7%. THAT SUGGESTS THAT 93% OF THE PEOPLE ARE WILLING TO VOTE FOR A BLACK CANDIDATE. |
| 01:02:30 | WE WENT BACK TO THE LIST EXPERIMENT AND SAID, THERE IS A PROBLEM WITH THIS EXPERIMENT BECAUSE THE EXPERIMENT WAS DONE WHEN OBAMA WAS JUST COMING ONTO THE SCENE AS A CANDIDATE. |
| 01:02:43 | LET'S LOOK AT PARSONS WHO WOULD NOT BE THINKING ABOUT A BLACK CANDIDATE. |
| 01:02:49 | WE SAID, WHAT ABOUT THE REPUBLICANS? |
| 01:02:52 | WHAT ARE THEY SAYING ABOUT WHETHER THEY WOULD VOTE FOR A BLACK CANDIDATE. |
| 01:02:57 | 80% OF REPUBLICANS SAID THAT THEY WOULD VOTE FOR A BLACK CANDIDATE. |
| 01:03:01 | THAT IS A TRUSTWORTHY ESTIMATE BECAUSE THEY DO NOT HAVE A SPECIFIC CANDIDATE IN MIND. |
| 01:03:08 | IT IS JUST THE NOTION OF VOTING FOR A BLACK PRINT -- BLACK. |
| 01:03:18 | THEY LOOK AT ALL VOTERS AND 77% WOULD VOTE FOR A BLACK CANDIDATE. |
| 01:03:24 | IF YOU LOOK JUST AT THE REPUBLICANS, IT IS 87%. |
| 01:03:30 | WHEN YOU LOOK AT OUR STUDIES YOU WOULD SEE THAT THE ESTIMATE IS 90%. |
| 01:03:35 | IF YOU THEN FIT THAT MODEL TO THE NATIONAL SCENE, YOU SEE IT IS 92%. |
| 01:03:42 | WHAT WE TRY TO DO IS ESTIMATE THE RACIAL COST. |
| 01:03:47 | YOU SEE THAT IT VARIES. |
| 01:03:48 | THE QUESTION IS, WHAT IS THE CORRECT NUMBER? |
| 01:03:52 | WHAT WE DECIDED TO DO TO AVOID CHARGES OF BEING PART RICH RAY WAS TO TAKE THE MEDIAN. |
| 01:04:02 | -- BEING ARBITRARY WAS TO TAKE THE MEDIAN. |
| 01:04:08 | ABOUT 11. |
| 01:04:09 | 5% WILL NOT VOTE FOR A BLACK CANDIDATE. |
| 01:04:11 | YOU HAVE TO MULTIPLIED OUR ORIGINAL FORECAST BY 0. |
| 01:04:18 | 885. YOU GET THE FORECAST FOR OBAMA. |
| 01:04:20 | FOR OBAMA IT IS 58. |
| 01:04:26 | 1%. OUR NUMBER CORRECTED IS 58. |
| 01:04:30 | 1%. THAT IS AS CLOSE AS IT COULD GET. |
| 01:04:37 | LET'S SEE. |
| 01:04:38 | I HAVE FIVE MINUTES? |
| 01:04:40 | IF YOU TAKE THAT 50. |
| 01:04:45 | 1%, THE KEY QUESTION IS, HOW DOES THAT TRANSLATE INTO AN ELECTORAL VOTES? |
| 01:04:50 | WE WROTE A BOOK ON FORECASTING IN 1992 IN WHICH THE DEPENDENT VARIABLE WAS AN ELECTORAL VOTE. |
| 01:04:58 | WE WERE TALKED OUT OF THAT BY OUR COLLEAGUES. |
| 01:05:01 | WE QUIT USING THAT, WE KNOW THAT IS WHAT REALLY COUNTS. |
| 01:05:06 | WE KNOW THAT FROM 2000 WHEN AL GORE WON THE POPULAR VOTE BUT LOST THE ELECTORAL VOTE. |
| 01:05:13 | IF OBAMA GETS 51% OF THE POPULAR VOTE, WHAT WILL HAPPEN? |
| 01:05:18 | THERE IS A VERY STRICT RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN A LOT CORAL VOTE SHARE AND POPULAR VOTE SHARE. |
| 01:05:25 | -- THE ELECTORAL VOTE SHARE AND POPULAR VOTE SHARE. |
| 01:05:31 | IF YOU FALL INTO THIS BERMUDA TRIANGLE, IN USE, EVEN THOUGH YOU WIN THE POPULAR VOTE. |
| 01:05:40 | ANY CANDIDATE WHO GETS BETWEEN 50-51% OF THE POPULAR VOTE WILL LOSE THE ELECTORAL VOTE. |
| 01:05:48 | THE STATISTICAL EFFECT ON THAT IS ALMOST PERFECT. |
| 01:05:52 | THERE IS A VERY AWKWARD ZONE THAT IF OBAMA FELL INTO WHAT HE WOULD LOSE. |
| 01:05:59 | THAT BRINGS US TO THE MODEL THAT WAS PUBLISHED IN THE PAPER. |
| 01:06:03 | I WANT TO MAKE A BRIEF COMMENT ABOUT WHAT HAS HAPPENED SINCE THEN. |
| 01:06:16 | THE QUESTION OF THE CAMPAIGN IS BY -- AND BY STICKING WITH THE 50. |
| 01:06:23 | 1%? WHAT ABOUT THE BAILOUT? |
| 01:06:24 | WHAT ABOUT THE ECONOMIC MELTDOWN. |
| 01:06:27 | ALL OF THESE MODELS HAVE ERROR. |
