| 00:03:12 |
THAT, PLEASE JOIN US IN THE RECEPTION OUTSIDE. |
| 00:03:15 |
LADIES AND GENTLEMEN, CHARLES MURRAY. |
| 00:03:17 |
[APPLAUSE] |
| 00:03:27 |
THANK YOU VERY MUCH, ARTHUR.
|
| 00:03:28 |
BRADLEY LECTURES ARE USUALLY RESERVED FOR WORK THAT IS NICE TO BUT THE EMERGENCE OF CLASSES THAT DIVERGE ENCORE BEHAVIORS AND VALUES. |
| 00:05:12 |
SO WHAT AM I ARGUING? |
| 00:05:13 |
WELL, AMERICA HAS NEVER BEEN ABOUT MAXIMIZING WEALTH OR INTERNATIONAL POWER. |
| 00:05:21 |
AMERICA HAS ENGAGED IN WHAT I CALL AND OTHERS HAVE CALLED THE AMERICAN PROJECT. |
| 00:05:27 |
IT CONSISTS OF THE CONTINUING EFFORT BEGUN WITH THE FOUNDING, TO DEMONSTRATE THAT HUMAN BEINGS CAN BE LEFT FREE AS INDIVIDUALS AND FAMILIES TO LIVE THEIR LIVES AS THEY SEE FIT. |
| 00:05:38 |
THEY CAN COME TOGETHER VOLUNTARILY TO SOLVE THEIR JOINT PROBLEMS. |
| 00:05:43 |
THE POLICY BASED ON THAT IDEA LED TO A CIVIC CULTURE IS SEEN AS EXCEPTIONAL BY ALL THE WORLD. |
| 00:05:49 |
THAT CULTURE WAS SO WIDELY SHARED AMONG AMERICAN THAT IT AMOUNTED TO A CIVIL RELIGION. |
| 00:05:57 |
THE AMERICAN WAY OF LIFE, A PHRASE THAT WE ACTUALLY DON'T CARE MUCH ANYMORE, BUT USED TO BE TAKEN FOR GRANTED. |
| 00:06:05 |
THAT CULTURE IS UNRAVELING. |
| 00:06:08 |
IN THE BOOK AS IN TONIGHT'S LECTURE, I FOCUS ON WHAT HAPPENED, NOT WHITE. |
| 00:06:13 |
MY PRIMARY GOAL IS TO GET PEOPLE TO THINK ABOUT THE WAYS IN WHICH AMERICA IS COMING APART AT THE SEAMS, NOT SEAMS OF RACE OR ETHNICITY, BUT OF CLASS. |
| 00:06:21 |
AND THAT LEADS TO THE TITLE OF TONIGHT'S LECTURE, THE STATE OF WHITE AMERICA, 1960 TO 2010, FOUR DECADES. |
| 00:06:30 |
TRANSAMERICA MIGHT HAVE BEEN PRESENTED IN TERMS OF RACE AND ETHNICITY IN THE REFERENCE POINT HAS ALWAYS BEEN NON-LATINO WEIGHTS. |
| 00:06:37 |
WHEN I USED THE WORD WHITES FROM NOW ON, I'M ALWAYS REFERRING TO NON-LATINO WEIGHTS. |
| 00:06:44 |
WHEN YOU READ ABOUT THE POVERTY STATISTICS, WHICH ARE RIDICULOUS TO BLACK POVERTY RATE COMPARED TO THE WHITE POVERTY RATE OR THE LATINO COMPARED TO THE WAY POVERTY RATE. |
| 00:06:54 |
AND HERE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR HOW AMERICA IS DOING. |
| 00:06:57 |
THERE'S NOTHING WRONG WITH THAT. |
| 00:07:00 |
I READ A BOOK CALLED LOSING COMPARISONS. |
| 00:07:03 |
GROUND THAT IS FILLED WITH SUCH BUT IN DOING SO, WE LOSE SIGHT OF THE REFERENCE POINT IN WHAT I'M GOING TO DO IS TRACK THE REFERENCE POINT. |
| 00:07:13 |
THE BOOK IS EVIDENCE BASED ON WHITES AND MY REFERENCES THIS. |
| 00:07:20 |
DON'T KID YOURSELF THAT WE'RE LOOKING AT TRENDS THAT CAN BE REMEDIED BY ELIMINATING RACISM OR BY RESTRICT IMMIGRATION. |
| 00:07:29 |
ACTUALLY HAS FEW OPPORTUNITIES I WANT TO GIVE MY READERS AS POSSIBLE TO EXPLAIN AWAY IN THEIR OWN MINDS THE TRENDS THAT I DESCRIBED. |
| 00:07:38 |
ABOUT THREE FOURTHS OF MY PRESENTATION I FOCUSES ON THE NEW LOWER CLASS BECAUSE I THINK IT'S BETTER TO GIVE YOU A PRETTY GOOD IDEA OF THE DATA THAT IS INVOLVED IN DEMONSTRATING THAT JUST A FRAGMENTARY PRESENTATION TREND RATHER THAN TO GIVE YOU OF THE WHOLE ARGUMENT ABOUT. |
| 00:07:52 |
I'LL CONCLUDE WITH A FEW REMARKS OF THE SITUATION REGARDING THE NEW UPPER CLASS BUT WITHOUT MUCH DATA ATTACHED. |
| 00:08:00 |
FOR AMERICA TO WORK AS IT WAS INTENDED TO WEAR, MEANING SELF-GOVERNING CITIZENS RUNNING THEIR OWN MINDS WITHOUT HINDRANCE FROM THE GOVERNMENT AND WITHOUT MUCH HELP FROM THE GOVERNMENT, IT IS ENOUGH TO GET REQUIRED? |
| 00:08:17 |
THE LAST GREAT OR SOMETHING ELSE AMONG LIBERTARIANS, THIS IS A SOURCE OF CONTENTION AND MORE THAN A FEW OF MY LIBERTARIAN CO-CONSPIRATORS, SOME OF WHOM ARE HERE TONIGHT THINK THE RIGHT CONSTITUTIONAL LIMITS ON GOVERNMENT ARE ANATHEMA TO CULTURE CAN TAKE CARE OF ITSELF ONCE THOSE ARE IN PLACE. |
| 00:08:34 |
I'M VERY SYMPATHETIC TO THE NOTION THAT A LIMITED GOVERNMENT TENDS TO FOSTER VIRTUE OF THE PEOPLE, BUT I THINK THAT THE RIGHT PATH OR A NECESSARY NOT SUFFICIENT. |
| 00:08:46 |
IN TAKING THAT POSITION, AT LEAST A REALLY GOOD COMPANY, NAMELY ALL THE FOUNDERS AND EVERY OBSERVER OF THE AMERICAN EXPERIMENT TO WATCH DURING THE FIRST HALF CENTURY. |
| 00:08:56 |
FRANCE HAS GROWN, GERMANY WROTE IT ABOUT THE SAME TIME AS TOCQUEVILLE. |
| 00:09:01 |
QUOTE, NO GOVERNMENT COULD BE ESTABLISHED ON THE SAME PRINCIPLE AS THAT OF THE UNITED STATES WITH A DIFFERENT CODE OF MORALS. |
| 00:09:10 |
THE AMERICAN CONSTITUTION IS REMARKABLE FOR SIMPLICITY, CAN ONLY SUFFICE PEOPLE HABITUALLY CORRECT IN THEIR ACTIONS. |
| 00:09:17 |
CHANGE THE DOMESTIC HABITS OF THE AMERICAN, RELIGIOUS DEVOTION I RESPECT HER MORALITY AND WILL NOT BE NECESSARY TO CHANGE A SINGLE LETTER OF THE CONSTITUTION IN ORDER TO CARRY THE WHOLE FORM OF THEIR GOVERNMENT. |
| 00:09:31 |
I COULD GIVE YOU QUOTATIONS FROM EVERY FOUNDER IN EVERY EUROPEAN OBSERVERS SAY THE SAME THING OVER AND OVER. |
| 00:09:36 |
IT WAS NOT JUST BELIEVED, THE TAKEN FOR GRANTED THAT CERTAIN VIRTUES WERE REQUIRED OF A SELF-GOVERNING PEOPLE. |
| 00:09:43 |
FURTHERMORE, THERE WAS LOTS OF AGREEMENT ABOUT WHAT THIS VIRTUES WERE. |
| 00:09:48 |
DIFFERENT PEOPLE EMPHASIZE DIFFERENT THINGS, BUT FOR THESE MISSES COMPLETELY UNIVERSALLY UNDERSTOOD THAT THEY CAN BE CONSIDERED AS ESSENTIAL. |
| 00:09:57 |
TWO OF THEM ARE VIRTUES IN THE SOUTH. |
| 00:10:02 |
INDUSTRIOUS AND TWO OF THEM REFERS TO INSTITUTIONS THROUGH WHICH VIRTUE IS NURTURED. |
| 00:10:07 |
MARRIAGE AND RELIGION. |
| 00:10:10 |