| 01:06:34 | OUR EDUCATED GUESS IS THAT 52% IS NOW THE NUMBER. |
| 01:06:42 | THIS IS NOT PUBLISHED ANYWHERE. |
| 01:06:45 | IN LIGHT OF WHAT HAS HAPPENED, IT IS 52%. |
| 01:06:52 | FIRST OFF, I HAVE TO AGREE WITH ALAN, THIS IS A STRICT ECONOMIC VOTING MATTER. |
| 01:06:59 | WHEN THE ECONOMY GOES IN THE TANK, THE PARTY IN POWER GETS BLAMED. |
| 01:07:05 | THIS IS OVERRIDING THE RACIST VOTE. |
| 01:07:09 | IT IS ONLY GOING TO BE 52 BECAUSE THERE IS STILL A LOT OF RACISM THERE. |
| 01:07:15 | IF YOU TAKE THIS MODEL AND YOU LOOK AT 52%, IF YOU PUT THE CURRENT NUMBERS IN THE POLLS WHICH ARE ABOUT 51%, IT WOULD GENERATE A 52% SUPPORT FOR OBAMA CURRENT I THINK THE 52%, IN LIGHT OF WHAT HAPPENED, IS A MORE REASONABLE GUESS. |
| 01:07:46 | IT IS WITHIN OUR MARGIN OF ERROR. |
| 01:07:49 | WHEN PEOPLE ASK ABOUT THE CAMPAIGNS, THAT IS ONE OF THE REASONS WHY I SAY THAT THIS IS THE PERFECT. |
| 01:07:57 | WE KNOW THE MODELS ARE ROLLED OUT IN THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER. |
| 01:08:01 | WE KNOW THINGS CAN HAPPEN BETWEEN THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER AND THE ELECTION. |
| 01:08:05 | WE KNOW THAT. |
| 01:08:07 | THAT DOES NOT MEAN THAT THE MODELS ARE INVALID. |
| 01:08:11 | THAT IS BUILT INTO THE PROCESS. |
| 01:08:13 | YOU DO NOT NEED TO THROW THESE MODELS AT BECAUSE OF THE MELTDOWN. |
| 01:08:18 | IT IS SOMETHING THAT OCCUR THAT IS WITHIN THE MARGIN OF ERROR. |
| 01:08:23 | I THINK THAT 52% WILL BE A VERY CLOSE FORECAST. |
| 01:08:29 | >> BEFORE WE GO TO THE AUDIENCE, I WOULD LIKE TO ASK A SPECIFIC QUESTION. |
| 01:08:37 | WITHIN THE QUESTION YOU CAN REFUSE EACH OTHER. |
| 01:08:41 | I THINK EVERYONE IN THE AUDIENCE WOULD LIKE TO KNOW ABOUT, WHEN DO PEOPLE MAKE UP THEIR MINDS ABOUT HOW THEY ARE GOING TO VOTE? |
| 01:08:51 | THE CANDIDATES ARE GOING FOR SOME SWING VOTERS THAT HAVE NOT MADE UP THEIR MINDS. |
| 01:08:57 | WHAT IS THE IMPACT OF EARLY VOTING ON THIS HUGE REGISTRATION FOR THE REPUBLICANS. |
| 01:09:06 | IS ALL OF THAT REFLECTED IN YOUR MODEL? |
| 01:09:11 | FINALLY, THIS IS ONE OF THOSE EUROPEAN QUESTIONS THAT HAS THREE PARTS. |
| 01:09:22 | YOU COMMENTED ON THIS AT THE VERY END. |
| 01:09:26 | THE ACTUAL VOTE IS PREDICTED BY THIS. |
| 01:09:29 | WE ARE FIGHTING THIS AND 13 BATTLEGROUND STATES. |
| 01:09:34 | HAVE YOU OR ANYONE ELSE DONE STATE LEVEL ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT IN THAT STATE AS WELL AS THE OTHER FACTORS AND THE POLLS IN THE STATES? |
| 01:09:46 | WHAT DOES THAT SAY ABOUT THIS ELECTION? |
| 01:09:50 | NOT THE NATIONAL, BUT THE BATTLEGROUND STATE PREDICTION. |
| 01:09:54 | WHEN DO PEOPLE MAKE UP THEIR MINDS. |
| 01:09:59 | WE KNOW IN POLITICAL SCIENCE THAT THERE IS SOME LITERATURE ON THIS. |
| 01:10:03 | THE PERCENTAGE OF THE UNDECIDED. |
| 01:10:06 | I THINK THAT MIGHT BE USEFUL TO KNOW. |
| 01:10:10 | >> THE STRICTLY UNDECIDED IS DOWN TO 5% OR 6%. |
| 01:10:16 | THERE IS A LARGER PERCENTAGE THAT FALL INTO THIS POTENTIALLY MOVABLE CATEGORY WHICH TENDS TO EXAGGERATE THE AMOUNT OF -- POTENTIAL MOVEMENT THAT IS REALLY OUT THERE. |
| 01:10:28 | EVEN THE 6% THAT ARE UNDECIDED, WE KNOW THAT IF THEY ARE TRULY UNDECIDED, THEY ARE LIKELY TO SPLIT THEIR VOTE OR LEAN A LITTLE BIT MORE TOWARDS THE CANDIDATE WHO IS FAVORED BY THE NATIONAL POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT. |
| 01:10:47 | I DO NOT THINK THAT IS GOING TO CHANGE THE OUTCOME. |
| 01:10:51 | IT IS A SMALL ENOUGH SURE THAT I DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE A BIG DEAL. |
| 01:10:56 | >> THE POLLS GET MORE ACCURATE AS TO GET CLOSER TO THE ELECTION, RIGHT? |
| 01:11:01 | >> HIS STARKLY THEY DO. |
| 01:11:03 | EVEN AT THE END YOU NEED TO DISCOUNT THE FRONT RUNNER'S LEAD. |
| 01:11:08 | THINGS EVEN UP MORE EVEN IN THE LAST WEEK. |
| 01:11:12 | >> I WANT TO CHALLENGE THAT SLIGHTLY. |
| 01:11:15 | >> NOT ALWAYS. |
| 01:11:17 | >> WHEN THEY DO NOT IS WHEN THERE IS A POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT THAT IS EXTREMELY TOXIC FOR ONE PARTY. |
| 01:11:25 | THE BEST EXAMPLE OF THAT WAS 1980 WHEN THE LATE POLLS HAD JIMMY CARTER VERY CLOSE TO RONALD REAGAN. |
| 01:11:33 | THE FINAL GALLUP POLL HAD REAGAN LEADING CARTER BY THREE POINTS. |
| 01:11:37 | SOME OTHER POLLS HAD CARTER EVEN OR SLIGHTLY AHEAD. |
| 01:11:41 | THAT WAS AN ELECTION THAT WAS SIMILAR TO THIS ONE. |
| 01:11:45 | IT WAS AN INCUMBENT RUNNING. |
| 01:11:46 | IT WAS AN ELECTION IN WHICH THE POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT WAS BAD FOR ONE PARTY. |
| 01:11:53 | THE POLLS MAKE IT LOOK LIKE A CLOSE ELECTION AND IN THE END IT WAS NOT. |
| 01:11:57 | THAT IS WHAT WE HAVE BEEN LOOKING AT FROM THE VERY BEGINNING. |
| 01:12:01 | >> IN MOST CASES, THAT TOXIC ENVIRONMENT HAS INFLUENCE PEOPLE TO MOVE ONE WAY OR ANOTHER. |
| 01:12:09 | 1980 WAS AN UNUSUAL YEAR BECAUSE THERE WAS THE LATE MOVEMENT TO REAGAN. |
| 01:12:16 | IN 2004 THERE WAS THIS IDEA THAT THERE WOULD BE A MOVEMENT TO THE CHALLENGER. |
| 01:12:22 | DRAWING FROM CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS RESEARCH, PEOPLE WOULD BE HOLDING OF VOTING FOR THE INCUMBENT AND THEY WOULD BE MOVING TO THE CHALLENGER. |
| 01:12:31 | THAT APPLIES AND CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS, BUT NOT IN THAT PRESIDENTIAL CONTESTS. |
| 01:12:39 | THERE TENDS TO BE AN EVEN SPLIT AT THE END UP WITH SOME EXCEPTIONS. |
| 01:12:45 | LET ME GET BACK TO THE MOOSE AND THE FAT LADY. |
| 01:12:54 | FOR THESE MODELS TO BE CREDIBLE, YOU HAVE TO KNOW, HOW DO YOU GET FROM THE FORECAST TO THE VOTE? |
| 01:13:02 | THEY HAVE TO HAVE SOME SORT OF STORY OR THEORY THAT REALLY TAKES YOU FROM WHAT IS IN THE MODELS TO THE ACTUAL VOTE. |
| 01:13:13 | THAT IS TOUGH TO DO FOR THE RETROSPECT OF MODELS. |
| 01:13:18 | THEY DO NOT REALLY EXPLAIN WHY GIVEN THE APPALLINGLY LOW APPROVAL RATINGS THAT PRESIDENT BUSH HAD FOR THE ENTIRE YEAR, THEY DO NOT EXPLAIN WHY MCCAIN WAS IN THE GAME BEFORE THE CONVENTIONS. |
| 01:13:39 | WHY THE POLLS WERE ESSENTIALLY TIED ONCE YOU CONSIDER THE REGISTERED VOTERS. |
| 01:13:44 | EVEN IF YOU DO NOT CONSIDER THEM TIED, MCCAIN WAS VERY CLOSE TO OBAMA'S NUMBERS. |
| 01:13:51 | HE CAME OUT OF THE CONVENTIONS OF WITH THE LEAD. |
| 01:13:56 | YOU SEE THAT MCCAIN HELD A LEAD INTO THE SECOND WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. |
| 01:14:03 | I DO NOT THINK THE RETROSPECTIVE MODELS EXPLAIN THAT. |
| 01:14:08 | TRADITIONALLY, IF YOU LOOK AT THE HISTORY OF THIS, PRESIDENT BUSH'S JULY APPROVAL RATINGS WERE RIGHT AT THE BOTTO AT 31%. |