FOR CONVENIENCE, I WILL REFER TO ALL FOUR AS THE FOUNDING VIRTUES. |
| 00:10:14 |
SO HOW HAS AMERICA BEEN DOING ON THE FOUNDING VIRTUES FOR 1960 TO 2010? |
| 00:10:20 |
TO TRACK WHAT'S BEEN GOING ON, I TOOK TWO AND A WHITE AMERICA. |
| 00:10:25 |
THE TOP 20% OF THE BOTTOM 30%. |
| 00:10:26 |
THOSE PERCENTAGES ARE BASED UPON NOW. |
| 00:10:27 |
THE WAY THAT AMERICA IS RIGHT IN 2010, 20% OF AGES 30 TO 49 HAVE COLLEGE DEGREES AND WERE EITHER IN A MANAGERIAL POSITION OR IN ONE OF THE TRADITIONAL PROFESSIONS BY WHICH I MEAN THAT IN, LOG, SCIENCES, ENGINEERING, ARCHITECTURE OR THEY WERE MARRIED TO SUCH A PERSON. |
| 00:10:47 |
THAT IS THE ENDPOINT. |
| 00:10:49 |
THE PEOPLE WHO IN 2010 THAT THE OCCUPATIONAL AND EDUCATIONAL CLASSICAL CRITERIA FOR THE UPPER MIDDLE CLASS. |
| 00:11:00 |
THE TOP 20% GO OUT WAY BACK TO 1960 BASED ON THOSE WITH THE OCCUPATION. |
| 00:11:05 |
STARTING% OF BIAS COMBINATION OF BUT THAT MEANS THERE'S SO MUCH EXPANSION OF COLLEGE EDUCATION BUT IN 1960 MY TOP 20% CONSISTS OF PEOPLE WHO HAD ONLY 42% OF COLLEGE DEGREES IN ONLY 35% OF THEM WERE IN THESE OCCUPATIONS. |
| 00:11:23 |
THE CHOICE OF 30% TO DEMARCATE THE BOTTOM COMES FROM THIS OBSERVATION. |
| 00:11:29 |
IN 2010, 30% OF WHITE AMERICANS AGES 30 TO 49 HAVE NO MORE THAN A HIGH SCHOOL DIPLOMA AND WORK IN A SKILLED OR UNSKILLED BLUE-COLLAR JOB, A LOW SKILLED SERVICE JOB WHERE THOSE GO WHITE COLLAR JOB OR WERE MARRIED TO SUCH A PERSON. |
| 00:11:43 |
SO THOSE ARE PEOPLE WHO FIT THE CLASSIC DEFINITION OF THE WORKING CLASS. |
| 00:11:49 |
I WENT OUT WAY BACK TO 1960, SELECTING THE BOTTOM 30% FROM DATABASES I WAS WORKING WITH. |
| 00:11:55 |
THE OCCUPATIONAL DISTRIBUTION OF THE BOTTOM 30% BACK IN 1960 WAS PRETTY MUCH THE SAME AS NOW. |
| 00:12:00 |
THE EDUCATIONAL DISTRIBUTION WAS RADICALLY DIFFERENT. |
| 00:12:04 |
80% OF THAT GROUP HAD NOT EVEN COMPLETED HIGH SCHOOL IN 1968 COMPARED TO ONLY 15% NOW. |
| 00:12:12 |
59% OF THAT GROUP HAD COMPLETED ONLY THE EIGHTH GRADE. |
| 00:12:19 |
BY THE WAY COME THE LAST COUPLE SENTENCES ILLUSTRATE A PROBLEM AS I AM PRESENTING THIS MATERIAL ORALLY INSTEAD OF ON PAPER. |
| 00:12:26 |
IT'S GOING TO GET CONFUSING IF I SAY MINIMART AND AS SUCH IS 80% SAID TAX COMPARED TO 15%. |
| 00:12:34 |
FOR CONVENIENCE, GOING TO REFER TO THE TOP 20% OF THE UPPER-MIDDLE-CLASS AND REFER TO THE BOTTOM 30%. |
| 00:12:45 |
WHILE WE HAVE THAT CAN 1960s THE UPPER-MIDDLE-CLASS PLUS MONEY FROM THE MIDDLE CLASS AND WHAT WE HAVE AT THE BOTTOM 30% IN 1960 WAS THE VERY LEAST ABLE OF THE WORKING CLASS. |
| 00:12:57 |
IF YOU THINK ABOUT IT FOR A WHILE, DOING IT THIS WAY STACKS THE EVIDENCE AGAINST -- EXCUSE ME, STACKS THE ODDS AGAINST ME FINDING EVIDENCE FOR MY THESIS, SOMETHING WE CAN TALK ABOUT IN THE Q&A. |
| 00:13:11 |
WHAT ABOUT 50% OF WHITES AGES 30 TO 49 TO BELONG TO NEITHER GROUP ON EVERY INDICATOR THAT WE WERE IN THE MIDDLE STATISTICALLY AS WELL AS CONCEPTUALLY. |
| 00:13:21 |
NOTE THAT I'VE BEEN SAYING 30 TO 49 ALL THE TIME. |
| 00:13:24 |
WHY? |
| 00:13:25 |
IS ANOTHER CASE OF TRYING TO SIMPLIFY THE INTERPRETATION OF POSSIBLE. |
| 00:13:29 |
THE ANALYSIS AS MUCH AS PEOPLE IN 30s AND 40s ARE ALMOST ALWAYS FINISHED WITH THE SCHOOL AND VERY SELDOM HAVE TAKEN EARLY RETIREMENT. |
| 00:13:40 |
THEY ARE IN THE PRIME OF LIFE. |
| 00:13:42 |
IN SHORT, IF THIS IS OVERSEEN AMONG WHITES AGES 30 TO 49, NOT GOING TO GET ANY BETTER IF YOU LOOK AT PEOPLE WHO WORK WAY. |
| 00:13:55 |
NOW TO THE TERMS, GOING TO START WITH MARRIAGE, WERE TALKING THAT DATA FROM THE CURRENT POPULATION SURVEY IN 1960 CENTS IS HERE TO 1960, JUST ABOUT EVERYBODY WAS MARRIED. |
| 00:14:07 |
80% OF THE UPPER-MIDDLE-CLASS AGES 30 TO 49 COMPARED TO 82% OF THE WORKING CLASSES OF 55 PERCENTAGE POINT DIFFERENCE. |
| 00:14:12 |
IT'S TRIVIAL. |
| 00:14:18 |
WHAT IS HAPPENED BY 2010? |
| 00:14:20 |
UPPER-MIDDLE-CLASS WITH HARDLY ANY CHANGE AT ALL. |
| 00:14:24 |
THE PERCENTAGE OF THE WORKING-CLASS AGES 30 TO 49 WHO ARE MARRIED 2010, 48%. |
| 00:14:35 |
THAT'S A 35 PERCENTAGE POINT GAP THAT WIDENS TILL 2010. |
| 00:14:41 |
THAT AMOUNTS TO A REVOLUTION AND THE SEPARATION OF CLASSES IN THIS COUNTRY. |
| 00:14:46 |
FURTHERMORE, THE DECLINE WAS CONTINUING AT THE 2010 WITH ONLY THE SLIGHTEST EVIDENCE OF FLAT IN THE DOWNWARD FLOW. |
| 00:14:54 |
NOTE THE DISCREPANCY BETWEEN WHAT I JUST SAID IN OUR COMMON IMPRESSIONS OF WHAT'S GOING ON WITH MARRIAGE. |
| 00:15:02 |
A VERY COMMON IMPRESSION IS THAT THE UPPER-MIDDLE-CLASS IS THAT PROBLEMS WITH MARRIAGE. |
| 00:15:07 |
THEY'RE THE ONES WHO GET DIVORCED ALL THE TIME. |
| 00:15:10 |
THEY'RE THE ONES IN WHICH GUYS TAKE MOTHERS OF THEIR CHILDREN IN 50s AND DIVORCE THEM AND THE GET TROPHY WIVES. |
| 00:15:17 |
THIS IS THE GROUP WHERE YOU HAVE CAREER EXCESS WELL-EDUCATED ALTOGETHER. |
| 00:15:19 |
YOUNG WOMAN WHO FORGO MARRIAGE AND THE COMMON IMPRESSION IS STRONG. |
| 00:15:25 |
TRADITIONAL VALUES THERE'S SO THAT'S FOUR SQUARE OPPOSITE TO THE REALITY. |
| 00:15:32 |
LIFE AS WELL. |
| 00:15:32 |
THE UPPER-MIDDLE-CLASS CONVERGYS IT HAS COLLAPSED IN THE WORKING CLASS. |
| 00:15:38 |
WHY IS IT A BIG DEAL? |
| 00:15:39 |
THAT FEWER THAN HALF OF WORKING-CLASS WHITES AGES 30 TO 949 ARE NOT MARRIED? |
| 00:15:46 |
EXCUSE ME, ARE MARRIED? |
| 00:15:48 |
REASONS. |
| 00:15:48 |
WELCOME IN THEIR SEVERAL ONE IS THAT MARRIAGE SYMBOLIZES MEN. |
| 00:15:56 |
MARRIED MEN -- INCOMES GO UP TO MY PRODUCTIVITY GOES. |
| 00:16:00 |
IN A MORE GENERAL SENSE, ADULT MALES WHO ARE SINGLE ARE COMING TO A DISHEVELED POPULATION, TO SHELVE THEM IN A FIRED UP WAYS CULTURALLY AND SOCIALLY INTEGRATED OR ASK AFTER THEY GET MARRIED WITH FAIRLY GOOD REGULARITY. |
| 00:16:17 |
ANOTHER REASON IS THAT SINGLE PEOPLE ARE NOT GOOD PRODUCERS OF SOCIAL CAPITAL. |
| 00:16:21 |
THIS AUTUMN COACHED LITTLE LEAGUE TEAM FENCHURCH CIVIC FUNDRAISER TAPE LEADING GETTING FOUR-WAY STOP SIGNS AT AN INTERSECTION WHERE CHILDREN PLAY. |
| 00:16:31 |
A THIRD MORE FUNDAMENTAL REASON IS THE ONE THAT TOCQUEVILLE SAW, WHICH IS WORTH QUOTING DIRECTLY. |
| 00:16:38 |
I CONSIDER THE DOMESTIC VIRTUE OF THE AMERICANS, DOMESTIC IN AMERICA AS THE PRINCIPAL VIRTUE REFERRING TO MARRIED LIFE SOURCE OF ALL THEIR OTHER QUALITIES. |
| 00:16:49 |
HE THEN GOES ON TO ENUMERATE THE OTHER QUALITIES AND CONCLUDES, IN SHORT, DOMESTIC VIRTUE DOES MORE FOR THE PRESERVATION OF PEACE AND GOOD ORDER THEM ALL THE LAWS FOR THE PURPOSE AND IS A BETTER GUARANTEE FOR THE PERMANENT VIEW THE AMERICAN GOVERNMENT THAN ANY WRITTEN INSTRUMENT TO THE CONSTITUTION OF DOES NOT ACCEPT IT. |
| 00:17:09 |
WELL, IT'S NOT JUST MARRIAGE -- GETTING MARRIED TO CHANGE WITH MARRIAGE. |
| 00:17:12 |
REGARD TO THE INSTITUTION OF THERE'S ALSO THE MATTER OF THE RISE OF EARTH TO SINGLE WOMEN. |
| 00:17:18 |
THE PERCENTAGE OF CHILDREN BORN TO WORKING-CLASS, SINGLE WOMEN AS A 1960 WAS AROUND 6%. |
| 00:17:31 |
RIGHT NOW, IT IS CLOSING IN ON THE%. |
| 00:17:33 |
I'M NOT TALKING ABOUT INNER-CITY BLACKS HERE. |
| 00:17:38 |
NOT TALKING ABOUT ALL THE POPULATIONS FOR EACH SINGLE BERTHS THAT HAVE BEEN THE TOPIC IS SO MUCH DISCUSSION OVER THE LAST FEW DECADES. |
| 00:17:43 |
WE ARE TALKING ABOUT NON-HISPANIC WHITES. |
| 00:17:48 |
WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? |
| 00:17:50 |
BECAUSE NO MATTER WHAT THE OUTCOME BEEN EXAMINED, WHETHER A SCHOOL DROPOUT OR EMOTIONAL HEALTH ARE IN EMPLOYMENT AS A DOLT FOR SUBSTANCE ABUSE OR ANY OTHER MEASURE OF HOW WELL OR POORLY CHILDREN DO HAVE MY ON AVERAGE, THE BEST OUTCOMES FOR CHILDREN OR TWO BIOLOGICAL PARENTS TO REMAIN MARRIED. |
| 00:18:09 |
DIVORCED PARENTS ARE SORTED NEXT ON THE LATTER IN TERMS OF OUTCOMES FOR CHILDREN IN THE WAY OF BOTTOM ARE THE OUTCOMES FOR CHILDREN BORN TO NEVER MARRIED WOMEN. |
| 00:18:18 |
ALL OF THESE STATEMENTS APPLY AFTER CONTROLLING FOR THE FAMILY SOCIOECONOMIC STATUS. |
| 00:18:25 |
THEY APPLY TO UNMARRIED WOMEN WHO ARE COHABITING WITH FATHER LIVING ALONE. |
| 00:18:27 |
THE CHILD AS WELL AS WOMEN I KNOW OF NO OTHER SET OF SOCIAL SCIENCE FINDINGS THAT THERE IS BROADLY ACCEPTED BY SOCIAL SCIENTISTS TO FOLLOW THE TECHNICAL LITERATURE ON THE LEFT AS WELL AS THE RIGHT. |
| 00:18:40 |
AND YET IT SEEMS IMPERMISSIBLE FOR POLITICIANS OR NETWORK NEWS FAMOUS PEOPLE TO ACKNOWLEDGE PROGRAMS OR ANY OTHER KIND OF THEM PUBLICLY. |
| 00:18:50 |
LET'S TURN TO INDUSTRIOUSNESS. |
| 00:18:54 |
IT'S JUST ONE TRADE CAN BE SAID TO BE DECIDING THAT THE TRADITIONAL AMERICAN DAD PROBABLY HAVE. |
| 00:19:02 |
ACTIVE OCCUPATION IS NOT GOING TO PRINCIPAL SOLOIST OF AMERICAN GREATNESS COME UP BUT ABSOLUTELY HAPPINESS AND FOUNDATION OF THE WRETCHED WITHOUT IT. |
| 00:19:12 |
ACTIVE OCCUPATION IS THE VERY SOUL OF AN AMERICAN. |
| 00:19:15 |
HE PURSUES IT IS THE FOUNTAIN OF ALL HUMANS LISTENING. |
| 00:19:19 |
TODAY, THE EUROPEANS SAY THAT AMERICANS LIVE TO WORK WHILE EUROPEAN WORK TO LIVE. |
| 00:19:24 |
I DON'T THINK THEY REALIZE HOW MANY OF US AMERICANS ON THE SIDE OF THE ATLANTIC SAY YEAH, THAT'S RIGHT AND NOBODY FEELS VERY FOR POOR EUROPEANS. |
| 00:19:35 |
I'M GOING TO FOCUS ON MILITARY BECAUSE THE NORMS ARE WOMEN WORK OUTSIDE THE HOME OF CHANGE SO DRASTICALLY OVER THE LAST 50 YEARS. |
| 00:19:41 |
FOR MEN, THE STATE ARE DAMAGED THE SAME. |
| 00:19:43 |
AS THEY'RE SUPPOSED TO WORK IN 1960 AND EVEN TODAY, GUYS ARE SUPPOSED TO WORK OR TO HELP THE MALE 30s AND 40s WHO IS NOT TRYING TO WORK NEEDS A REALLY GOOD EXCUSE. |
| 00:19:55 |
UPPER-MIDDLE-CLASS MALES AGES 30 TO 49 AND CHANGED AT ALL. |
| 00:20:00 |
IN 1960, ONE AND A HALF% WERE NOT IN THE LABOR FORCE. |
| 00:20:05 |
IN 2010, 2%. |
| 00:20:06 |
FOR WORKING-CLASS MALES, SAME FIGURE WENT FROM 5% IN 1968 WHEN IT HIT IT LOW TO 12% IN TWO DOZEN EIGHT. |
| 00:20:17 |
I CHOSE TO DOES NADER SAID IN 2010 BECAUSE THOSE NUMBERS CAME BEFORE THE RECESSION. |
| 00:20:21 |
THEY ARE EVEN HIGHER NOW. |
| 00:20:22 |
AMONG THOSE IN THE WORKING CLASS WHO HAVE JOBS COME THE PROPORTION WORKING FEWER THAN 40 HOURS A WEEK INCREASE FROM 13 TO 21% FROM 1960 TO 2008, AGAIN BEFORE RECESSION HIT. |
| 00:20:37 |
THE DETERIORATION OF INDUSTRIOUSNESS AMONG WHITE WORKING-CLASS MALES HAVE OCCURRED IN LABOR MARKETS THAT WERE BOOMING AS WELL AS AN SOFT ONES. |
| 00:20:49 |
ABOUT THIS ONE. |
| 00:20:49 |
I'M GOING TO SAY VERY LITTLE IF WERE TALKING ABOUT FELONIES SUCH AS HOMICIDE, AND BURGLARY, IT'S A CLOSED CASE. |
| 00:20:58 |
EVER SINCE CRIMINOLOGY BEGAN AS A DISCIPLINE, IT HAS BEEN FOUND THAT CRIMINALS WHO COMMIT OFFENSES ARE DRAWN OVERWHELMINGLY FROM THE WORKING CLASS AND ON DOWN. |
| 00:21:07 |
SO WHEN YOU CONTEMPLATE THE GREAT INCREASE IN CRIME THAT OCCURRED FROM 1960s INTO THE EARLY 1990s AND THE GREAT INCREASE FROM THE 1970s INDUCED TO THOUSANDS, YOU'RE LOOKING INTO INCREASES THAT IS THE DEMISE THE POPULATIONS OF WORKING-CLASS COMMUNITIES, NOT CHANGES THAT AFFECT MY STEP UPPER-MIDDLE-CLASS COMMUNITIES. |