| 01:14:18 | IN PAST YEARS, IF YOU HAD HAD A PRESIDENTIAL -- A PRESIDENT WITH APPROVAL RATINGS OF OVER 46%, IN JULY YOU WORK AHEAD IN THE SEPTEMBER POLLS NINE OUT OF NINE TIMES. |
| 01:14:35 | IN NINE OUT OF THOSE NINE ELECTIONS. |
| 01:14:38 | IF YOU HAD APPROVAL RATINGS UNDER 46% IN JULY, THE IN PARTY CANDIDATE WAS BELOW 40% IN THE POLLS. |
| 01:14:52 | THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THAT WAS THIS YEAR WHERE MCCAIN HAD 53% IN THE POST CONVENTION POLLS, DESPITE PRESIDENT BUSH HAVING THESE ANEMIC APPROVAL RATINGS AT 31%. |
| 01:15:08 | I HAVE AN EXPLANATION FOR THAT. |
| 01:15:12 | I DO NOT THINK THE RETROSPECTIVE MODELS DO. |
| 01:15:15 | THEY WERE WRITING EARLY ON THAT IT WAS A MESS AND THAT THIS WOULD BE A CLOSE ELECTION PRINT -- MYTH THAT THIS WOULD BE A CLOSE ELECTION. |
| 01:15:26 | IT WAS A CLOSE ELECTION UNTIL THE FINANCIAL CRISIS HIT. |
| 01:15:32 | YOU SEE IN THE POLLS THAT THE FLOOR JUST DROPPED OUT. |
| 01:15:37 | >> THE MOOSE IN THE ROOM IS THE RACE QUESTION. |
| 01:15:41 | THE EXPLANATION FOR WHY MCCAIN WAS RUNNING NECK-AND-NECK WITH GO BACK -- WITH SEN. |
| 01:15:47 | OBAMA: DESPITE THE FACT THAT THE ECONOMY WAS IN THE TANK WAS RACISM. |
| 01:15:55 | THE FINANCIAL CRISIS PUSHED ENOUGH RACIST VOTERS INTO THE YES COLUMN FOR DEMOCRATS. |
| 01:16:02 | THE ECONOMY TRUMP TO RAISE. |
| 01:16:04 | THAT IS NOT ONLY POSSIBLE, -- WE HAVE ESTIMATED ABOUT 6%-7% PENALTY THAT IS THE PENALTY FOR A BLACK CANDIDATE. |
| 01:16:19 | THAT IS NOT JUST OUR NUMBER. |
| 01:16:22 | THEY DID A MAJOR PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY. |
| 01:16:26 | THEY RELEASED THE RESULTS LAST MONTH HE GETS THE SAME NUMBER. |
| 01:16:34 | THESE NUMBERS ARE ON BALANCE. |
| 01:16:36 | YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT ALL OF THE PEOPLE, HOW THEY ARE GOING TO VOTE ON BALANCE. |
| 01:16:42 | IT IS A 7% LOSS. |
| 01:16:46 | IT WAS NECK AND NECK UNTIL THE ECONOMY COLLAPSED AND THAT IS WHAT IS GOING TO WIN IT FOR OBAMA. |
| 01:16:54 | >> LET ME SAY ONE THING ABOUT THIS RACE PENALTY. |
| 01:16:58 | IF THAT IS THE CASE, THE RACISTS HAVE BEEN GETTING BEHIND OBAMA IN THE LAST FEW WEEKS. |
| 01:17:05 | I THINK THE DATA SHOWS VERY CLEARLY THAT THE CHANGE HAS BEEN DEMOCRATS ARE GETTING BEHIND OBAMA. |
| 01:17:12 | IT IS NOT BASED ON RACE. |
| 01:17:15 | THIS IS PARTISANSHIP AT WORK. |
| 01:17:18 | THERE IS A DEMOCRATIC ADVANTAGE ALL ALONG. |
| 01:17:21 | IT WAS EVIDENT IN THE POLLS FOR SEVERAL YEARS. |
| 01:17:25 | THE ONLY MOMENT AT WHICH IT APPEARED TO DISSIPATE WAS IN THAT POLL AFTER THE REPUBLICAN CONVENTION. |
| 01:17:33 | IT IS NOT RACE. |
| 01:17:35 | >> YOU HAVE BEEN VERY PATIENT. |
| 01:17:38 | RIGHT HERE. |
| 01:17:39 | CAN YOU STAND UP AND SAY WHO YOU ARE? |
| 01:17:45 | >> I HAVE TWO QUESTIONS. |
| 01:17:48 | THE FIRST IS, SINCE OF RIGHTS AND REALIGNMENT, ROUGHLY 95% OF AFRICAN-AMERICAN VOTERS HAVE SIDED WITH THE DEMOCRATS. |
| 01:17:58 | IT IS EASY TO ASSUME THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE VOTERS WHO WOULD NOT BE TOLERANT OF A BLACK PRESIDENT ARE LIKELY TO BE REPUBLICAN VOTERS. |
| 01:18:07 | I WONDER HOW YOU FACTOR THAT IN. |
| 01:18:10 | MY SECOND QUESTION WAS ABOUT THE BERMUDA TRIANGLE. |
| 01:18:13 | YOU SAID THAT CANDIDATE THAT WINS THE POPULAR VOTE AND LOSES THE ELECTORAL VOTE, THAT WOULD LOGICALLY MEAN THAT THE CANDIDATE OF THESE POPULAR SUPPORT AND GAIN ELECTORAL VOTES. |