| 00:21:33 |
ONE OF THE DIRTY SECRETS ABOUT THE LAST 50 YEARS IS BECAUSE CRIME HAS BEEN A HUGE TOPIC AND MANY OF THOSE DECADES, NOTHING MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THEY'VE NEVER BEEN DANGEROUS UPPER-MIDDLE-CLASS SUBURBS. |
| 00:21:43 |
PLACES. |
| 00:21:43 |
THEY ARE NOW. |
| 00:21:46 |
THEY WENT THEN. |
| 00:21:47 |
RELIGIOSITY. |
| 00:21:49 |
HARDLY ANY OF THE FOUNDERS WERE DEVOUT CHRISTIAN. |
| 00:21:54 |
JEFFERSON AND FRANKLIN WERE OPENLY TEDIOUS, BUT THEY WEREN'T THE ONLY PEOPLE WHO WERE ASSESSED IN TERMS OF RELIGIOUS THOUGHT DREAM. |
| 00:22:02 |
WASHINGTON AND HAMILTON AND MADISON WERE ALWAYS VERY VAGUE ABOUT THEIR ADHERENCE TO CHRISTIAN ORTHODOXY. |
| 00:22:11 |
AND YET, THEY WERE ALL UNITED IN THEIR BELIEF THAT RELIGION WAS ESSENTIAL TO THE HEALTH OF THE NEW NATION. |
| 00:22:17 |
THEY MADE THE CASE IN SIMILAR TERMS. |
| 00:22:21 |
MY COLLEAGUE, MICHAEL NOVAK, ONE SEMI-SUCCESS RATE. |
| 00:22:24 |
LIBERTY IS THE OBJECT OF THE REPUBLIC. |
| 00:22:26 |
VIRTUE NEEDS LIBERTY AND VIRTUE AMONG PEOPLE IS IMPOSSIBLE WITHOUT RELIGION. |
| 00:22:30 |
THEY ALL BELIEVED THAT DO NOT INCLUDE THOMAS JEFFERSON. |
| 00:22:35 |
THEY WERE MAKING AN EMPIRICAL ASSERTION, WHICH WESTERN EUROPE IS NOW PUTTING TO THE TEST, NAMELY THE MORAL CODES LOSE THEIR POWER EVENTUALLY IF THEY ARE NOT BASED ON RELIGION. |
| 00:22:48 |
THE JURY IS STILL OUT ON WHETHER THAT IS CORRECT OR NOT. |
| 00:22:54 |
BUT THE LAST FEW DECADES HAVE BROUGHT FORTH A VERY LARGE TECHNICAL LITERATURE ABOUT THE EFFECTS OF RELIGION ON MAINTAINING CIVIC LIFE IN THE EFFECTS OF RELIGION AND HUMAN FLOURISHING. |
| 00:23:07 |
FIRST, THERE IS THE ROLE OF ORGANIZED RELIGION AND GENERATING SOCIAL CAPITAL. |
| 00:23:10 |
HERE IS ROBERT PUTNAM IN BOWLING ALONE, THE LANDMARK BOOK ON SOCIAL CAPITAL IN ITS DECLINE. |
| 00:23:19 |
AS A RULE OF THUMB, EVIDENCE SHOWS THAT NEARLY HALF OF ALL ASSOCIATION MEMBERSHIPS OR CHURCH RELATED. |
| 00:23:23 |
HALF OF ALL PERSONAL PHILANTHROPY IS RELIGIOUS IN YOUR AND HALF OF ALL VOLUNTEERING OCCURS IN A RELIGIOUS CONTEXT. |
| 00:23:31 |
IT'S NOT JUST THE CONTRIBUTIONS THAT THESE RELIGIOUS BASE TYPE DVDs TO MAKE RELIGION SO IMPORTANT TO SOCIAL CAPITAL. |
| 00:23:40 |
PEOPLE WHO ARE RELIGIOUS ALSO ACCOUNT FOR A LARGE PROPORTION OF THE SECULAR SOCIAL CAPITAL IS PUTNAM DESCRIBES BOTH IN BOWLING ALONE AND HIS RECENT BOOK, AMERICAN GRAVES. |
| 00:23:49 |
APART FROM ON ANY SOCIAL CAPITAL IN GENERAL, CHURCHES SERVE AS A SOURCE FOR SUSTAINING DEMOCRATIC CITIZENRY. |
| 00:23:57 |
A VARIETY OF STUDIES HAVE FOUND THAT ACTIVE INVOLVEMENT IN CHURCH SERVICE SERVES AS A TRAINING CENTER FOR IMPORTANT CIVIC SKILLS AND ALL OF THESE RELATIONSHIPS HOLD TRUE AFTER CONTROLLING VARIOUS DEMOGRAPHIC IS TO ECONOMIC VARIABLES. |
| 00:24:12 |
BEYOND THESE KINDS OF CLAIMS COME YOU STARTED YOUR EVIDENCE FOR THE 1970s AND 1980s THAT RELIGIOUS FAITH IS EMPIRICALLY ASSOCIATE WITH GOOD SUCH AS BETTER PHYSICAL HEALTH, MENTAL HEALTH AND LONGEVITY. |
| 00:24:25 |
SOCIAL SCIENTISTS WHO HAVE NO PERSONAL INTEREST IN VINDICATING RELIGION AND IN FACT THEY THEMSELVES ARE USUALLY SECULAR HAVE BEEN BUILDING A RIGOROUS LITERATURE ON THESE ISSUES AND IT TURNS OUT MOST OF THE CLAIMS ARE TRUE AND THAT INCLUDES A WIDE VARIETY OF BENEFITS FOR THE SOCIALIZATION OF CHILDREN. |
| 00:24:41 |
SO I SUGGEST THAT WHATEVER YOUR PERSONAL RELIGIOUS BELIEFS MAY BE, FULL DISCLOSURE, I'M AN GNOSTIC WHO ATTENDS QUAKER MEETINGS WITH MY WIFE, YOU ARE ON WEAK EVIDENTIARY GROUND IF YOU THINK THAT THE HEALTH OF THE AMERICAN PROJECT DOES NOT AFFECT THE SECULARIZATION. |
| 00:25:03 |
THE MAIN STORYLINE HERE IS SECULARIZATION HAS OCCURRED ACROSS ALL SOCIAL CLASSES. |
| 00:25:11 |
REPRESENTED BY PEOPLE WHO THE HARD-CORE DEFINITION IS FORTHRIGHTLY SAY THAT THEY HAVE NO RELIGION. |
| 00:25:16 |
THAT NUMBER FOR ALL AMERICANS 1972 THE FIRST OR THE GENERAL AGES 30 TO 49 WENT FROM 4% IN SOCIAL SURVEY ASKED THIS QUESTION TO 21% IN 2010. |
| 00:25:28 |
VERY BIG INCREASE. |
| 00:25:30 |
THE CHANGES HAD BEEN LARGER IN THE WORKING CLASS THAN ANY UPPER-MIDDLE-CLASS, BUT THE EVEN GREATER CLASS DIFFERENCE HAS TO DO WITH WHAT I WILL CALL DE FACTO SECULARIZATION. |
| 00:25:46 |
DE FACTO SECULARIZATION -- SECULARISM IS WHEN HE TOLD THE INTERVIEWER INTERVIEWER YOU HAVE A RELIGION, BUT YOU DON'T GO TO WORSHIP SERVICES MORE THAN ONCE A YEAR. |
| 00:25:54 |
YET IF YOU COMBINE HARD-CORE SECULARISM AND DE FACTO SECULARISM, THE UPPER-MIDDLE-CLASS WENT FROM 26% IN 1972 TO 42% IN 2010. |
| 00:26:07 |
GOOD-SIZED INCREASE. |
| 00:26:08 |
THE PARALLEL NUMBERS FOR THE WORKING CLASS, 35% TO 61%. |
| 00:26:15 |
OR TO PUT IT ANOTHER WAY, A SUBSTANTIAL MAJORITY OF THE UPPER-MIDDLE-CLASS RETAINS SOME MEANINGFUL FORM OF RELIGIOUS INVOLVEMENT, WHEREAS JUST A SCHEDULING MAJORITY OF THE WORKING CLASS IS NOT. |
| 00:26:32 |
IT'S ANOTHER CASE OF DATA IS NOT MATCHING POPULAR IMPRESSIONS. |
| 00:26:34 |
I MEAN, THE IDEA THAT WE HAVE COME ESPECIALLY THOSE IN THE 90th IN WASHINGTON D.C. IS ELITE, THE UPPER-MIDDLE-CLASS THAT IT'S AMONG THE INTELLECTUAL THAT SECULARISM HAS TAKEN HOLD. |
| 00:26:47 |
THAT'S TRUE FOR INTELLECTUAL ELITE IN WASHINGTON D.C. AND NEW YORK CITY AND SAN FRANCISCO AND OVEREDUCATED PEOPLE LIKE US. |
| 00:26:56 |
IT IS NOT TRUE OF THE UPPER-MIDDLE-CLASS IN ATLANTA AND CHICAGO AND DES MOINES IN THE SAME WAY. |
| 00:27:04 |