| 01:18:26 | I WONDER HOW THAT WORKS. |
| 01:18:37 | >> I WOULD NEVER SAY THAT ALL OF THE RACISTS ARE IN THE REPUBLICAN PARTY. |
| 01:18:42 | THE DATA IS CLEAR THAT THERE ARE RACISTS EVERYWHERE. |
| 01:18:49 | I THINK THAT WHEN SOMEONE IS VOTING, EVEN SOMEONE THAT IS AN IN TOLERANT PERSON, THAT IS PROBABLY NOT THE ONLY THING THEY CARE ABOUT. |
| 01:19:01 | WHEN THE ECONOMY COLLAPSES, THAT MIGHT TRUMP THEIR RACISM. |
| 01:19:05 | THIS IS A BIG CONFUSION. |
| 01:19:08 | IT IS TRUE THAT THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE AND THE STATES CHOOSE, THOSE ARE THE VOTES TO ACCOUNT. |
| 01:19:17 | IT IS ALMOST A PERFECT CORRELATION BETWEEN POPULAR VOTE SHARE AND A LOCAL VOTE SHARE. |
| 01:19:23 | IT IS A CORRELATION OF 0. |
| 01:19:27 | 97. THAT IS A HUGE THING. |
| 01:19:29 | THAT MEANS THAT IF YOU KNOW THE POPULAR VOTE SHARE, YOU KNOW THAT THEY ARE GOING TO WENT EXCEPT IN A POPULAR -- TINY LITTLE SPACE. |
| 01:19:38 | ALL OF THE POINTS ARE ALONG THE LINE AND THE POINTS BETWEEN 50 AND 51 ARE ALONG THE LINE. |
| 01:19:46 | THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST TOTALLY NOT BIASED EXCEPT A THERE IS THAT ONE PERCENTAGE POINT WHERE IT IS BIASED. |
| 01:19:54 | THAT DOES EXIST. |
| 01:19:56 | THE AL GORE RESULT THE NOT CHANGE THAT. |
| 01:19:59 | IT FALLS RIGHT ON THAT SPOT. |
| 01:20:01 | IT IS STILL THERE. |
| 01:20:05 | IF OBAMA GETS ANYTHING LESS THAN 51, HE WILL PROBABLY LOSE. |
| 01:20:10 | >> LET'S GO TO THE AUDIENCE. |
| 01:20:14 | >> I HAVE A TECHNICAL QUESTION. |
| 01:20:19 | THE TECHNICAL QUESTION IS, I ASSUMED THAT THIS IS THE REPUBLICAN AND DEMOCRATIC VOTE AND THROWING OUT THE PERCENTAGES OF THE MINORITY PARTY VOTE SO THE REAL PERCENTAGES WOULD BE 49 AND 48. |
| 01:20:33 | THE REAL QUESTION IS, YOUR MODELS AND OTHER MODELS HAVE BEEN AVAILABLE FOR 20 YEARS. |
| 01:20:40 | HAVE YOU SEEN ANYTHING SETS -- THAT SUGGESTS THAT PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGNS KNOW ABOUT THE MODELS AND ACCOUNT FOR THEM IN THEIR CAMPAIGN STRATEGIES. |
| 01:20:50 | >> I KNOW THEY KNOW ABOUT THE MODELS. |
| 01:20:56 | >> OBAMA SELECTED A CHANGE MODEL. |
| 01:20:59 | >> HE WAS OBVIOUSLY READING MY MODEL. |
| 01:21:03 | >> LET ME GO TO DECIDE. |
| 01:21:06 | YES, RIGHT HERE IN THE FRONT ROW. |
| 01:21:11 | >> I HAVE A QUESTION. |
| 01:21:13 | I KNOW THAT WE GENERALLY DO NOT GIVE TOO MUCH CREDIT TO VICE- PRESIDENTIAL SELECTION CHOICES. |
| 01:21:20 | IT SEEMS TO ME THAT BEFORE THE CONVENTION HE WOULD TRADE ON HIS MAVERICK IMAGE AND HIS CONVENTION RUN AND THE BUMP MIGHT HAVE BEEN AS A RESULT OF THE SARAH PALIN PACT. |
| 01:21:34 | THAT ALONG WITH THE ECONOMY HAS REALLY TAKEN A NOSEDIVE. |
| 01:21:41 | IT -- PER SUPPORT AND SUPPORT FOR HER, THERE HAS BEEN A GREAT DEAL OF CONCERN FOR HER. |
| 01:21:48 | CAN YOU TALK ABOUT HOW WE MIGHT ACCOUNT FOR THAT AND THE MODELS? |
| 01:21:55 | >> HOW DO YOU COMFORT SARAH PALIN IN THE MODELS? |
| 01:21:58 | >> I THINK YOU ARE RIGHT THAT THE BIGGER BUMP THAT JOHN MCCAIN RECEIVED CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO HIS SELECTION OF SARAH PALIN. |
| 01:22:11 | I DO NOT THINK IT IS SO MUCH JUST ABOUT SARAH PALIN. |
| 01:22:16 | IT COMMUNICATED TO ALLOW A LOT OF REPUBLICANS IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT MCCAIN. |