FURTHERMORE, IT IS NOT TRUE THAT FUNDAMENTALISM HAS BEEN GROWING IN THE WORKING-CLASS AS A PERCENTAGE OF MEMBERS OF THE WORKING CLASS. |
| 00:27:11 |
AMONG THOSE WHO STILL PROFESS THEIR RELIGION HAS BEEN GROWING, BUT SOMEBODY NEEDS TO HAVE NOTICED IS RELIGIOUS INVOLVEMENT HAS PLUMMETED BY CORRUPT. |
| 00:27:22 |
DECAY IN THE FOUNDING VIRTUES I HAVE BEEN TALKING ABOUT THE AND THE WORKING CLASS, BUT I BEGAN BY SAYING THERE'S AN EMERGING NEW LOWER-CLASS. |
| 00:27:31 |
THAT'S NOT THE SAME THING. |
| 00:27:35 |
IT'S A SUBSET OF THE WORKING CLASS. |
| 00:27:40 |
IN MANY CASES, I HAD IN MIND PLEASANT PERSONALLY UNOBJECTIONABLE PEOPLE. |
| 00:27:46 |
SO DON'T THINK INITIALLY ABOUT MATHEMATICS AND DISORGANIZED WELFARE MOTHERS. |
| 00:27:51 |
A BETTER WAY TO THINK ABOUT MOST PEOPLE IN THE NEW LOWER-CLASS IS IN TERMS OF YOUR OWN EXTENDED FAMILY AND THE EXTENDED FAMILY OF YOUR FRIENDS. |
| 00:28:01 |
SOMEONE OR A COUPLE OF SOMEONE FOR NOT CIRCLE PROBABLY AS SOMEONE WHO IS QUITE PRESENT, YOU ENJOY THEIR COMPANY, BUT THEY'VE NEVER BEEN ABLE TO QUITE GET THEIR ACT TOGETHER. |
| 00:28:13 |
LOWER-CLASS INVOLVES THAT'S MOSTLY WHAT DO INDIVIDUALLY THEY'RE NOT MUCH OF A PROBLEM. |
| 00:28:18 |
IF ONE ADULT MALE LIVES WITH A HARD-PRESSED SISTER AND HER FAMILY BECAUSE HE JUST SOMEHOW CAN'T MANAGE TO HOLD ONTO A STEADY JOB, THAT DOES PUT A LOT OF STRESS ON THE SISTERS FAMILY, BUT THAT IS MANAGEABLE FOR THE COMMUNITY. |
| 00:28:34 |
IF A WHOLE LOT OF MALES IN THE COMMUNITY ARE LIVING OFF RELATIVES OR GIRLFRIENDS, THAT COMMUNITY. |
| 00:28:40 |
PUTS LOTS OF STRESS ON THE A MAN WHO FATHERS A CHILD WITHOUT MEANING TO THEM AND DOESN'T MARRY THE MOTHER MAY BE A NICE GUY WHO WAS SORRY THAT IT HAPPENED AND MAYBE HE TRIES TO DO WHAT HE CAN TO KEEP CONTACT WITH THE CHILD, BUT THAT DOESN'T CHANGE THE NATURE OF THE SITUATION THE CHILD CEASES. |
| 00:29:01 |
IF YOU HAVE A WHOLE BUNCH OF SUCH CHILDREN, DOESN'T MAKE DIFFERENCE IF THERE ARE NICE GUYS. |
| 00:29:06 |
YOU STILL HAVE THE SAME PROBLEMS WITH THE SOCIALIZATION OF THE NEXT GENERATION FOR REASONS BEYOND THE CAPACITY OF INDIVIDUAL FATHERS WHO CONTROL. |
| 00:29:14 |
PEOPLE WHO DON'T GO TO CHURCH HIM AND JUST AS MORALLY UPRIGHT AS THOSE WHO DO. |
| 00:29:18 |
BUT THEY DO NOT GENERATE THE SOCIAL CAPITAL THAT THE CHURCHGOING POPULATION GENERATE. |
| 00:29:25 |
IT'S NOT THEIR FAULT THAT SOCIAL CAPITAL DETERIORATES, BUT THAT DOESN'T MAKE THE DETERIORATION IN A LESS REAL. |
| 00:29:30 |
THE EMPIRICAL RELATIONSHIPS THAT EXIST AMONG MARRIAGE, INDUSTRIOUSNESS, HONESTY, RELIGIOSITY AND PRODUCTION OF A SELF-GOVERNING CITIZENRY MEANS THAT THE DAMAGE IS DONE, EVEN THOUGH NO ONE INTENDS IT. |
| 00:29:47 |
HOW BIG IS THE NEW LOWER-CLASS CLERICS WELL, THERE IS NO SHARP EDGES WITH ASSESSING WHO BELONGS AND WHO DOESN'T. |
| 00:29:55 |
STILL IT IS POSSIBLE TO GET A SENSE OF THE MAGNITUDE OF THE PROBLEM BY CONSIDERING THREE SETS OF PEOPLE WHO CREATE DIFFICULTIES FOR A FREE SOCIETY. |
| 00:30:03 |
THE FIRST OF THE SETS OF MEN WHO CAN'T MAKE EVEN A MINIMAL LIFTING. |
| 00:30:08 |
THE SECOND SINGLE WOMEN RAISING MINOR CHILDREN AND THE THIRD IS WHAT I WILL CALL SOCIAL ISOLATE. |
| 00:30:14 |
WHEN THEY'RE FULLY GROWN ADULTS BUT HAVE NO CHILDREN, NO GEISHA WITH A CHURCH OR WITH ANY LOCAL ACTIVITIES. |
| 00:30:20 |
SUCH PEOPLE ARE VERY RARE IN THE UPPER-MIDDLE-CLASS AND THEY ARE VERY COMMON IN THE WORKING CLASS. |
| 00:30:27 |
ALTOGETHER, USING ALGORITHMS, I TONIGHT. |
| 00:30:30 |
WILL NOT TRY TO DESCRIBE IF THE PROPORTION PORTION OF THE PROBLEMATIC POPULATION AT ABOUT 35% BEFORE THE RECESSION COMPARED TO ABOUT 10% IN 1964 IS IN THE UPPER-MIDDLE-CLASS, THOSE PROBLEMATIC POPULATIONS HAVE BEEN STEADY AT ABOUT 5%. |
| 00:30:47 |
THERE IS THAT DIVERGENCE AGAIN THAT IS DIFFERENT IN KIND FROM ANY IN THE NATION HAS EVER SEEN. |
| 00:30:53 |
HOW DO THESE NUMBERS TRANSLATE INTO REAL LIFE AND REAL COMMUNITIES COULD WELL, THEY TRANSLATE INTO AN UNRAVELING OF DAILY LIFE AND ALWAYS IN LARGE. |
| 00:31:09 |
GO TO ANY WORKING-CLASS COMMUNITY AND YOU WILL FIND A VARIETY OF PEOPLE WHO ARE MAKING LIFE DIFFICULT FOR THEIR FELLOWS AT HIS SINS. |
| 00:31:18 |
IT IS NOT JUST THEY ARE NICE GUYS WHO CAN'T HOLD A JOB. |
| 00:31:21 |
THEY'RE ALSO GROWING NUMBERS OF MEN WHO HAVE NO INTENTION OF WORKING IF THEY CAN HELP IT AND TO COMMENCE THEIR PREFERENCE NOT ONLY TO SUPPORT THEM, BUT SOMETIMES ENCRYPT THEM. |
| 00:31:33 |
NICE GUYS INADVERTENTLY FATHERED CHILDREN OR OTHERS WHO ABANDON THEIR GIRLFRIENDS AS SOON AS THEY LEARNED THAT A PREGNANCY AGAIN. |
| 00:31:40 |
HAS OCCURRED AND ARE NEVER SEEN ALONGSIDE THE SINGLE MOTHERS TRYING HARD TO BE GOOD PARENT OR MOTHERS WHO USE THEIR 3-YEAR-OLD TO BABYSIT THE INCIDENT WHILE THEY GO UP FOR THE NIGHT, PLUS THE COMMON OUTBREAK CASES OF PHYSICAL AND EMOTIONAL ABUSE OF CHILDREN BY THE CURRENT LIVE-IN BOYFRIEND OF A SINGLE WOMEN. |
| 00:32:01 |
CHURCHES THEY USED TO BE CENTERS CLOSE. |
| 00:32:04 |
FOR COMMUNITY COMMITTEE HAVE LOCAL SCHOOLS FIND THAT THEY CANNOT COUNT ON THE SAME KIND OF PARENT INVOLVEMENT THAT THEY USED TO TAKE FOR GRANTED. |
| 00:32:15 |
PROBLEMS THAT USED TO BE SOLVED BY THE NEIGHBORHOOD WITHOUT CALLING AND AUTHORITIES ARE NOT SOCIAL SERVICE BUREAUCRACIES. |
| 00:32:18 |
TRANSFERRED IMMEDIATELY TO THE IT'S NOT A CRISIS. |
| 00:32:24 |