| 01:22:23 | THAT MCCAIN WAS REALLY NOT SUCH A RENEGADE THAT HE WAS A REPUBLICAN IN NAME ONLY. |
| 01:22:31 | HE REALLY WAS ONE OF THEM. |
| 01:22:35 | A MODERATE CONSERVATIVE, BUT STILL A CONSERVATIVE. |
| 01:22:38 | THAT WAS PART OF THE INITIAL BUMP. |
| 01:22:41 | SOME OF THE BUMP ALWAYS WEARS AWAY. |
| 01:22:45 | THAT IS WHY IN MY MODEL ONLY A QUARTER OF THAT PUBLIC OPINION CARRIES OVER TO THE ELECTION. |
| 01:22:53 | ABOUT 45% OF THE PRE CONVENTION PUBLIC OPINION SURVIVES OR IS STABLE. |
| 01:23:00 | YOU WOULD EXPECT A GOOD PART OF THAT PALE AND ASSOCIATED CONVENTION BUMP TO WEAR AWAY. |
| 01:23:08 | -- SARAH PALIN ASSOCIATED CONVENTION BUMP TO WEAR AWAY. |
| 01:23:13 | I THINK IT IS HARD TO UNDERESTIMATE THAT IMPACT. |
| 01:23:17 | >> YOU HAD YOUR HAND UP. |
| 01:23:23 | >> THIS HAS NOT BEEN A GREAT YEAR FOR GALLOPED ACCORDING TO MANY OF THE OVER POLLS. |
| 01:23:30 | I AM WONDERING IF YOU ARE OVER COMMITTED TO GALLOPED -- GALLUP? |
| 01:23:43 | MANY OF POLLS PROJECTED, BUT IT TIGHTENED. |
| 01:23:49 | I WANT TO KNOW IF YOU MODIFIED YOUR MODEL SINCE 2000 WHEN YOU AND I DID SOME BUSINESS AND YOUR PROJECTION TURNED OUT TO BE MILDLY OVER PROJECTED? |
| 01:24:02 | >> THE REASON I USE GALLUP IS BECAUSE THEY GO BACK TO 1948. |
| 01:24:11 | I ESTIMATED THE MODEL USING THE CLEAR POLITICS AVERAGE. |
| 01:24:16 | THAT BROUGHT THE PREDICTION DOWN A LITTLE BIT. |
| 01:24:20 | IT WAS STILL PREDICTING A MCCAIN VICTORY. |
| 01:24:24 | SOMETHING ON THE ORDER OF 51% -- 51. |
| 01:24:31 | 5%-52%. THE CLEAR POLITICS AVERAGE, IT DID SHOW AND MCCAIN BE THE LAST THING UNTIL SEPTEMBER 15 OR 16TH. |
| 01:24:43 | IT WENT A LITTLE BIT BEYOND WHAT GALLUP HAD AT THE TIME. |
| 01:24:48 | THERE HAS BEEN A STUDY OF THE POLLS AND HOUSE THE FACTS. |
| 01:24:52 | WHAT WE DO NOT KNOW IT IS THE IMPORTANT VARIATION IN HOW IT VARIES FROM THE VOTE. |
| 01:24:58 | WE DO NOT KNOW THAT UNTIL AFTER THE FACT. |
| 01:25:02 | I WILL STICK WITH GALLUP BASED ON THAT TRACK RECORD. |
| 01:25:06 | IT IS CONSISTENT WITH IN MY MODEL. |
| 01:25:09 | ANY BIAS THAT GALLUP MIGHT HAVE WOULD BE REFLECTED IN THE ESTIMATION OF THE MODEL. |
| 01:25:17 | >> BEFORE YOU ANSWER, I WOULD LIKE TO ADD ANOTHER ELEMENT TO THE QUESTION. |
| 01:25:24 | WHY GDP AND ECONOMIC GROWTH? |
| 01:25:27 | WHY NOT LOOK AT CONSUMER CONFIDENCE AND PERCEPTIONS OF HOW THINGS ARE GOING RATHER THAN THE ACTUAL FIGURE? |
| 01:25:34 | >> THAT IS A GOOD QUESTION. |
| 01:25:37 | BOB DID THE FORECASTING COMMUNITY A GREAT SERVICE BY PUTTING US ON THE FRONT PAGE OF THE POST BEFORE THE 2000 ELECTION. |
| 01:25:45 | WE THOUGHT IT WAS A GREAT SERVICE. |
| 01:25:51 | OVERALL, THE FORECASTERS, I WILL TELL YOU THIS BECAUSE JIM WILL INTERRUPT AND SAY THAT HIS MODEL WAS NOT SO BAD. |
| 01:26:00 | SOME OF THE MODELS WORE OFF. |
| 01:26:02 | A GENERAL REMARKED -- THE FORECAST COMMUNITY THAT BEAT UP BAD FOR THIS. |
| 01:26:10 | EVERYONE WAS OFF THAT YEAR. |
| 01:26:12 | THE POLLS WERE OFF. |
| 01:26:14 | WORLD WIDE OPINION FROM FORECASTERS, 49 OUT OF 50 SAID AL GORE WOULD WIN. |
| 01:26:21 | THERE WAS A LOT OF PROBLEMS WITH FORECASTING AND IT WAS NOT JUST WITH US. |
| 01:26:27 | THE VALUE OF THIS IS THE FOLLOWING, YOU LEARN MORE WHEN YOU MAKE MISTAKES. |
| 01:26:34 | WITH THIS WORK, THESE ARE EXPERIMENTS. |