IT IS, AS I SAID AT THE OUTSET, UNRAVELING OF AMERICA'S CIVIC CULTURE, FOCUSED ON THE BOTTOM THIRD OF WHITE AMERICAN AND ALMOST ALL OF THE TRENDLINES GOING THE WRONG DIRECTION IN THE GO DOWN. |
| 00:32:36 |
WORKING CLASS ARE CONTINUING TO SO WHATEVER IS BAD NOW ABOUT THE SITUATION IS GETTING WORSE. |
| 00:32:42 |
AND THERE'S ANOTHER THING TO KEEP IN MIND, THAT 50% OF THE POPULATION NOW TO TALK ABOUT. |
| 00:32:50 |
THEIR COMMENTS ARE GOING THE WRONG WAY AS WELL. |
| 00:32:53 |
THEY'RE GOING THE WRONG WAY AS FAST AS WORKING-CLASS, BUT THINGS ARE GETTING WORSE. |
| 00:33:00 |
OKAY, THAT'S ENOUGH BAD NEWS FOR A WHILE. |
| 00:33:01 |
HERE'S THE GOOD NEWS. |
| 00:33:02 |
THE GOOD NEWS IS THE UPPER-MIDDLE-CLASS SEEMS TO BE DOING PRETTY WELL. |
| 00:33:06 |
BUT THE BAD NEWS THEORIES WE ARE ALSO DEVELOPING WITHIN THE CLASS. |
| 00:33:10 |
UPPER-MIDDLE-CLASS A NEW UPPER AT THIS POINT WERE TALKING ABOUT ANOTHER HALF DOZEN CHAPTERS IN THE BOOK, SO I'M NOT GOING TO QUICKEST SKETCH. |
| 00:33:18 |
TRY TO GIVE YOU MORE THAN THE HERE'S THE ESSENCE. |
| 00:33:25 |
BACK IN 1994, RICHARDS JAY STEIN AND I ARGUED IN A BOOK CALLED "THE BELL CURVE" THAT THE NATION WAS IN THE MIDST OF A AFFILIATE. |
| 00:33:34 |
FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE IN THE MAJOR THREE TRENDS HAVE GATHERED FOR US AFTER WORLD WAR II AND WERE IN FULL CRY AS WE WROTE THE INCREASING MARKET VALUE FOR BRAINS, A COLLEGE SYSTEM THAT'S GOT ALMOST ALL OF THE YOUTH AND COLLEGE AND DID A REALLY GOOD JOB OF SORTING THE VERY SMARTEST ONES INTO A HANDFUL OF ELITE AND FINALLY, THE INCREASING COLLEGES. |
| 00:33:58 |
DEGREE TO WHICH THE MOST ABLE MARRIED AND PASS ON NOT ONLY FINANCIAL SUCCESS TO CHILDREN, BUT THEIR ABILITIES AS WELL. |
| 00:34:07 |
WE ALSO SAW AN INCREASING ISOLATION OF THE ELITES FROM THE REST OF THE COUNTRY AS THEY DEVELOPED A DISTINCTIVE CULTURE OF THEIR OWN. |
| 00:34:15 |
IN THE NEW BOOK, I TAKE A LOOK AT THE SITUATION 16 YEARS LATER. |
| 00:34:20 |
I'M ABLE TO HAVE NEW EVIDENCE THAT ALL THREE OF THOSE TRENDS ANNOUNCE THE NEW EVIDENCE ABOUT HER TRENDS AS WELL. |
| 00:34:28 |
AFTER ALL THE ABUSE THE BELL CURVE TO MY MOSTLY FOR COMPLETELY IRRELEVANT REASONS, I TRY HARD TO AVOID SAYING WE TOLD YOU SO. |
| 00:34:37 |
I DON'T THINK I'M ENTIRELY SUCCESSFUL NOT EFFORT. |
| 00:34:40 |
MANY OF YOU IN THIS ROOM, ME AMONG THEM BY THE WAY RECAPITULATE WHAT IS HAPPENING TO THE NATION AS A WHOLE AIRLINES. |
| 00:34:49 |
REGARDING A NEW UPPER CLASS AND MAYBE THAT'S THE BEST WAY TO TALK SINCE I'M SINCE I'M NOT GOING TO GET A LOT OF DATA RIGHT NOW. |
| 00:34:56 |
THE OLDER YOU ARE IN THIS ROOM, THE MORE LIKELY IT IS STATISTICALLY THAT YOUR PARENTS DID NOT HAVE COLLEGE EDUCATIONS AND THE MORE LIKELY YOU GREW UP IN A WORKING-CLASS OR A LOWER MIDDLE-CLASS HOME YOURSELF. |
| 00:35:07 |
YOU ON THE OTHER HAND, THOSE OF YOU WHO DIDN'T GROW UP IN SITUATIONS THAT THEY COULD GET A COLLEGE EDUCATION AND PROBABLY COLLEGE EDUCATIONS AND CHILDREN YOUR SPOUSE IS ALMOST ALL HAVE OF COLLEGE EDUCATION. |
| 00:35:21 |
THE YOUNGER YOU ARE IN THIS ROOM, THE MORE LIKELY IT IS THAT YOUR PARENTS WERE IN THE UPPER-MIDDLE-CLASS, WERE COLLEGE EDUCATED AND THAT YOU HAVE SPENT YOUR ENTIRE LIFE LIVING IN AN UPPER-MIDDLE-CLASS ENVIRONMENT. |
| 00:35:34 |
BECAUSE WE ARE IN THE SERMON WASHING IN THE WEEK, WE ALSO RECAPITULATE WHAT HAS HAPPENED RESIDENTIAL SEGREGATION. |
| 00:35:42 |
TO THE NATION IN TERMS OF THE MOST OF YOU LIVE IN CAPITOL HILL OR NORTHWEST WASHINGTON OR NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND THE ADJOINING SUBURBS ARE MONTGOMERY COUNTY. |
| 00:35:56 |
SOME OF YOU IN THIS ROOM PROBABLY LIVE AND EXCLUSIVE NEIGHBORHOODS SUCH AS GEORGETOWN OR MCLEAN, BUT A LOT OF YOU ARE PROBABLY A NEIGHBORHOOD LIKE KENSINGTON, MARYLAND, NORTH OF CHEVY CHASE, SOUTH OF WHEATON, WHERE I LIVE FOR SEVERAL YEARS BACK IN THE 1970s. |
| 00:36:14 |
AND AROUND WASHINGTON D.C., CHAS INTENDED TO AS A PRETTY RUN-OF-THE-MILL SUBURBAN NEIGHBORHOOD. |
| 00:36:20 |
WELL, LUSCIOUS NIIHAU ORDINARY IT ISN'T. |
| 00:36:27 |
TAKE FOR EVERY ZIP CODE IN THE UNITED STATES THE MEDIAN INCOME ASSET THE 1960s -- SORRY, 2000 CENTS IS UNDER PERCENTAGE OF ADULTS AGE 25 YEARS OR OLDER WITH COLLEGE DEGREES AND EVERY ZIP CODE IN THE COUNTRY AS OF THE 2710. |
| 00:36:45 |
THEN COMBINED IN A SINGLE INDEX AND RANK ORDER OF THE ZIP CODES IN THE UNITED STATES FROM TOP TO BOTTOM AND CREATE A PERCENT TOTAL SCORE FOR EACH ZIP CODE THAT'S JUST LIKE THE PERCENTILE SCORES AND ACADEMIC TESTS. |
| 00:37:00 |
IF YOUR IN THE 80th PERCENTILE IN THE SAT, THAT MEANS THAT ONLY 20 PEOPLE OUT OF EVERY 100 GOT A HIGHER SCORE THAN YOU DID AMONG PEOPLE HE TOOK A TEST. |
| 00:37:09 |
IF YOU'RE IN A ZIP CODE THAT IS THE 80th PERCENTILE, WHAT THAT MEANS IF OF ALL THE AMERICANS IN THE UNITED STATES, ONLY 20 LIVE IN A ZIP CODE WITH A COMBINATION OF EDUCATION AND INCOME IS HARD AS YOUR ZIP CODES. |
| 00:37:25 |
SO FOR EXAMPLE, LET'S TAKE ZIP CODE 20007. |
| 00:37:26 |
THAT'S GEORGETOWN. |
| 00:37:32 |
IS PERCENTILE SCORES IS 99.6. |
| 00:37:32 |
[LAUGHTER] |
| 00:37:37 |
OUT OF ALL THE ZIP CODE IN NORTHWEST WASHINGTON, WEST OF THE PARK, ROCK CREEK PARK IN THE TWO TIERS OF ZIP CODE ABOVE THE BORDER BETWEEN MONTGOMERY COUNTY, IT IS CORRECT THAT KENSINGTON HAS THE LOWEST. |
| 00:37:55 |
96.7. |
| 00:37:57 |
ALL THE OTHERS ARE IN THE 99th PERCENTILE. |
| 00:38:01 |
TO THOSE OF US WHO LIVE IN WASHINGTON, LOOKS LIKE A WORLD OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN GEORGETOWN AND KENSINGTON COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE NATION THEY ARE BOTH AT THE TIPPY TOP OF THE PYRAMID. |
| 00:38:12 |
THAT WOULDN'T BE SO BAD. |
| 00:38:13 |
BY THE WAY, DOES HE LIVE IN VIRGINIA, I SHOULD MAKE YOU OUT. |
| 00:38:19 |
ALL THE WAY FROM GREAT FALLS DOWN TO ARLINGTON, ALL THE ZIP CODE, 99th PERCENTILE. |
| 00:38:24 |
NOW, THIS WOULDN'T BE SO BAD IF MOST OF THE PEOPLE WHO CAME TO WASHINGTON HAD GROWN UP IN LIVE. |
| 00:38:28 |
PLACES WHERE MOST AMERICANS TO I MEAN, CITIES LIKE BUFFALO RPR IO OR WACO OR TRENTON OR IN BECAUSE THAT'S WHERE MOST SMALL TOWNS OR RURAL AREAS AMERICANS STILL LIVE. |
| 00:38:40 |
BUT ONCE AGAIN, THE OLDER YOU ARE LIVING IN THIS ROOM, BEING THIS ROOM, THE OLDER YOU ARE COME THE LESS LIKELY IT IS YOU GREW UP IN A PLACE LIKE THAT. |
| 00:38:52 |
I'M SORRY. |
| 00:38:53 |
I HAD JUST GOTTEN THAT SENTENCE COMPLETELY WRONG. |
| 00:38:58 |
THE OLDER YOU ARE, THE MORE LIKELY IT IS THAT YOU GREW UP IN A PLACE LIKE THAT AND THAT YOU BRING WITH YOU, TO YOUR MATURE SUCCESS, MEMORIES OF LIFE IN THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY. |
| 00:39:11 |
THE YOUNGER YOU ARE, THE MORE LIKELY THAT YOU GREW UP NOT ONLY IN THE UPPER-MIDDLE-CLASS SUBURB, BUT ONE THAT WAS A SUBURB OF NEW YORK, CHICAGO, ST. LOUIS, DALLAS, SEATTLE OR THE OTHER NATION CITIES AND THAT YOU'VE NEVER HAD AN EXPERIENCE WITH ANY OTHER KIND OF AMERICA EXCEPT MAYBE FOR FOUR YEARS WHEN HE LIVED ATTACHED TO, BUT NOT AS A SMALL-TOWN THAT HOUSED WILLIAMS COLLEGE OR MIDDLEBURY COLLEGE OR SOME OTHER ELITE SCHOOL WHERE YOU ATTENDED. |
| 00:39:41 |
SPEAKING OF ELITE SCHOOLS, THAT'S ANOTHER CONSIDERATION THAT COMES INTO PLAY ONLY TALK ABOUT THE ISOLATION OF THE UPPER CLASS. |
| 00:39:48 |
A GREAT MANY OF THOSE WHO WILL DELETE POSITIONS HAVE NOT ONLY BEEN IN THE UPPER-MIDDLE-CLASS BUBBLE, BUT IN THE ELITE COLLEGE BUBBLE AS WELL. |
| 00:39:59 |
ONE OF THE CHAPTERS ABOUT THE NEW UPPER CLASS TRACKS RESIDENCES OF MORE THAN 14,000 GRADUATES OF HARVARD, YALE AND PRINCETON HAVE ASSEMBLED THE ZIP CODES WHERE THEY LIVED WHEN THEY WERE IN THEIR 40s ARE REALLY FIT THESE. |
| 00:40:17 |
THE HIGHEST GRADUATES OF THOSE THREE INSTITUTIONS IS IN THE ZIP CODE IS WEST OF CAMBRIDGE, MASSACHUSETTS. |
| 00:40:22 |
THE SECOND HIGHEST DENSITY CONCENTRATIONS OF SUCH PEOPLE IS AND PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY. |
| 00:40:30 |
THE THIRD-HIGHEST ISN'T THE ZIP CODE OF NORTHWEST WASHINGTON AND THE ADJACENT MONTGOMERY COUNTY ZIP CODES. |
| 00:40:36 |
NATION. |
| 00:40:36 |
THIRD-HIGHEST IN THE ENTIRE WHEN I ASKED MY AEI COLLEAGUE, MICHAEL BARAN TO LIMIT THE DIRECTORY FOR HIS CLASS AS PART OF HIS RESEARCH, HE WROTE ME AN E-MAIL ABOUT THE PLACE IN NORTHWEST D.C. WHERE YOU LIVED FOR 31 YEARS. |
| 00:40:53 |
I'M A FORMER BLOCK IN WASHINGTON D.C., WHERE MINIX OR NEIGHBORS, PRINCETON 57 IN RADCLIFFE 66, THE FOLKS NEXT TO THEM AND THE PEOPLE ACROSS THE STREET CAMILLE 71 NEL LAW SCHOOL 74 CLASSMATES, HARVARD 66 AND YELLOW 69, JUST A TYPICAL AMERICAN NEIGHBORHOOD IN OTHER WORDS. |
| 00:41:12 |
[LAUGHTER] |
| 00:41:15 |
WHEN THE PEOPLE IN THE REST OF THE COUNTRY SAY THAT AMERICA DOESN'T INHABIT THE SAME PLANET THEY DO, THEY ARE EXAGGERATING ONLY A LITTLE. |
| 00:41:25 |
THE SAME THING APPLIES TO THE NEW UPPER CLASS ACROSS THE COUNTRY, ESPECIALLY IN THE CITIES WITH THE MOST POWERFUL FIGURES IN THE ENTERTAINMENT, INDUSTRY'S LIVES. |
| 00:41:33 |
NEWS, I.T. OR FINANCIAL THE NEW YORK CITY'S, LOS ANGELES AND SAN FRANCISCO AND ITS ENVIRONMENTS. |
| 00:41:47 |
WHAT A PICTURE I AM PAINTING. |
| 00:41:48 |
A NEW LOWER CLASS WHOSE MEMBERS ARE INCREASINGLY UNSUITED FOR CITIES AND WE SOCIETY. |
| 00:41:53 |
AN UPPER-CLASS INCREASINGLY ISOLATED FROM IT. |
| 00:41:55 |
AN UPPER-CLASS INCREASINGLY AN UPPER-CLASS INCREASINGLY ISOLATED FROM IT. |
| 00:41:57 |
ISOLATED FROM IT. |
| 00:41:58 |
AN UPPER-CLASS INCREASINGLY ISOLATED FROM IT THE AND HOSTILE TOWARDS THE MAINSTREAM CULTURE. |
| 00:42:09 |
GIVEN THAT KIND OF TORTURE, WHAT DOES THE FUTURE LOOK LIKE? |
| 00:42:12 |
THAT'S ANOTHER FOUR CHAPTERS OF THE BOOK I'M NOT GOING TO SAY MUCH ABOUT EXCEPT A FEW THINGS. |
| 00:42:17 |
IF YOU'RE A PESSIMIST, YOU CAN FIND LOTS OF REASONS TO THINK THAT ALL IS LOST FOR THE AMERICAN PROJECT. |
| 00:42:25 |
THE PARALLEL THAT KEEPS NAGGING AT ME IS ROME. |
| 00:42:31 |
IN TERMS OF WEALTH AND MILITARY MIGHT AND TERRITORIAL REACH, ROMA REACHED ITS APOGEE. |
| 00:42:39 |
I'VE GIVEN AUTHORITY IN SAYING THIS, WHICH IS THAT SHE AND THE INSANE EMPERORS REMAIN POWERFUL FOR A FEW CENTURIES BEYOND THAT. |
| 00:42:47 |
SO WHAT IS THE END OF THE ROPE AND REPUBLIC BACK IN 49 B.C. A BIG DEAL OR NOT? |
| 00:42:54 |
IN TERMS OF THE WEALTH AND POWER AND TERRITORIAL REACH OF ROMA WASN'T A BIG DEAL. |
| 00:43:00 |
OR FOR ROMANS WHO TREASURE THE REPUBLIC, IT WAS A TRAGEDY. |
| 00:43:03 |
AND IT WAS A TRAGEDY THAT NO AMOUNT OF IMPERIAL SPLENDOR GOOD READING. |
| 00:43:07 |
THE UNITED STATES FACES A SIMILAR PROSPECT. |
| 00:43:13 |
CONTINUING ON IT WROTE FOR THE EUROPEAN-STYLE STATE REMAINING AS POWERFUL AS EVER. |
| 00:43:28 |
I'M NOT EVOKING THE IMAGE OF THE UNITED STATES. |
| 00:43:29 |
WE CAN HAVE A PRESIDENT TO THE CONGRESS AND THE SUPREME COURT, BUT THE UNITED STATES WILL BE ONE MORE IN HISTORY IS PER SESSION OF DOMINANT NATIONS. |
| 00:43:38 |