| 01:26:39 | MOST POLITICAL SCIENTISTS EXPLAIN THINGS AFTER THEY HAPPENED. |
| 01:26:43 | WHAT WE TRY TO DO IS TRY TO TELL YOU WHAT WILL HAPPEN BEFORE IT HAPPENS. |
| 01:26:49 | THAT IS A LOT HARDER. |
| 01:26:50 | WHEN YOU MAKE THAT EFFORT, YOU LEARN SOMETHING. |
| 01:26:54 | WHAT WE LEARN FROM THAT EXPERIENCE -- THERE IS SOMETHING GOING ON THERE. |
| 01:26:59 | WE HAVE TO FIGURE OUT WHAT IT WAS. |
| 01:27:02 | HERE IS WHAT WE MISSED. |
| 01:27:04 | IT HAS BEEN BUILT INTO HIS MODEL. |
| 01:27:07 | IF THE INCUMBENT CANDIDATE IS NOT THE PRESIDENT, THE ECONOMY DOES NOT HAVE AS BIG OF AN EFFECT. |
| 01:27:17 | THAT AFFECT WAS MUTED IN GOAL -- AL GORE'S CASE. |
| 01:27:24 | THE SECOND THING WE DID IT WAS THE VARIABLE CALL A JOBS CREATION. |
| 01:27:30 | SINCE THE BUSH YEARS, THE COUNTRY HAS NOT GENERATED THE AMOUNT OF JOBS THAT IT USED TO APART FROM ECONOMIC GROWTH. |
| 01:27:39 | WHEN WE ADDED THE NOTION OF ECONOMIC JOB CREATION, THAT BROUGHT THINGS INTO LINE. |
| 01:27:45 | WE TRIED TO SAY, WHAT WOULD BRING THAT RESULT WITHIN NORMAL RANGE? |
| 01:27:50 | THOSE THINGS DID? |
| 01:27:53 | -THOSE THINGS DID. |
| 01:27:55 | THIS WAS PART OF THE LEARNING PROCESS. |
| 01:27:57 | >> SOME OF US HAD A PRETTY GOOD FORECAST IN 2000. |
| 01:28:02 | WHY SOME OF THE MODELS MISSED WAS THE TIME FOR CHANGE FACTOR THAT BUSH WAS ABLE TO CAPITALIZE ON. |
| 01:28:10 | YOGI BERRA SAID THAT MAKING PREDICTIONS IS HARD TO MUCH ESPECIALLY WHEN THEY INVOLVE THE FUTURE. |
| 01:28:17 | LET'S NOT THROW ALL OF THE FORECASTING MODELS INTO THE SAME -- THERE HAVE BEEN SOME BAD MODELS. |
| 01:28:26 | PEOPLE CHANGE THEM DRASTICALLY. |
| 01:28:28 | SOME OF US ARE PRETTY HAPPY WITH THE WAY OUR MODELS HAVE DONE. |
| 01:28:32 | >> HAVE YOU RUN IT WITH CONSUMER CONFIDENCE? |
| 01:28:36 | >> WE CANNOT BECAUSE WE DO NOT HAVE CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DATA GOING BACK VERY FAR. |
| 01:28:42 | IT ONLY GOES BACK 10 OR 20 YEARS. |
| 01:28:46 | IT DOES NOT GO BACK TO THE 1940'S OR 1950'S. |
| 01:28:50 | >> ANOTHER REASON NOT TO USE A SUBJECT OF THE INDICATOR IS IN PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL. |
| 01:28:57 | WHAT YOU ARE REALLY LOOKING FOR IS WHAT PEOPLE WILL BE REACTING TO IN BETWEEN THE TIME THAT YOU MAKE THE FORECAST AND ELECTION DAY. |
| 01:29:09 | YOU WANT THE HARD INFORMATION THAT THEY HAVE YET TO REACT TO BUT WILL BE REACTING TO. |
| 01:29:22 | >> LET'S GO TO RIGHT HERE. |
| 01:29:29 | >> I INCURIOUS, YOU MENTIONED THAT YOU ARE RANGE BY IDEOLOGIES. |
| 01:29:34 | HOW DO YOU THINK THEY PLAY INTO YOUR MODELS IF AT ALL? |
| 01:29:38 | >> 0. |
| 01:29:39 | THAT IS ONE OF THE NICE THINGS ABOUT HAVING YOUR FORECAST IN PRINTED YEARS IN ADVANCE. |
| 01:29:47 | YOU DO NOT KNOW WHOSE OCHS IS GOING TO BE GORED BY IT. |
| 01:29:52 | . OX IS GOING TO BE GORED BY IT. |
| 01:29:58 | >> I WANTED TO COMMENT ON THE NEW SMATTER ONE MORE TIME. |
| 01:30:02 | WE MIGHT HAVE HAD A PRESIDENTIAL MOMENT AND ONE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE HANDLE THAT THERE RATIONALLY AND THE OTHER ONE HANDLED IT THOUGHTFULLY. |
| 01:30:16 | I WONDER IF YOU WOULD COMMENT ON THAT. |
| 01:30:19 | >> I TAKE IT YOU ARE REFERRING TO THE SUSPENSION OF THE CAMPAIGN. |
| 01:30:23 | I AM SURE THAT AS A COMPONENT OF IT. |
| 01:30:30 | IF YOU FOLLOW THE CHART WITH GALLUP AND THE REAL CLEAR POLITICS IS BASICALLY THE SAME THING. |
| 01:30:38 | A CONTINUAL DROP ALL OF THE WAY THROUGH SEPTEMBER AND INTO EARLY OCTOBER. |
| 01:30:43 | I DO NOT THINK IT WAS ANYONE IN OR THE DEBATES OR ANYTHING LIKE THAT. |
| 01:30:50 | IT WAS A CONSTANT DRUMBEAT OF A CRISIS THAT WE'RE SHOWING UP IN PEOPLE'S RETIREMENT STATEMENTS AND SO FORTH. |
| 01:30:57 | YOU DO NOT LOSE A QUARTER OF THE VALUE OF THE STOCK MARKET IN A MONTH WITHOUT PEOPLE TAKING NOTICE AND LEVELING SOME BLAME. |
| 01:31:06 | >> WHAT I THINK THE CRISIS REALLY DID IS I DO NOT THINK IT FUNDAMENTALLY ALTER THE TRAJECT -- PROJECTION. |
| 01:31:15 | IT CHANGED THE FOCUS IN THE MEDIA AND THE ECONOMY ON THE ELECTION. |
| 01:31:21 | THE POLL SHOWED OBAMA AND THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY HAD A SUBSTANTIAL ADVANTAGE ON THAT ISSUE. |
| 01:31:27 | IT PUT THE ECONOMY AT RIGHT BACK FRONT AND CENTER ON THAT ISSUE. |
| 01:31:33 | >> I COULD NOT DISAGREE MORE WITH THAT. |
| 01:31:36 | IF YOU LOOK AT WHERE PEOPLE STOOD BEFORE THE CONVENTIONS AND AFTER THE CONVENTION, THE ECONOMY WAS NOT SO GREAT. |
| 01:31:46 | DESPITE THAT, MCCAIN, HE WAS EVEN AND THEN HE WAS AHEAD. |
| 01:31:51 | >> FOR A WEEK. |
| 01:32:00 | >> -- I WANT TO THANK THE AMERICAN POLITICAL SCIENCE ASSOCIATION. |
| 01:32:05 | WE MAY HAVE THESE PRESENTATIONS ON YOUR WEB SITE. |
| 01:32:09 | GREAT. |
| 01:32:12 | IT IS IN A MAGAZINE THAT IS DISTRIBUTED HERE. |
| 01:32:16 | IF YOU'D JOINED THE AMERICAN POLITICAL SCIENCE ASSOCIATION YOU GET THIS AND OTHER PUBLICATIONS. |
| 01:32:23 | I THINK WE HAVE HAD SOME AGREEMENT THAT CAMPAIGNS MADE A DIFFERENCE. |
| 01:32:34 | WE HAVE AN INSTITUTE THAT IS 25 YEARS OLD AT AMERICAN UNIVERSITY. |
| 01:32:38 | A GOOD DISCUSSION OF THE RACIAL BIAS THAT MAY OCCUR. |
| 01:32:43 | I THINK WE HAVE SOME AGREEMENT THAT THIS IS NOT A NORMAL ELECTION AND THAT WAS A NON INCUMBENT ELECTION. |
| 01:32:52 | THE FIRST AFRICAN AMERICAN AND THE MAVERICK REPUBLICAN PALIN AND ECONOMY HITTING SO HARD THAT IT MAKES A DIFFERENT THAN MOST CAMPAIGNS. |
| 01:33:03 | YOUR FORECAST MODELS DO PRETTY WELL EXCEPT FOR MAYBE JIM. |
| 01:33:08 | THANK YOU ALL FOR COMING. |
| 01:33:11 | THE THREE PANELISTS ARE HERE TO ANSWER QUESTIONS FOR OTHERS. |
| 01:33:15 | WE WOULD LIKE TO INTERVIEW THEM. |
| 01:33:22 | THANK YOU VERY MUCH. |
| 01:33:26 | [CAPTIONING PERFORMED BY NATIONAL CAPTIONING INSTITUTE] |
| 01:33:29 | [CAPTIONS COPYRIGHT NATIONAL CABLE SATELLITE CORP. |
| 01:33:31 | 2008] |
| 01:34:01 | >> THE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES CAMPAIGNED IN OHIO YESTERDAY. |
| 01:34:05 | SENATOR OBAMA'S RALLY IN CANTON IS NEXT FOLLOWED BY A RALLY FOR MCCAIN. |
| 01:34:14 | "WASHINGTON JOURNAL" IS LIVE AT 7:00 A. |
| 01:34:19 | M. EASTERN INCLUDING DEBT TED STEVENS CONVICTION. |
| 01:34:26 | LIVE IT 10:00 A. |
| 01:34:27 | M., A HEARING ON HOW SMALL BUSINESSES ARE BEING AFFECTED BY THE ECONOMIC DOWNTURN. |
| 01:34:43 | >> C-SPAN, CREATED IN 1979 BY THE CABLE TELEVISION INDUSTRY. |
| 01:34:48 | WITH NO COMMERCIALS, HOW IS C- SPAN FUNDED? |
| 01:34:52 | >> PUBLIC FUNDING. |
| 01:34:53 | >> PRIVATE INDIVIDUALS. |
| 01:34:56 | >> I BELIEVE IT IS PUBLICLY FUNDED. |
| 01:34:58 | >> I HAVE NOT SEEN TELETHONS. |
| >> |
Loading...