EVERYTHING THAT MAKES AMERICA DISAPPEARED. |
| 00:43:41 |
EXCEPTIONAL WILL HAVE SO THERE ARE MANY DAYS THAT A WAKE-UP AS A PESSIMIST, BUT BY MIDMORNING I START TO RECALL A FEW BRIGHTER SPOT. |
| 00:43:52 |
THE FIRST IS OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT DECADE OR SO, WE IN THE UNITED STATES ARE GOING TO BE IMPLODE. |
| 00:44:00 |
WATCHING THE EUROPEAN MODEL IT'S GOING TO IMPLODE IN SOME COUNTRIES THAT DO NOT PERMIT MASSIVE DEMONSTRATION BECAUSE THEY CAN'T PAY THE BILLS ANYMORE AND THEY'RE GOING TO GO BANKRUPT, THE WELFARE STATE FAIR. |
| 00:44:12 |
IN OTHER COUNTRIES THAT DO ENCOURAGE MASSIVE IMMIGRATION TO HELP PAY THE BILLS, THEY WILL UNDERGO CULTURAL TRANSFORMATIONS IN PEOPLE WITH NEW POLITICAL POWER IN THOSE COUNTRIES ARE NOT GOING TO BE PEOPLE WHO ARE REALLY FOND OF THE SWEDISH MODEL OF THE WELFARE STATE. |
| 00:44:28 |
SO AS WE WATCH WHAT HAPPENS TO THE WELFARE STATE OVER THE NEXT DECADE, IT'S GOING TO BE A CAUTIONARY EXAMPLE IN TRYING TO ATTRACTIVE. |
| 00:44:38 |
EMULATE BULLET GLASS LESS THE INCREASING OTTERNESS THAT THERE HAS TO BE AN ALTERNATIVE. |
| 00:44:46 |
WE ARE THE RICHEST COUNTRY ON EARTH WHICH A COUPLE HUNDRED MILLION PEOPLE YOU DON'T GET A PENNY IN SUPPORT. |
| 00:44:53 |
THE ENTIRE WELFARE STATE CAN DISAPPEAR AND THEY WOULD BE JUSTIFIED IN YET SPEND A COUPLE TRILLION DOLLARS THE YEAR IN IN TRANSFER PAYMENTS. |
| 00:45:04 |
FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO DON'T THINK THE SOCIAL SECURITY AND MEDICARE ARE TRANSFER PAYMENTS, YOU HAVE NOT BEEN PAYING ATTENTION. |
| 00:45:11 |
FOR PEOPLE LIKE ME, THIS IS ALREADY CRAZY. |
| 00:45:15 |
WE ARE LOOKING AT A SITUATION IN WHICH WE CAN SAVE A FEW TENS OF BILLIONS OF DOLLARS WITHOUT HURTING ANYBODY. |
| 00:45:24 |
WE ARE LOOKING AT A SITUATION WHERE YOU CAN SAVE A FEW TRILLION DOLLARS WITHOUT HURTING ANYBODY. |
| 00:45:29 |
AS THE AMOUNTS OF MONEY RETRANSFER CONTINUE TO BALLOON OVER THE NEXT YEARS, AT SOME POINT WILL BECOME OBVIOUS TO LIBERTARIANS LIKE ME THAT THIS IS CRAZY. |
| 00:45:39 |
IT WILL BECOME OBVIOUS TO EVERYONE WHO IS NOT CERTIFIABLE. |
| 00:45:43 |
THERE MUST BE ANOTHER EASIER WAY OF DEALING WITH HUMAN NEEDS IN THIS BEHEMOTH OF THE VAST WELFARE STATE. |
| 00:45:54 |
A THIRD CONSIDERATION IS THE UNITED STATES HAS A HISTORY OF CONFOUNDING PESSIMIST OR WHENEVER THE AMERICAN PROJECT HAS SUFFERED A WOUND THAT LOOKS AS IF IT MIGHT BE FATAL, SOMEHOW THINGS HAVE ALWAYS FOR DOUBT MORE OR LESS. |
| 00:46:08 |
CAN IT HAPPEN AGAIN? |
| 00:46:11 |
WHY NOT. |
| 00:46:13 |
THE PHENOMENON OF THE TEA PARTY I THINK IS A CASE IN POINT. |
| 00:46:15 |
IF YOU GO TO THE TEA PARTY'S WEBPAGE, THEIR LIST OF CORE PRINCIPLES IN TOTAL READS, INDIVIDUAL FREEDOM, LIMITED FEDERAL GOVERNMENT, PERSONAL RESPONSIBILITY IS, FREE MARKETS AND RETURNING POLITICAL PARTY TO THE STATES AND PEOPLE. |
| 00:46:31 |
THAT'S IT AND THERE'S NOT A SINGLE ITEM IN THE LIST THAT TO ME AT BE CONTROVERSIAL WITH REGARD TO THE REGIONAL NATURE OF STANDS FOR. |
| 00:46:39 |
THE AMERICAN PROJECT IN WHAT IT IT REMAINS TRUE HOWEVER THAT THE TEA PARTY ITSELF IS CONTROVERSIAL. |
| 00:46:46 |
ANY TEA PARTY EVENT IN WHICH ANYBODY EXPRESSES IT WITH A NO NOTHINGISM OR THEOCRATIC AMBITIONS OR ETHNOCENTRISM GETS PLENTY OF COVERAGE ON THE NEW SQUARE IS THE HUNDREDS OF OTHER TEA PARTY EVENTS WOULD HAVE NONE OF THAT FOCUS ON THE CORE ISSUES -- CORE PRINCIPLES OF AMERICA THAT THEY DON'T GET THE ATTENTION. |
| 00:47:06 |
I ALSO HAVE TO ADMIT SOME OF THE MORE VISIBLE PEOPLE WHO SET THEMSELVES UP AS SPEAKING FOR THE TEA PARTY IS JUST AS OBJECTIONABLE TO ME. |
| 00:47:14 |
SO THERE ARE PROBLEMS WITH THE TEA PARTY, BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS THIS. |
| 00:47:20 |
A HUGE GRASSROOTS MOVEMENT HAS ARISEN SPONTANEOUSLY IN DEFENSE OF THE CURRENT DEPOSED THAT ANIMATED THE AMERICAN PROJECT. |
| 00:47:28 |
IN THE SPRING OF 2009, IT DIDN'T LOOK REMOTELY POSSIBLE THAT SUCH A THING COULD HAVE HAPPENED. |
| 00:47:34 |
A LOT OF PEOPLE HAVE GONE BROKE IT IN AGAINST THE RESILIENCE OF THE AMERICAN PROJECT AND I'M NOT ABOUT TO TAKE THAT CHANCE WHEN I GET AROUND TO SETTING DOWN MY BEST GUESS ABOUT THE PROSPECTS FOR THE FUTURE. |
| 00:47:48 |
FROM THE BEGINNING, AMERICA HAS HAD DEFECTS LARGE AND SMALL, INCLUDING THE LARGEST, THE UNBEARABLE INTERNAL CONTRADICTION OF SLAVERY AND ITS AFTERMATH. |
| 00:48:01 |
BUT THE HISTORY OF THE AMERICAN PROJECT TAKEN IN ITS GRAND SWEEP HAS BEEN ONE OF BREATHTAKING PROGRESS IN WHICH FREE PEOPLE WITHOUT THE DICTATES OF GOVERNMENT STEADILY REMEDIATED THE NATION'S SHORTCOMINGS WHILE CRETINOUS AS A CULTURE THAN SPIRIT OF NOT ONLY AREA PEOPLE, BUT THOSE AROUND THE WORLD WHO CAME HERE TO SHARE IT. |
| 00:48:22 |
WE ARE NOW IN A PHASE WHEN WE STILL HAVE TO CONVINCE MANY OF OUR FELLOW CITIZENS THAT THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT IS AKIN TO THE ROOSTER WHO THINKS IT'S GROWING MAKES THE SUNRISE. |
| 00:48:35 |
BUT THAT IS A CASE THAT CAN BE MADE, NOT JUST WITH FREDERICK, BUT WITH EMPIRICALLY WITH NUMBERS, DATA, EVIDENCE. |
| 00:48:47 |
REALITY. |
| 00:48:47 |
WHAT WE HAVE GOING FOR US IS THE FROM THE FOUNDING THROUGH HIS FIRST TWO CENTURIES, THE UNITED STATES FOSTERED A DIFFERENT WAY FOR PEOPLE TO LIVE TOGETHER, UNIQUE AMONG THE NATIONS OF THE EARTH THAT IS STILL IMMEASURABLY PRECIOUS TO SOME VERY LARGE NUMBER OF AMERICANS WHO ARE DETERMINED THAT THIS WAY OF |